July 4th in the Tropics - Mother Nature Gives a Pass on Tropical Trouble & Memories..

Notice the extremely strong surge of tropical moisture....with no named system....that is streaming north into the Florida Panhandle which has resulted in flooding, downed trees and a messy July 4th. Also ...notice as I said the high has edged it's way onto the coastline where pop up showers will cause storms, but may give those in coastal cities a chance of a day at the beach, a picnic in their favorite park and fireworks at night.



The Gulf of Mexico is still highlighted with a large yellow circle. The discussion is below. Note two things here, one that it is predicting more rain flowing North and secondly a system forming later in the week as a real tropical low moves west into this mess and convects it's way into a possibly named system in the GOM. Maybe.  Note it's "discussion" not a forecast, but we all live and die by these forecasts waiting breathlessly every six hours to see what the NHC has to say on the tropics. Okay.. maybe not breathlessly but significantly to use a term they love.



"GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF N OF 21N W OF 88W EXTENDING FROM 
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSOURI/KANSAS BORDER AND SUPPORTING A 
SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 04/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF FROM 
NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 28N91W 
TO 26N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 
60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THE S PORTION OF THIS SURFACE 
TROUGH HAS REMAINS OVER THE S GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
EXTENDING FROM 24N90W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
ALONG 25N85W TO OVER NE FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA AND IS 
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS E OF 90W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BASIN 
COVERS THE FAR E GULF. N GULF SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE 
W GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE TROUGH 
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH LATE TODAY THEN MOVE W ACROSS 
THE FAR SW GULF AND INTO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THROUGH LATE FRI. 
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E GULF 
THROUGH SAT. A SECOND SURFACE LOW MAY FORM OVER THE N/CENTRAL 
GULF SUN THEN SHIFT N INTO SW LOUISIANA THROUGH MON."

The cameras peering down from outer space show us this beautiful view:



Is that beautiful or what?
(Nice wave off of Africa...)

You can see in the image below how the moisture is separating and being pulled...sucked..north towards the Panhandle...Georgia and Alabama and then north into the Ohio valley. The trough is stretching and the remaining moisture is trapped a bit down near the tip of the Yucatan.If a system could stay low and form somewhere between the tip of the Yucatan and Cuba and stay south a bit away from the shear zone it could and I did say "could" develop a bit.. maybe.  This is a real maybe sort of day...maybe I'll have blue skies for a while today and maybe I won't.



The map showing possible areas of development is more like maybe, maybe and more maybe.



Oh, look there's a wave off of Africa ;)

Note the "shear map" shows my thoughts in vivid blue which means "less shear" and again if some little tropical system could keep it's head down low.. it's possible it could get into the lite shear zone and make some tropical action.



As for me...I'm staring at the sunshine out the window and smiling. I know it may rain later a bit, but I got things to do and nothing to do and really looking forward to enjoying the day.

As for me...........will probably

be

here... but you never know for sure.. 

might go for a long ride to some other cute spot

but last year this was the place to be and I sorted waited here for the 4th 

since there was nothing tropical going on in Florida

:)

Works for me!

Then again fireworks over the Neuse in Wilmington would be nice too...

IF you are in Miami the best place to watch fireworks sometimes is from a balcony looking over the River or the Bay.... up and across the beautiful city... most memorable parties in recent years ended on a balcony somewhere watching the show in all directions...after a day of fun with the family...okay my family 

If I was in Miami I'd be up in Hollywood on the beach..enjoying the sun, the palm trees and some cute place to get a drink or some ice cream and watching the fireworks over the inky darkness of the Ocean from one of my favorite "boardwalks" or places to hang out when home in FL.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMk5Hlr22d4

Watch the youtube video and you get the idea... 

whether you are partying hardy on South Beach or a backyard BBQ or hanging out on the Boardwalk..

Have fun!

A note of caution here regarding the July 4th. There are strong rip currents over the next several days on the Outer Banks so be careful. Someone died yesterday on Ocean Isle Beach, which is one of my favorite beaches, so I don't want to be a party pooper but stay informed on local beach conditions where ever you live if you are going to the beach.  Use suntan lotion too! Pay attention to thunderstorms. Enjoy the day, but stay safe! Keep this day filled with only happy memories.


Besos Bobbi
Have a wonderful July 4th... make happy memories and give thanks for living in the USA and all our early founders did to make this the wonderful country we are blessed to enjoy daily!

And, if you want to buy one of those beautiful condos downtown or a home on Miami Beach or anywhere in Miami..check out my son Levi. Missing him this July 4th..he and his friends gave the BEST July 4th parties when they were kid's growing up. And, few people love and know Miami as much as Levi Meyer who is amazingly the 4th generation in my family to be involved with Florida Real Estate!

Would you not love that view? I know I would...

http://www.levimeyer.com/22666/dsp_agent_page.php/175250

Missing Levi today...me and Levi and his wedding down on Old Culter Road on Biscayne Bay.

and then they partied... in the sunset..   

Okay.....back to the weather... love the memories... go out and make happy  memories today! That's an ORDER! Mother Nature gave y'all a pass on tropical troubles today so go out and enjoy it. Mother Nature will take a rain check later in the season.. I promise you.

How's the weather where you are today??

Put your zipcode in this link and find out what your local weather is...before leaving the house:

I feel like we should put a red heart over some part of this map for July 4th..fireworks maybe? Then again he does have a flag...

http://www.mikesweatherpage.com/



http://www.weather.gov/