NHC Notices the Obvious... But says it's nothing (Yellow Circle 0%)

Down off the coast of South America at the entrance to the Caribbean is a small tropical wave that is being watched by the NHC ...but being given a Zero Chance of forming... for now.

In the words of Jack Beven at the NHC:

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN"

Hmmmnnn, how bout that?

So...we got something to watch...even if it's chances are slim to none.

The map below shows wind shear... worth taking note depending on where this goes, however remember that what shear giveth it can take away!

Note this wave has made it across the Atlantic and has been trying to "roll" but having problems. Worth watching.

Maybe if it got some model support it might get bumped up to 10%. The models do show a small weakness in the ridge there and again... keep watching...

Besos Bobbi

Ps Worth remembering that this if this model continues west it would get into the area where the models earlier had shown something forming in the Caribbean...or it could shuffle wNw up to where the last few of these waves have gone.