Tropical Storm Barry Makes the Grade and Becomes 2nd Named Storm in the Atlantic Basin

So, Avila seals the deal and upgrades Barry based on recon data.

Tropical Storm BARRY Update Statement

Atlantic Tropical Storm BARRY TROPICAL Cyclone Update

06/19/2013 02:44 PM EDT

000
WTNT62 KNHC 191844
TCUAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
145 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW TROPICAL
STORM BARRY...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE
SEASON. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT REGULAR ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.


SUMMARY OF 145 PM CDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Barry had a small window for upgrade, but his slow forward speed helped him get the upgrade as he is moving slowly over warm water. Like a quarterback sitting easily in the pocket with good protection taking all the time in the world to find his favorite receiver!

"BARRY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION  WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARS SPEED IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...AND THE CENTER
BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ UNTIL
DISSIPATION. "

Key West Weather vaguely mentions the sleeping pink elephant out in the Atlantic that has no model support currently, but is hard to ignore and I'm not going to ignore it. If you wanted an official retread of the NWS forecast like you get on TV you wouldn't be here now would you? It's just a wave, but I'm not ignoring it and pretending it doesn't exist. 

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW AND MID LEVEL UNDULATION...BUT IN
VARIOUS DEGREES OF CURVATURE...WILL TRACK WEST AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...WITH A MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.

From Tropical Discussion:

"...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ABOUT 50 NM EAST OF FAJARDO PUERTO RICO 
MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ITS COMPLETE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 20N63W TO 
16N65W TO 11N65W. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN 
HIGH MULTI-LAYERED MOISTURE AS SHOWN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY. CONTINUOUS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REPORTED BY 
MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SO FAR. AN ENHANCEMENT OF INFRARRED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE EXTENDING FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 58W-67W. "

And.... Atlantic section... 

"ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW 
EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N43W TO 23N41W WITH NO 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING 
EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N31W SPREADS OVER 
THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 16N. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS KEEPING FAIR 
WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.  "

So my question is... IF it's going to PR and then Haiti and following the flow around the strong high pressure... Cuba... wouldn't that get somewhere it could do something down the line.. "possibly" would be my thought. And, you know me.. always thinking..

Besos Bobbi

Ps..Two more things to think on.. 1.. the tropical moisture in this wave is immense and will juice up the atmosphere just a bit and maybe weaken the high a bit.  2.. Oh darn.. I forgot two :)  Just got back from the chiropractor... a bit spacey but smiling and listening to Jimmy Buffett. Okay maybe remembered... it's all about patterns and trends in the tropics. Trends to watch are waves like this... Don't cha know... 

Favorite CD .. Barometer Soup

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyVBgxbyQpI