Caribbean Tropical Disturbance UP to 40% Deep Orange ..State of the Tropics Monday Morning

The area of disturbed tropical weather in the Caribbean is up to 40% odds and has an orange circle from the NHC at 8AM. That was an upgrade of 10% if you were not watching over the weekend, as it has been holding steady at 30% for the last 24 hours.

I'm highlighting the important part of the discussion to make it easier to understand.

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant. Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks GIS data:  .shp ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HONDURAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER ON TUESDAY OR THEREAFTER. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN

The point here is that no matter what happens regarding development Belize and the Yucatan Peninsular will get a lot of rain out of this and possibly stronger than expected winds. Very Squally for lack of a better word. A small center of circulation seems to be there and middle level circulation may be working it's way down to the surface.  Either way it's running out of time.

As many a meteorologist has said this morning it has a "small window of opportunity" and then the proverbial door slams shut and it is a "has been" unless it emerges over the Bay of Campeche and pulls itself together again. Yes, the GFS did predict something might be there, however once there it has failed to latch onto it.

It shows a weak system again in a few days and has problems holding on to it as it seems to slip through it's fingers. Again shear was supposed to be a factor inhibiting it and yet shear has loosened up. What has not loosened up is the grip by the strong high pressure ridge that extends well into the Caribbean which should keep anything that forms in that region West or at the most NW bound for now.  "For now" being the operative term here as we are moving into a period of change in the tropics over the next week to ten days.


Things can change... in the same way they shear factor changed to allow this to develop and reach out distant bands that look as if they will lash South Florida today. Hmnn...did I say "bands" ?? Yes, you'd think it has a better chance than 40% with banding going on...however it's not tightly wrapped and may still have multiple centers vying for dominance.

The Canadian model develops a storm in the Pacific.





The above image shows the chances for development.

It is worth noting that what might be developing in the Pacific comes from this current system in the Caribbean.  Seems a real year for crossover dancers in the tropics....



The 7 Day Loop from the NWS shows nothing special going on in the Gulf of Mexico.. it does show a front that will come down and dissipate over North Florida in a few days. This is a great loop to look at to compare and contrast what is predicted with what the models are indicating. Posting it here, it is found down on the bottom left-middle of the page at www.spaghettimodels.com.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Lastly, for a dream team sort of wish cast.. IF this system lifted NORTH into the very warm waters of the Caribbean ...something more might happen as the water there is warm... bordering on hot. Much hotter than where it is now close into the coastline in Central America.



Down south of the Cayman Islands it is HOT HOT HOT. If anything, it's currently sitting in s bit of a cool spot. The water in the Bahamas between Miami and Cuba is much warmer as well.  Just something to think on down the line in case something develops somewhere. The Loop Current is alive and well ..as well .. if some collapsed frontal boundary develops something off the West Coast of Florida...IF ...the high nudges eastward and releases it's grip on Florida and the Atlantic.

Keep watching. It is fun to watch and for now it is the only show in the tropics.

Well....there's a wave off of Africa, but to quote Carole King... it's so far away.

Besos Bobbi
Ps It IS worth noting that if the NHC sends RECON down there and decides to suddenly upgrade to a designated system it would say a lot about how they will handle the rest of the season.