Orange Circle in the Caribbean... up to 30% and trying to pull together...

ORANGE... The area in the Caribbean is ORANGE and the NHC seems to like it... to some degree... and so do I.  What it will do and where it will go... not sure, but I'll be back in a bit with more thoughts here on what could conceivably be Tropical Storm Barry if he continues to hang in there and kick up his heels and keep showing convection and rudimentary signs of a circulation developing. 

GIS data:  .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.  ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE DISTURBANCE
EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A DAY OR SO.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Texas or Mexico? Sending rain up into the middle of the country or headed to the Pacific the long way across Mexico?



Currently only 3 out of 10 chance of developing, but a lot of forecasters have been a fan of it before it even had a )% yellow circle.......

Time will tell... and I'll tell my thoughts a little later.



Stay tuned............it's getting a "look" on the Water Vapor... a sort of bubble forming, a pocket... so where's the shear they have insisted would kill it??



Besos Bobbi.... be back in a while...