Yellow Circle in Caribbean... NOT YET... watching the tropics on Fathers Day 2013!

This really should be called "check back tomorrow" but I am mentioning the Yellow Circle that IS worth mentioning but the models have been inconsistent. Some models show things forming in the Epac and if that happens ...it would put development on hold in the Caribbean and Gulf for several days. You never really know, but all the "haters" are pointing out the high shear and no semblance of circulation and all the things you say when you want to be negative on development. Then again it has consistency for it in that it has held together as an area of weak convection for a while now and models have been teasing us with development on every other run or so.

The 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook out of the NHC in MIAMI put out these official comments:

"ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE WAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN"

The Farmer's Almanac put a "threat" into the 2013 Almanac for the end of the this coming week. Something I know a lot of people here pay attention to:

"JUNE 2013:temperature 77° (2° below avg.); precipitation 5" (1" above avg.); Jun 1-7: Sunny, hot; Jun 8-13: T-storms, then sunny, cool north; t-storms, cool south;Jun 14-19: Hurricane threat; Jun 20-23: Sunny, warm;Jun 24-30: T-storms, then sunny, cool north; scattered t-storms south.


My thoughts here at that the diving Upper Level Low is stirring up convection but nothing is really happening. And, still.. I'm watching and so is everyone for the possible development of a system that would form after it moves into the Gulf (BOC maybe) and move up towards Texas. Still think that is not a straight shot or a sure thing as much as a distant possibility.

I'm also curious on the frontal boundary that is hanging off the East coast of Florida. No models play with it yet things somethings spin up there and am also as mentioned previously watching ever tropical wave that doesn't develop but moves west into the Caribbean as the trigger that could pull this puzzle together in a week or so. When I say a week or so I really mean about ten days give or take.

The last few frames here show some small "roll" beginning to take place in the "yellow circle area" which is interesting.



You can see on this WV loop how the ULL is moving down towards the Yucatan and playing with the convection where it flares up ..you can ALSO see how the front is moving down and out past the Bahamas showing the convection further to the East. At some point that front is going to stop pushing and whatever moisture gets left behind "might" possibly have a chance of hooking up with the top part of a westbound tropical wave.

ALL LONG SHOTS for now..




The wide view shows all the players.

1. Caribbean
2. Left over convection from Front East of FL ..North of PR
3. Waves west bound from Africa.


I'll update this as soon as the NHC makes any chances and or.... models show me something to make me think otherwise.


\
A special Happy Father's Day to all the father's out there and a special Happy Father's Day to my friend Mike who has this picture posted on his site..so I feel okay with sharing it. Here's to all your fathers who make a difference in the lives of their children... uncles and older brothers and grandfathers and family friends who also stand in and act as second fathers when kids need them.
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

You are all pretty darn amazing and you deserve more than one day, but we have only one on the calendar so ... Today is the day



Sweet Tropical Dreams..