Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Only Tropical Rumors - Wild Thunderstorn Raced Thru NC Yesterday..

This really does say it all. Anything and everything else I say is innuendo and rumor :)

With regard to rumor we can start with the MJO forecast, which shows the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico near the West Coast of Florida as a positive indicator of future tropical activity in the short term.

The wide satellite image shows more than really exists. That is NOT a tropical storm headed to Florida, but remnants of a tropical wave being momentarily enhanced by the strong diving ULL that is tickling it into tropical giggles ....but nothing more. A view of the WV loop shows this process better than one image.

What I will say about this set up is there is an adequate amount of moisture in the Caribbean right now and warm enough temperatures for something to happen if the pressures would drop and if the upper level lows would loosen their grip on the region.

That big ULL is actually a double dipper as it dips down and plays with the way just to the NE of PR and then it dips don again and plays with the wave down near South America.

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop

Everyone is watching the Southwest Caribbean for signs of a steady increase in moisture which could form into something later in the week to ten days time frame. That is where models have been trying to close off a tropical low with great difficulty. The models keep showing little barely formed circles unable to totally close off like loose key lime jello that won't hold together.

The CMC model AKA Canadian shows something small forming suddenly  at the 132 hour point on this mornings loop in the Gulf offshore of FL and going in and when I say "suddenly" I mean it's like now you don't see me and now you do. What's up with that?

Did I mention it was small and sudden? Often set ups like this DO favor close in development, but that's like something hovering over a fishing boat just off shore. I'd keep watching that model for any real consistency and shows dipping fronts down into the Gulf.

What is worth noting is that the high breathes and expands back and forth into the Gulf, trying to hold onto Florida like some colonial territory.

So, if you want to play Fantasy Forecasting you can look at that wave NE or PR and think WOW. Or pack it in and go fishing, play golf, take up a hobby cause the only thing we are chasing this week is severe weather.

Speaking of severe weather... went out for a drink last night with my guy to relax... unwind and try not to think on the tropics. Looked out the window and saw trees bending that are not supposed to bend. The sky was clear still, but something was definitely up so went outside and oh wow... no more like OH WOW!! And, no I did not drink THAT much.

Note the pale blue in the sky that was there out the window just moments earlier.. nice sunny day. Warm sunny day. Warm summery sunny day with lots of energy out there for combustion of the meteorological kind.

A few minutes later the sky turned even darker...

That is a real picture with a not so new android. It was one of the longest, widest lines I've seen when not being in the Keys. Rolling in LOW and ominous though the rain was not as bad as a Miami Monsoon in May.

You need to see the video to see the whole entire long and how low it was like something out of a horror movie, except that for me it was more like a romantic comedy :)   Not the end of the world, not the Moore tornado... just a wild line of thunderstorms brightening up my day and making me glad I stayed in NC for a little while longer. Shame to have missed that. Don't worry I do have an exit strategy here, just not the right time and no random cicadas are going to scare me away!   :)

Seriously is that wild or what? Great wall cloud with the smallest of funnels not going anywhere, not doing anything but just making wild weather at the end of a busy day!

Keep watching the tropics. If the models keep showing something forming off of the West Coast of Florida and going in around the Big Bend.. I'll believe it. But, they have been very tentative so far and hard to pin down.

Like Key Lime Jello

Besos Bobbi

Ps...Here's the recipe. Seems like a lot of work. My Jello Shots are waiting at Bayside :)

Or try the ones at Bayside in Miami :)


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