Tropics Monday Morning... Possibilities & Model Discussion & 19 Roses for 19 Dead Firefighters...

Going to show the state of the tropics today and explain how something tropical "might" try and develop later in the week if you believe the last run or two of the models. And, the models do show a possibility yet they are differ greatly on the end result.

First, note above that Florida and the Western Gulf of Mexico is inundated with rain and moisture. When you have that pattern persisting over several days the barometric pressures begin to lower and the influence of the High that had parked itself over the Atlantic and into the Gulf begins to fade away.

Note this morning there is a small purple dot in the middle of the Atlantic approximately where the models show a low forming and splitting the high pressure into two. Looking for more model runs to show this reliably before buying into it ...as much as I would like to buy into it.

Keep your eye on that dot.. I will come back to it soon.

The Shear map on Monday at 9AM shows an area where the shear has lessened and could give a purple dot a better chance of growing into a purple dot/tropical low.



The Canadian Model shows a Low forming just off shore or as we say "close in" to South Florida and has the low hovering over Miami on the last frame of the current run.

That scenario shown in the link to the model below, would in theory take the low across Florida and out into the Gulf of Mexico where it could strengthen over warmer water.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013070100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The GFS model shows a high that is wavering in strength. It moves a bit to the north, struggles to get south again, moves to the North and has some low pressure system trying to form in the middle of it. The Western edge of the high jerks back and forth. It's hard to see a high split like that (which was more pronounced on the last run) but rather than say "garbage in and garbage out" I'd rather say something is missing that has not show it's face quite yet to create this ongoing option.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013070106&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Another model known as the NAVGEM shows the fluctuating of the high as well as the ongoing attempt to try and close off a low. It does not show the Miami storm, but on the last run it shows the presence of a contender. What it does show that is important is the High is beginning to look like taffy being pulled, stretched and almost breaking up.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc2.cgi?time=2013070100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Note there is a similarity in the models with reference to the high, look at the high not the possible Florida storm.

There are other models that show a weak low in the Gulf of Mexico near Tex/Mex Land.



Note where ever you live you can look at a variation of a model or a satellite image and see a storm coming to your town.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=352575751536283&l=4e8aff9e7a

Mike's Weather Page has a good image up on Facebook showing the different possibilities.

https://www.facebook.com/TropicalUpdates

Models right now are sort of eeny meeny miney moe...

Now lastly, let's look at the images on the satellites of what IS not what might be.

I vaguely wonder aloud here if the huge ULL that looks like a Ghost Cane could work it's way down to the surface and maybe that is what the models are picking up on with regard to the high splitting??

Seen it happen before..........

The real color is in the Eastern Pacific... 

The big tropical plume of moisture that is zooming up from the tropics all the way up I95 is evident.

Remember..we have already had a storm travel up I95 this year, the possibilities are there for more storms

that travel up the Eastern Seaboard like many storms before them.

There is a tropical wave which wants to pull together near Florida (hmnnnn) but won't...

The big UPPER LEVEL LOW that has trapped some moisture inside it...hmmmnnn

The Water Vapor Loop shows yet another Cape Verde Wave setting sail across the Atlantic.

It also shows how active the Eastern Pacific is while the MJO is in residence.. moving slowly East.. 

Moral of the story is ... Keep Watching...

Change comes slow in the tropics in July.. bit by bit..

You need a strong high for the waves to get across the Atlantic..

not too strong of they move too fast and have a hard time twisting into a cyclone

It's a delicate balance between:

 just the right water temps

shear not being too high

a low pressure system at the surface vs "just rain"

and often it all boils down to climatatology. 

Last thing I want to say here is we are all saddened by the loss of 19 firefighters in the Arizona wildfires. 

Despite all the knowledge in the world and experience the weather inside and around a forest fire of this magnitude if quirky and develops rapidly and even the best can get caught in a sudden wind change or different dynamic that is happening in real time.  Many firefighters follow the weather and are active in many of the chat rooms and message boards online, understanding weather is part of understanding how a fire can grow quickly or change directions suddenly. 

I lived in LA a long time, I have a very healthy respect for the life changing dangers of forest fires as everywhere year one burns out of control in a canyon or on a mountain ridge devouring brush and homes and lives without any respect for the difference between chaparral or a hillside home or a person living in that hillside home. 

This is the worst firefighter tragedy since 911 when we lost so many brave souls battling the fires inside those burning buildings to try and rescue as many lives as they could and many lost their own lives in that battle. 

We owe them more than 19 roses on a fence outside their headquarters where their cars sit waiting for them to return... but they wont. And, wives and children and parents and puppies and grandparents all wish they would return home safe...but they won't.

A very sad tragedy growing even sadder by the day in Prescott Arizona. And... a gentle reminder that weather started that fire. And, weather made it harder to fight. And, weather changes on the line most likely were responsible for the loss of life.

Besos Bobbi