Tropics Monday Morning... Possibilities & Model Discussion & 19 Roses for 19 Dead Firefighters...
Going to show the state of the tropics today and explain how something tropical "might" try and develop later in the week if you believe the last run or two of the models. And, the models do show a possibility yet they are differ greatly on the end result.
First, note above that Florida and the Western Gulf of Mexico is inundated with rain and moisture. When you have that pattern persisting over several days the barometric pressures begin to lower and the influence of the High that had parked itself over the Atlantic and into the Gulf begins to fade away.
Note this morning there is a small purple dot in the middle of the Atlantic approximately where the models show a low forming and splitting the high pressure into two. Looking for more model runs to show this reliably before buying into it ...as much as I would like to buy into it.
The Shear map on Monday at 9AM shows an area where the shear has lessened and could give a purple dot a better chance of growing into a purple dot/tropical low.
The Canadian Model shows a Low forming just off shore or as we say "close in" to South Florida and has the low hovering over Miami on the last frame of the current run.
That scenario shown in the link to the model below, would in theory take the low across Florida and out into the Gulf of Mexico where it could strengthen over warmer water.
The GFS model shows a high that is wavering in strength. It moves a bit to the north, struggles to get south again, moves to the North and has some low pressure system trying to form in the middle of it. The Western edge of the high jerks back and forth. It's hard to see a high split like that (which was more pronounced on the last run) but rather than say "garbage in and garbage out" I'd rather say something is missing that has not show it's face quite yet to create this ongoing option.
Another model known as the NAVGEM shows the fluctuating of the high as well as the ongoing attempt to try and close off a low. It does not show the Miami storm, but on the last run it shows the presence of a contender. What it does show that is important is the High is beginning to look like taffy being pulled, stretched and almost breaking up.
Note there is a similarity in the models with reference to the high, look at the high not the possible Florida storm.
There are other models that show a weak low in the Gulf of Mexico near Tex/Mex Land.
Note where ever you live you can look at a variation of a model or a satellite image and see a storm coming to your town.
Mike's Weather Page has a good image up on Facebook showing the different possibilities.
Models right now are sort of eeny meeny miney moe...
Now lastly, let's look at the images on the satellites of what IS not what might be.