10% Yellow Yucatan Circle Up...

Short note tonight to post the news that the NHC has put up a 10% Yellow Circle around the tip of the Yucatan...in the Caribbean and expected to move up into the Gulf of Mexico.

I really want to wait until the next model runs to speculate too much. There was so much talk about a BOC system, yet the new model runs show a very weak system moving up into the Central Gulf.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013070218&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Another model shows a more defined system, again everything could change with the next model runs. Note this run was for an Invest in the Pacific...but it shows the Gulf of Mexico.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013070218-invest97e&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

You can read between the lines a bit here from the Tropical Weather Discussion put out at 8PM.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A DEEP AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING AN AXIS ACROSS 
CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE GULF IS SUPPORTING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT 
THAT ENTERS THE BASIN BY SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W TO 27N89W 
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO 24N93W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EXTENDS TO THE SW GULF FROM 21N-24N 
BETWEEN 93W-97W. ADVECTION OF LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS MOISTURE 
FROM THE WEST CARIBBEAN TO THE EASTERN GULF COMBINED WITH UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FLORIDA AS WELL AS S OF 26N 
EAST OF 83W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS S OF 23N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF REACHING 
UP TO 15 KT. 

HIGH MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE GULF WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS WELL AS A DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHICH 
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE 
WILL EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CUBA DRIFTS WESTWARD. BROAD 
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF AND A LOW MAY 
FORM IN THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CUBA AND UPPER 
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUBA AND FROM 17N-22N 
BETWEEN 78W-85W. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE 
TRANSITIONED TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE COASTLINES OF 
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE  
CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 130 NM N OF THE HONDURAS 
COASTLINE BETWEEN 82W-85W ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF 
THIS TROUGH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN 
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 80 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 79W-
81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST 
CARIBBEAN AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WEST ATLC IS 
ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LA HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. 
OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS UP TO 20 KT ABOUND ACROSS THE BASIN WITH 
THE MAXIMUM WINDS BEING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A 
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/030006_MIATWDAT.shtml?

Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm