60% Red Circle... "could form at any time"

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Important part of the discussion concerning the tropical disturbance that could become a Tropical Storm later today or tomorrow.  Note the wording "could form at any time" . . .

"ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE

FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME...WHICH WOULD
REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES."

Also...note there is another tropical wave that looks fantastic behind it leaving the Cape 

Verde Islands.

Up close and personal:

Wide wide world view:

Things going against it... shear and dry air.

Why that hasn't stopped it so far is more the question...

If the wave behind it develops the track usually is lower than the first lead storm. Usually..

Put it in motion:

A good link to keep and watch when storms are in this part of the Atlantic:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL952013&starting_image=2013AL95_4KMIRIMG_201307071245.GIF

What worries me is not that the system might remain weak...what worries me is that it might 

remain weak and the weaker it stays the further west it gets. As they get stronger than gain latitude.

If it goes so far into the Easten Caribbean...then it could lay low and regenerate south of Cuba and 

become a stronger contender for tropical trouble. 

Still too early to see what will be and it is not yet Chantal, but it's as close as it gets. I think 60% is too low a 

status, I'd say it's closer to 70 or 80%

A good model page to look at is Michael Watkins Hurricane Analytics. 

Personally if it misses Florida I'm still thinking Ocean Isle Beach or whatever beaches are on the coast of North  

Carolina facing south... depends on how strong the diving "trough" is scheduled to arrive on the East Coast

later this week and if it plows through or retrogrades back a bit and how strong our yet unnamed system is and

where and when...

Besos Bobbi

Ps...Will update as information is upgraded....