95L in the Atlantic. Is Tropical Storm Chantal Forming? Is She a Florida Storm??

Note that some of the models seem to lose this storm in the Caribbean and the Atlantic. It could hit a wall of shear that might make that scenario happen, or more likely give it a problem developing further. It's really too early to tell.

What the tropics look like now vs model predictions :)



Fast mover...


There are so many factors to consider and as I said on Friday this is a BEAUTIFUL Wave. When I said "beautiful" I meant it had signs of some organization (low pressure at some level) and potential despite the timing of this wave being there in Early July not Late July.

Let's look at the wave itself or as it is also known 95L meaning it's an INVEST officially not "just a wave"

Note the same shape it had when it came off the coast. Note the S shape.



The long curling tail that existed when I first spoke about it ...

95L is the lead wave half way across the ocean... note there is a wave behind it which is worth noting.

95L is moving at a fast clip, which is mostly due to the strength of the high to it's north.

It has some running room and then hits a wall of shear. Note shear is fluid and changes in real time.

Amazing loop to watch on the Floater of this system rolling along WITH the dust to it's north...

Staying low keeps her going...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-avn-long.html

Note how DRY the air is to the North of the system which many feel could become Chantal.

Storm Pulse shows the different models...which seem different on every one's site.

They all seem to lead with the model that affects their viewers the most... 

Models are still spaghetti like and it's still too early to know for sure what will happen

Needs a verifiable "center" before the models are worth etching in stone.

Another...

Note the models do not differ until it gets further west...

Posting this again in a different format... I want to see if it updates and... Ocean Isle Beach area in NC

has been having extreme problems with high rip tides... the flow has been slamming into the beach there..

Just makes me wonder IF it pulls north after flirting with Florida

then again another model takes it close to the West coast of FL

CMC aka Canadian shows it doing that..it is not a very accurate model...keep that in mind...

Bottom line tonight is I'm tired.. honestly... 

a friend past away yesterday late in the day ...not a best friend

a friend up here who has been ill and fighting ovarian cancer

she lost that battle..

Watching news on the San Fran air crash and well...weather was not a factor there

...and yest still... two people confirmed dead. 

Been a long time since I landed at SFO...back when I flew in from LAX

...been a long time since I flew into LAX

Bottom line is...

IF this is Chantal...she is going to have to be one big fighter for this to play out.

It's early in the season...

She's moving fast and that is helping her in odd ways.

She is battling dust...SAL to her north where the ocean is blanketed with it or rather

the atmosphere is blanketed and chokes off her immediate chances

There is shear down the road...

Truth is if SHE stays low and stays weak she is much more of a contender for later

So...do not listen to those naysayers on line who talk on how difficult the track is...

IF she were to develop fast and get strong she would be more likely to pull north

If she stays fast she gets less dust entrained in her ...yet she can't move too fast either.

If she stays low and keeps going the way she is then we may have her sex right

and she may be the next named system CHANTAL in the next few days..

Soon she will be close enough for them to send planes in and see if her mid level 

Watch this loop...what you are watching is where the high is...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Early on the high is wide... later on in the period the High goes East and 

leaves a doorway for a possible Chantal to move North around Florida

up the East coast... scraping the East Coast cities

up the West coast..or 

maybe through the Keys into the Gulf of Mexico..

A lot of IFS

juice loop...

Morphed composite shows our Invest looks like a player on the last few images.

I'll be back tomorrow morning with more discussion based on the overnight models and also based on what the Invest looks like on the first visible. Nice to have the floater going as well as the Navy site watching her.

This is exactly what the forecasters have been warning...a busy season with long tracking storms getting int our part of the world and I STRONGLY SUGGEST you work stocking up on hurricane supplies and re-evaluating your hurricane plans if you live anywhere along the Hurricane Coastline.

I mean it... BBQ is over, the fireworks have been shot off and you already have a sun burn from the beach..

Go to Publix and start stocking up on things you may need in case a hurricane comes to visit... this is the first of a long line of possible threats... use your time wisely. Time as they say is money.


Sweet Tropical Dreams

http://www.publix.com/storm/