Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

UPDATED THURSDAY!! Tropical Waves Coming Off Africa... Flooding Summer Rain Closer to Home. Could Anything Develop? Officially NHC Says No But Lot's to Watch.

Quick late night update.......
Long link but go for it.

Remember those late night radio shows?
They'd talk on alien abductions and conspiracies?
My aunt used to listen to them after her husband died young.
Late night talk hosts talking on numerous things.
Kept her company alone in her empty room.
Sometimes it was politics.....
.......she'd turn off the alien abductions ;)

But seriously......
I sure hope the NHC doesn't have subtropical on their brain.

Oh wait is that an Alien?
Saturn like storm possibilities.
What could be out there.
Check that loop out.

Odd......more oddness.
For now everything is feeding into it.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Far to the right.....
See below.

Hoping this slides away and Barry is a real tropical storm.
Just my thoughts.
Keep reading.
Felt it was worth pointing out ....

As for the African Tropical Waves.......
.........they are becoming South America Waves Crashing on shore.
Making it across the Atlantic... low but low as they go they go.

Thursday Morning Update.
Strong African Tropical Waves Westbound still.....
South of the High.
Beneath the SAL
Moving towards South America and the Caribbean.

An updated version of the picture below.
Check out those waves they are making it across the pond.

Please read the blog below
And know......
Now is the time to prepare for Hurricane Season.

Publix has a lot of good buy one get one free specials today.
Juices. Baby Wipes. 
Things you will need during hurricane season.
With strong waves such as these above...
...and stalled out fronts near North Florida....
You should be shopping now!
Making lists.
What do you need to do if a hurricane comes your way?
Or pops up off shore from a dead cold front?

I'll update later today about record heat and rain...
...and why this should concern you.

ciao for now...
be back later.
Please read if you have not done so already.

Today's post is regarding waves over Africa.
And much action close in that I'll discuss later.
There has been much discussion on early African Waves.
You can see our latest pair coming off today.

There is African Dust known as SAL to the North.
A huge high more discernible on Water Vapor Imagery.

What you also see in the above image is the shear from the Caribbean...
East bound towards the Atlantic.

So if there is shear and there's SAL why are we watching the wave?
Honestly it's a kick ass wave for any time of year.
And though it's too soon in June this June has felt more like Mid July.
It's not totally impossible for a wave to find a way to stay together.
It happens.
It happens rarely.

I was asked online if it's a a "frightening glimpse of things September has in store?" from a good writer and a long time online friend. I'd agree except that this June has been like July in many ways so I'd say it's a glimpse of what August may bring. Yes, we do exaggerate early waves (his words) but my response is two fold. 

There is always some wrench that crops up in the tropics regarding what seems to be perfect, positive conditions for tropical development. This time of year we have shear coming out of the entrance to the Caribbean that blows apart kick ass waves. We have a strong high that sometimes propels them too fast yet this year they have made it across the Atlantic and washed up onto the shores of South America still noticeably held together enough to have been able to track a wave's progress the whole trip from Africa. This is something we do and something we enjoy tremendously this time of year and when you get bonus waves so well formed and nicely spaced apart it's more enjoyable. Especially enjoyable knowing nothing is going to slam into the Islands protected by the Shear Zone and the water is not warm enough to support real formation so it's just a fun thing to do and on some level yes it shows how patterns are developing.  The reason nicely spaced waves is important is that some years they come off too close together and rob each other of moisture competing for supremacy and they all equally lose and have problems developing. The well spaced waves are more prone to each have their own zone, their pocket to develop in if the other conditions are favorable. And, how they look early in the season is usually how they look and come off in another month down the road closer to East Atlantic development as they roll off of Africa over a beach in Senegal with a low pressure system attached. Again that is what it means to watch the patterns.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

So we are wave watching. What I am also watching is the consistent, persistent congregation of moisture off the SE coast on both sides of Florida and close to Georgia as fronts keep on coming and then falling apart into a stationary front and linger too long with nothing to push them out to sea totally. The water off the Florida peninsular is warm and along areas of the Georgia and Carolina coasts it's warming up fast. Sometimes things "pop up" as I wrote in my previous blog.

Note that blob of rain that moved from GA to SC.
And now is off shore.
Every day Miami is getting slammed with storms.
And check out the mess that came off of Texas.

These are your usual regions to watch in mid June.
I'm watching.
But right now they are all just clouds.
Clouds and convection.
Blasts of shear shooting across the ocean.
Moisture in motion.

Note yesterday.........

Massive rain training over the same area.
...then it moved up over South Carolina.
Part of it is off the coast.
Part is moving towards North Carolina.
It's a messy time of year.
Hopefully just rain and summer storms.
But sometimes tropical storms can form....
... from waves that make it past the dust...
...when shear relaxes on any given day...
Not expecting much but it's a good loop to use
If you want to watch tropical waves.

Just don't expect anything to develop.
Yet always leave the door for more.

GOES16-TAW-07-900x540.gif (900×540)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Let's hope we just see summer rain.
But not so much rain that it floods.
All summer long we watch waves.
Some years the calendar doesn't connect to reality.
Put "summer rain" into a YouTube search and...
...came up with this one.
So going with it.

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