Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

The Trouble With Models That Don't Always Work... Post Game Analysis Father's Day. Why You Should Prepare For Hurricane Season. Alberto to Michael. Julia to Matthew. Patterns Repeat. Heavy, heavy storms over Florida.. no name but rain is the game now... what about later in the season? Oh Erin Brockovitch For Fun

There is nothing happening officially in the tropics.
There is a huge High Pressure system.
You can see it wearing stylish black below.

Yes the high is hogging the whole Atlantic Ocean.
Double barreled HH on the map above.
Note there has been persistent convection near South Florida.
At some point it will get pulled North.
Lost it's chance to be an Invest.
But Miami people will remember the rain and flooded streets.
What's important to remember is that the water is also warming up.
Note the big red Bermuda like Triangle over Miami and the Bahamas.. 
Yeah that's happening.
So enjoy your quiet time and use it wisely.
As in doing Hurricane Preparation.

Father's Day Weekend 2019.

I finally got to see the inside of my husband's barbershop ;)

We went to the Mall.... I shopped while he shopped.

Victoria Secret's 

So as I am reminding you there is nothing tropical going on.
But what I am going long on today is life.
Why the models don't always know what's going on...
..and how and why patterns persist and repeat.

Two recent years show us that a pattern persists.
But you got to read along or just look at the pictures... get to that point as today I'm writing.
I'm blogging.
I'm hiding from the heat in Raleigh.
Waiting for rain and planning dinner.
I'm under a friend's orders to "rest" so complying.
Prepare for long rambling sentences.
Movie mentions and too much information.
It's hot, grab some Sweet Tea and sit a spell!
Spike it if you want I won't tell..........

Remember a blog is basically an online diary.
Especially on a day like today.
This was a therapeutic experience.
Not editing or spell checking neither...
In a mood but a good one!

Father's Day Weekend is alas over. I hope everyone had a really wonderful day whether it was laid back or full of adventure and most importantly I hope the weather cooperated! In Raleigh the weather was "oh my gosh gorgeous" with blue skies, a nice breeze and the weather didn't heat up until late in the day when we ate frozen yogurt outside after pizza by a big cement pond. My husband who wears many father hats had a good day despite not being near any of the kids but he got some of the things he needed but had been putting off buying until a good sale so thank you Belk! He had donuts for breakfast, a haircut at his fancy haircutting place and Greek Salad for lunch and pizza for dinner. This was basically an almost perfect day food wise for him though I'm sure he'd have enjoyed being with the kids. We do travel often and he saw them recently and hopefully down the road there will be another kid adventure soon! Meanwhile he has a haircut, a new suit and he's usually happy when everyone else is happy so he said he had a good day.  I'm making BBQ chicken for dinner with mashed potatoes and corn because it's my happy meal and we all need to be happy!

I will say though I missed my father a lot and because of that Father's Day weighed heavier on me than it used to back when he was jumped on by my brothers and I gave him whatever gift I thought would make him happy. He like my husband has kind of easy needs in that he was a low key person when it came to happiness... again if everyone was happy he was happy (okay mostly my mother in his case....) but let's leave Father's Day at that. Actually going to post an old crappy picture of my father with my cousin Brian and I down in the Keys on a cold windy day; it's a copy of a copy in crappy condition and he used the word "crap" often so that kind of fits. It's an old picture obviously but a nice memory as he had a job down in the Keys and he took us with him for a private alone time trip sometime after my Uncle died while he was trying his best to reach out to my cousin (and partner in crime often) Brian. My cousin was my best friend growing up living next door and always up to who knows what but on that day we made my father happy and let him take us out down to the Keys. Note the jacket and sweater and my favorite pair of jeans.

Note this blog this morning is free form, flow of thought as today is not exactly a #breakingnews day in the Tropics. The tropics are so slow that even the Epac refuses to cooperate and spin something up. There's an Invest in the West Pacific which is too far away for me and most people reading this to care. In truth if the Eastern Pacific erupted into a mere Invest I'd get all excited and follow it. Okay not really... I'd be excited to see an Invest and follow it but I wouldn't exactly do a happy dance ya know. Traditionally I remind y'all that when the Epac spits something out like an odd shaped water melon seed and it mozies on off into the Pacific you can count ten days until something begins to bubble up in our basin. Sometimes the Atlantic fires up first as it did with andrea that I refused to capitalize because quite honestly it didn't stick around long enough to get a capital A.  If Andrea was given a grade by a cranky teacher she'd probably get a D minus because I don't think F plus is a thing even today. But we are moving on to Barry and I'm hoping he's a long distance runner like Barry Sanders! My father was a Detroit Fan but that's it with Daddy for the day I promise.

So what can I tell you about the tropics today?
It's raining as if a tropical storm is forming over Miami.
it's not but it's hot and feels that way.
The last few days have been a nonstop rain fest.
Street flooding. Messy highways.
Not a lot of sun.

Only fun for storm chasers.
Or photographers in search of stormy pictures.
Phil from Channel 7 has tried his best to stay on top of it.
It's been nonstop.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

If you look carefully you can see this area has a bit of spin.
Not a lot of spin but more than we've seen in a while.
In the old days we'd talk on this and have fun.
The models on some level have stolen all the fun.
Not the models but the NHC in a way.
If an area is not favored by 2 models they refuse to play.
Then they name Tropical Storm Julia over land the next day...
...with lot's of explanations that no one understands.

In 2016 we had to go Southbound to see the kids.
Some child decided to get married in Mid September
I chose the timing of the trip to intercept tropical weather.
Nailed it and spent the night in Ormond Beach.
The ocean front room was flooded.
It was messy.
The NHC dismissed the system until they didn't.

This happened again in 2018.
Last year if you remember.
Lots of hoopla, then they played it down.
It seemed as if they were going to pull the plug.
High expectations for upper Gulf of Mexico but not Miami.
Miami had so much rain.
Tons of rain.
Flooding rain videos ... 
They suddenly named Tropical Storm Gordon.
As it was approaching the Keys for landfall.
After it had dumped days of rain on Miami.

The models were iffy.
I'm bitching on models today if you haven't noticed.
Not Victoria's Secrets models.

But models that act like self driving weather forecasters.

The problem here was that the models showed it wouldn't develop...
...until deeper into the Gulf of Mexico.
So basically Miami was told we would just get some rain.
Some rain indeed.
I'll allude to Mike's tweet for Father's Day.

The situation escalated fast after that.
Okay it was Labor Day Weekend.
No one likes to scare the tourists ya know...

After all was said and done.
It was obvious Miami got more rain than landfall up the way.

Note the models were wrong far out.
Good luck on that 7 day cone.
They kept moving East with Gordon.
Models never deal well with small systems.
Underestimated systems based on low model support.
That's an ongoing issue these days.

Another thing I want to say is this.
We watch early storms and swirls because........
.......several weeks or months later the pattern repeats.
Except the things are riper for serious development.
Follow me here... if you are still reading along.

That's Alberto in 2018
Again remember Gordon crossed these same waters.
Moving a different direction but the spot was hot!
Below is Michael in 2018.

Hurricane Michael's track shown above.
Notice the obvious?
Same basic pattern as Alberto.
Early season.... 
Academics love pointing out patterns change.
Later in the season.
Second verse same as the first as Peter sang ;)
(smiling, sorry... great memory)

After the first few storms of the 2016 hurricane season...
..were written off by academics as anomalies.
Julia tried to form and make a run up the Florida coast.
She was actually named while we were in a truck stop in Jax.
Great place to be as we were right there when it happened.
We were pretty much the only ones out on the road also...
Remember it was a wave we tracked but did not develop til land.
So the track above shows the officially beginning of Julia.
More on Julia later......different Julia.
Second verse same as the first ;)
(sorry, Peter Noone long story)

J - K - L - M
Moving down the alphabetical line.
And a little bit further down in time.
But the same year of Julia.

Hurricane Matthew finally left South America...
and took off for the Florida East Coast.
Traveled up through the Caribbean 
And then basically did what Julia could not do.
Left a lasing impression for a M storm in 2016
Especially hard hit Jacksonville that rarely gets a hurricane.

Patterns exist.

Areas impacted earlier in the season always need to remember.
A pattern often repeats and it's like a fore shock.
Think of Alberto and Gordon as little fore shocks
Leslie impacting Jacksonville before Matthew did more damage.
You know those little earthquakes that sometimes predict larger ones.
Before the earthquake sometimes the earth tremors.
Always afterwards the earth keeps on rocking.
Hard to predict earthquakes.
But oh my goodness you can predict Hurricane formation a lot easier.
So why are you not preparing now while you have the time?

There's a guy online named Dutchsinse. He's a controversial figure who people love or people love to hate or people who love him hate those who don't love him and he has quite the fan group. A woman I know asked me why he doesn't run for President. I'm pretty sure many in official government jobs wish he would disappear and take up mountain climbing or something. But when things are boring and slow and there's no where to go I'll watch his videos and get lost in geography, maps, names of places far away and discussions on fault lines I studied in geology a long time ago. God I love maps. To quote Julia Roberts in the movie Erin Brockovitch "I'm a map slut" and that's true. Never really saw a map I didn't stop to look at...  But back to controversial but fun to listen to Dutch.... one thing he does often that is truly incredible is he explains to people how they should prepare for an Earthquake if they live in Earthquake Country. And the problem with living in earthquake prone areas is much like hurricane coasts places like LA and other coastal cities in California are prone to people moving in for a season, getting a job or chasing a dream of being a big movie star or the next Victoria's Secret's model and if they are lucky like some that's good but most do not and when the big one comes most people are as unprepared for an earthquake as they are for where they will go next when they can't afford the rent and their career doesn't take off as well as Madonnas did. A billboard will make you famous but you won't win no Oscar unless you build a career. But people remember Angelyne always.

There's a sub theme here if you haven't figured it out.

So Dutch tells people often to keep a knapsack filled with emergency items appropriate for the season as what you might need in Alaska in an earthquake in January may be different from what you might need in July; Dutch is detailed oriented if nothing else. The devil is always in the detail. And the truth is his list is pretty much solid gold for hurricane supplies except that in the case of earthquakes or Tropical Storm Gordon or Julia you might need to evacuate fast. Being serious... love him or hate him his nonstop discussion on how to prepare for the Big One is golden and the Big One will happen in LA or San Francisco or near the New Madrid Fault eventually as those faults have been active for centuries way before the United States ever existed. If you live in a place known to have had large earthquakes do not hang hanging shelves or you may lose your collection of minnie bobbleheads if ya know what I mean. Do you know how to secure kitchen cabinets that hole your Old Country Roses China? If not you may want to listen to the tail end of one Dutch's long videos after an earthquake in New Zealand. Oh unless you believe the New Madrid Fault was some curse from an Indian Chief... if you believe in science and I do I'm betting it will snap at some point and people will sadly not be prepared so again this post is about preparation! Hurricane Prep... Earthquake Prep. Oh by the way there was just a big one in Japan an hour ago. Earthquakes happen. 

Sometimes people call other people crazy.
Time shows they were not so crazy.
Erin Brockovitch is a great movie.
Funny.... smart... based on a real story.
Staring yeah you know.. Julia Roberts.
I told you there would be more Julia discussion didn't I?

I've always understood that movie.
I was a single mother.
Took the kids with me storm chasing sometimes.

Know what to say to get a man's attention ;)

Spoiler alert.... his office had maps.
She told him she was a map slut ... or something like that.
See the maps ...

Hey a girl's got to do what a girl's got to do.
You got to do what you got to do.
If you are reading this from Florida....
...or along GOM or East Coast.
Prepare for Hurricane Season.
I know it's not a sexy subject ...
...but it's a life or death subject!
Choose wisely.

Again....... let's go back to the basics.
Alberto in 2018.
An early late May storm.
Academics reminded us early formation doesn't mean...
..a busy season.
Yeah, academically speaking that's true.
In the same way academics said 2019 might be a mild season.
Learn from academics always.
But never take academic trivia as a rule.
It's just academic after all.
Pay attention to Mike on
Or Phil if you live in Miami.
Keep reading my blog.
It's not usually a writing exercise.
I'm tropically bored.
But I will check out that earthquake soon.
This basically is Mike's fault.
No good Mike Facebook Live Broadcasts :(

Anyway today.... 
Miami and SE Florida is getting a break.
Naples and Tampa is about to get slammed.
Later in the day Miami will get messy again.

Great radar link to save!

Weather will happen later today in the shaded areas.

I'm hoping to get some.

Bottom Line here......
Please, please, please prepare for hurricane season.
I cannot say this enough.

Quiet means the oceans are heating up.
The high is putting down an anchor.
Waves are rolling off of Africa too high for June.
And I just heard a Cicada and I'm not happy about it.
It's way too early in Raleigh to hear a Cicada in June.
This year is running ahead of schedule.
It's more Mid July than Mid June.
Waves will be viable soon enough.
Don't say I didn't warn ya...

Check out that wave.
Not a strong wave but way too high.
Viable waves begin when they are here...
...where this wave is located.
Not the bottom part that's flaring up.
The top part.

North of the bright convection.... there's a high latitude wave.
Yes there is shear in the upper left corner.
In a month or so that shear will be gone.
And waves will be spinning Westbound.
It takes time.
Use the time wisely.
Start stocking up!

I'll put the maps in motion.
For extra credit...
Chris played where Florence made landfall...


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Angelyne was the Queen of the scene in LA when I lived there once upon the time. And when I lived there far from hurricane country I read everything I could on local geology, earthquake faults and old California history. As long time lovers of my blog know... I loved LA! So if you live there prepare for the reality an Earthquake could rock your world way more than a little tar from the La Brea Tarbits bubbling up onto the boulevard messing up your morning commute...  IF YOU LIVE IN HURRICANE COUNTRY.... prepare this year as if you think your city will be the point of Landfall of a Major Hurricane and if you ares  impacted already by a wannabe invest or an early tropical storm take special notice as when a pattern is hot it's hot and oh by the way it's HOT in South Florida with a strong High out there and hurricanes are forecast this year to form close to land...this may be mean you. Follow on Twitter and enjoy the music from the real West Coast.

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