Tropical Storm Julia forms over Florida coastline.
Easy to say it's over land but what is feeding it...
..is the mass of it over the warm waters of the Gulfstream.
2016 the year of tropical waves from Africa...
...that form as they cross onto land in Florida.
I think Mark put that well.
So going with that comment.
Then again Hermine limped across the Atlantic..
..Caribbean, Cuba, GOM and found her name near landfall.
I drove through Julia a little while ago as it moved into the Jax area.
Actually the weather in Georgia North of #93 was crazy.
From that point on it was all tropical weather.
A very strong band of rain, total white out for a bit.
Then passed through it until another wave like band hit again.
Jax was crazier.
You could feel the wind on the tall bridge.
Sheets of rain were flying by ... as in a tropical system.
Way more than what you expect from a tropical wave.
Bands... gusts and very few cars on the road.
Nice to be able to do some storm chasing on the way to a wedding.
Better storm chasing Julia on the WAY to the wedding...
...rather than have Julia show up AT the wedding.
So we have moved from zones to cones.
Staying in Ormond Beach tonight.
The reality of this is... that tropical weather can be sometimes unpredictable even when you are a forecaster at the NHC. Models show multiple resolutions to tropical questions and generally they make the right call. Sometimes they underestimate a system (like this one) as it's close in to land and looks like it has run out of room. Yesterday it was a dot, a red dot in the Bahamas and in the morning it looked like a contender. Last night at 8 PM I posted this picture on the blog. It bugged me in that 99L did that multiple times and survived. It looked great, then it looked like someone pulled the plug and only one red dot remained and then it gained back convection again.
Tonight that dot now is Tropical Storm Julia
Not only did it grow in size but it moved fast.
And it didn't move across the State as many models predicted.
As it ran up the coast moving in tandem with the angle of Florida.
The convection sitting in the little curve between Florida and Georgia.
If Florida wasn't angled that way ... maybe this would not have made it.
But it took advantage of the lay of the land and kept convection over water.
The NHC may not have been happy about doing the upgrade.
They have parameters. Technically it's over land.
But the convection with Tropical Storm force winds are over water.
And there was mild flooding along the coast today as well as damages.
It is what it is and glad the NHC upgraded.
Showing this for two reasons.
You can see the "center" is officially over land.
..you can also oddly see center of what was 92L
Still coherent there on this site.
So I'll update tomorrow morning with a lot more information.
Want to take a shower ...
Go sit outside on the balcony and stare at the water.
95L is out there near Africa coming westward.
Much to talk about tomorrow.
If you live in the path of weather from Julia..
..there is some strong weather there.
And rain totals in some areas could be 10 inches.
That's a lot of rain and in low country it can cause flooding.
I heard TWC is set up in Georgia tomorrow.
Part of me wanted to go to St. Marys or Tybee Island.
But I gotta be in Miami for my son's wedding.
So seeing Julia up close and personal today was a bonus.
Icing on the cake.
Will blog with more info tomorrow.
Sweet Tropical Dreams
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... K storm next. Go figure.
You know when you pass through a Tropical Storm.
It suddenly ends. A shower here or there.
But suddenly it's gone.. poof.
This one wave came all the way from Africa...
And waited til it got to Florida to become a Tropical Storm.
Amazing. Tropical meteorology is so amazing.