Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

May 15th Start of the EPAC Hurricane Season - 2 Weeks til Atlantic Hurricane Season. Signs of Chance Down the Road

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First off this is our world above.
A continuous flow from the Pacific to the Atlatnic.
Heavy precipitation over Florida.
Early start to the Monsoon Season in South Florida.
A last minute reprieve of cool weather before summer starts.

It's 63 degrees in Raleigh as I type this but it will be 91 on Saturday.
These late Spring intrusions of cool weather are nice.
They do bring the threat of severe weather.

The five day expectations are rather high in two areas.

A huge two fold threat across the plains.
Severe weather.
Flooding could be a secondary problem.
River flooding depends on the location of the actual rain.
But potential for wild weather has every chaser in the plains.
And look at Florida.
One part of the moisture pulls North.
Another part heads East.

Below the graphics show the EPAC concerns... well as a good bird's eye view of possibilities.

There is a small purple swatch in the EPAC.
As I have mentioned previous there is moisture congregating.
Moisture hanging out and lingering is the first sign.
That goes for the Pacific and the Atlantic.
Storms fly off of South America and linger in the EPAC.
That process is the same as us watching Africa for storms.
Note the green color in the second middle graphic.
Rain expected... heightened potential.
Note the bottom middle pattern.
Tropical intensity index bright red.
Note some orange is creeping into the Caribbean.

I suppose we can call this Tropical Hollywood Squares :)

The truth is I love Mike's mind the way I love Anastasia eye shadow palettes in that they are put together perfectly to draw you in and make you want more. Mike, who plays at being silly and is silly, is brilliant and displays his graphics in such a way as to help you see the larger picture. They are positioned in a way to help you understand the various factors in the type of weather you are trying to find. Understanding Tropical Meteorology is a whole different layer of meteorology than asking if it will snow this week or when the drought might end. Tropical meteorology and forecasting is complicated as there are so many factors that are added it's like trying to taste one flavor while eating the Kitchen Sink Ice Cream Bowl at a late night trip to your favorite ice cream parlor. And when I say Ice Cream Parlor I mean the real thing not Menchie's which is fun but not a real Ice Cream Parlor! For those who drink it's like trying to taste the gin in a Long Island Ice Tea!

Factors are many and how they interact is complicated.
Shear forecasts.
Warm Water Temperatures.
Saharan Dust Forecasts.
El Nino
The list goes on and on.
There's a simple list and a complicated one.
Pick your favorite flavor.
Yet one factor adds to or detracts from the sum total.

The sum total is this today.
Epac season has started.
The names for the Eastern PACIFIC are below.

We will not be seeing Flossie or Zelda in the Atlantic.
We will be seeing Fernand and Gabrielle.
Will we see Melissa in the Atlantic? Maybe. 

This is the time of year that SAL flows....
And tornado chasers chase.

And warm water around Florida ups the ante for problems.

Convection in the Bahamas.
Or odd systems forming Mid Atlantic going Subtropical.
This is what we look for the in the Atlantic this time of year.
And usually the Epac gets a storm first.
No two years are exactly alike.
So stay tuned and make sure you got what you need.

Do what you got to do as my Daddy used to say.
Be prepared.

I had a gift certificate I've been holding on to..
Bought my summer palette :)

So I'm ready make up wise.
(It's not like Sephora sells water or batteries...)

Stay tuned.
After the cool weather finally departs.
And the waters warm up... 

There will be real trouble out there.
Prepare now.
Knowledge is power.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram for real time updates.

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