Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, September 28, 2018

UPDATED! Tropics .... Kirk Exits Stage Left, Subtropical Leslie Got Her Name Back. Rosa Off Broadway Coming to a Desert in the SW USA Soon. Where Does Her Moisture Go? Tsunami in Indonesia, Hurricane in Mediterranean? Earthquake in Caribbean on Island Dealing With Kirk.

The long awaited for Subtropical Storm Leslie is back.

Updating the blog for the upgraded status of  Subtropical Storm Leslie at 5 PM. You can see how it began to really fill in and convection wrap around the center in images I posted on Twitter while talking to friends about her and her potential drama. You can read the discussion on the logic of the NHC but the image below tells the tale.

Convection totally wrapped around the center.

Currently Bermuda might watch Leslie carefully.

We will talk on Leslie more down the road.
I think it's very possible she becomes a hurricane...
...later after transitioning to a tropical system.

As for Kirk....
...he's on borrowed time.

Some interesting news from the Caribbean.
The same island dealing with Kirk...
...just had a fairly strong earthquake.

As Jim reminded me.
He has a link on webpage with news from affected islands.

Duly noted and sharing that information.
I was on the phone with one of my kids.
I do have a life besides weather you know....
Another interesting story comes from the Mediterranean.

Crazy surf.
Look how neatly that fits in the Mediterranean.

How impressive is that?

Further away but just as interesting.
There was a Tsunami in Indonesia...
.... after a strong Earthquake.
Mike posted this on his webpage.

Video found online. 

Been passed around on Twitter all day.

Seems there's a lot going on.
Tropics are active geologically and meteorologically. 

Stay tuned....
Should get more interesting over the next week.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

* * *

Tropical Games.
Late September of 2018.

Cooler water temperatures initially.
Strong, long lived Saharan Dust.
MDR shut down for huge Canes.

So what happens?
Mother Nature turns things around.
Shakes things up.
Plays by her rules.
Tropical energy goes elsewhere.
Tropical energy finds a way.

Watch that loop.
What was Leslie and will be again... encapsulated by SAL.
Florence was as well.
And yet Florence found a way.
She took the far North path ....
...she went where few have ever gone.

If you loop that loop.
You will see the way shear...
..cleared out the Caribbean.
SAL not getting in there.
Neither have been hurricanes.

But they may form somewhere there soon.
The long term models show lowered pressures.
The pattern as we move into October hints at it.

Good Tweet from a good friend.

It's not locked in.
But most likely something will develop.
October and November...
Are about the Caribbean and GOM.

Often storms that fall apart....
...come back to life or more so..
Their moisture goes elsewhere.
Weather is about flow.

Look at the flow between Kirk & X Leslie.
You wonder where Leslie is getting that moisture?
In a sea of SAL?

Look at that long leash.
And Leslie is whipping the leash.
Slowly a center is filling in.

Long tentacles of moisture being sucked up...
Into the huge vortex that was Leslie.
That is being tracked by the ....
High Seas Forecasts.

Please refer to the NWS.
The new methodology of the NHC... an extension of the NWS it seems.
That's my thought.
The culture there seems to have changed.
More people from the NWS move into place.
It's their way of doing things.
It's their call.

Jokingly I told a friend...
..they won't name Leslie...
..until they kill off Kirk :)

We joke a lot in meteorology.
We compare things to football....
...or movies or science fiction shows.

So where do we stand now regarding Kirk?

Still there moving WNW now.
Movement has been erratic for last day or so.
Generally West into the Caribbean.

Cone shown below.

Models show:

Truth is Kirk will battle shear as he tries to move Westward. He will fall apart, his movement will slow down and his convection will be displaced. The problem with Kirk really is that his convection is constantly being displaced and that convection will cause flooding over a longer period of time for some of the islands. A fast moving, small well wrapped storm would have whipped it's moisture with it deep into the Caribbean... but that is not happening. So there has been some minor flooding that could become worse in the Islands. That IS Kirk. That IS WEATHER and that is what this is all about. It's not all about finding the one wave that will become a Killer Category 5 Storm remembered for all time, though that does happen, it's about weather and in this case tropical weather. So all jokes aside and I do love the jokes... Kirk is causing trouble in the Caribbean Islands now. XLeslie is slowly building back to being Leslie and another cyclone in the EPAC named Rosa will move up towards Mexico and her moisture will move deep into the desert SE causing more flooding and then her moisture will mingle with westbound frontal systems and that is what weather is all about. You can Google it or look it up on Twitter but it's not being shown much on the news today. Remember the Islands have elevation so water runs downhill there often so you have flooding and more flooding and it's not as bad as North and South Carolina from Florence but much troubling weather from a minimal tropical storm.

We will possibly revisit Kirk down the road.
Or the moisture remaining from X Kirk.

Now let's talk about Rosa.
Nice name.. I know.

Rosa becomes part of USA weather.
Weather flows always.

He makes great maps.
Models shown below.
PLEASE... be aware of the FLOODING threat.
Please know campers in the desert southwest...
May deal with strong, flash floods.
Tropical rain in the desert is never a good thing.
But rain falling over farmland is...
It's all about timing and location.
Rain is a blessing... can be a curse too.

Cranky has maps he makes.
I write. I write and describe.

I'll show this map and remind you.
It's not over til the end of October.
The ap below shows where systems may form.
Atlantic has candy stripes.
North Atlantic has dark red.
Then our eyes turn to SW Carib....
..and the Yucatan area.

I'll talk more on this another time.
By Sunday Kirk should be gone....
... Leslie should get her  name back.

This is the time between Florence.........
...and the next big storm.
It's about Pumpkin Spice Lattes.
Changing leaves, falling leaves.
Stalled cold fronts in the Carolinas.
Then stronger ones that push through.
And the Earth is always moving.
Meteorologists love geology.
Geologists love meteorology.

My advice in this turbulent time in which we live.
Find some music you love ....
..and enjoy it alone or with someone you love.
Whatever rocks your boat.

I love weather and I love my friends.
I love my family.
I love.

I love the water vapor loop :)
I love the way everything flows.... 

My taste in music evolves.
Always evolve.
Always find your flow...
..and go with it.

(love love love this song)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter..

Ps... special thanks ... 

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