Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Updated w music and thoughts on Cindy- - Tropical Storm Cindy Forms 45 MPH - Stationary in the N GOM - TS Bret WNW 40 MPH

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Current advisory has TS Cindy stationary.
Swirling in the Gulf of Mexico
Waiting for her ticket out of town.
Bret has been written out of the Soap Opera.
I know you're wondering.......
Is this Morgan blown away with no body?
Tina going over the falls but no body found....
Can Bret return?
No models show that currently.
But it's moisture lingers in the Caribbean.
Though most of it is being swept away...
If not for the ULL forming South of Cuba..
...might have had a chance to be a contender!!

Bret's remnants would have to survive that deep diving trench.
In fact moisture is being pulled North and NE 

Now let's look back at the GOM

In the GOM Cindy is hopelessly in love with an ULL
Like the moth to the flame it hangs there...
...suspended in motion swirling stationary.
Rooted to it's core staring at the ULL
Perhaps the ULL longs for Cindy.
Hard to say...

This is not a Category 4 Hurricane plowing towards Miami or Charleston or Houston so I'm being a bit silly tonight. It is what it is and it is a minimal tropical storm loaded with all the extras with weather that will rain itself out for the next few days when it finally moves towards land.  Steering currents are weak. We need a hero to take this girl and take her breath away. 

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

Bad boy feature coming in from the West...
...beginning to be visible.
Cindy will begin to move towards Texas.
Cindy's moisture will inundate Louisiana and other states.
Cindy should be picked up following the ULL
Towards land and then jerk back suddenly.
As if she was taking a ride on . . . 

That's the plan.

Discussion from the NHC below.

Tomorrow is another day.
And I doubt Cindy will look much different.
Last visible image from tonight is better than last night.

It is what it is...'s a messy lopsided, minimal tropical storm.
Some intensifying is expected before landfall.
Oh and from the dying frontal boundary..
..energized my tropical moisture Atlanta had flooding today.
Put in your zipcode and check out your warnings!

From the NHC below....

Seems a life time since we had a busy season.
Hasn't been that long but here we are...
Looking for tropical systems in all the wrong places.
People complaining Bret was short lived.
People complaining Cindy looks poorly.
It is what it is...
it is JUNE.

We had two named storms in June.
Can you imagine what July or August might be like?
September Remember...
Til then it is what it is

And tomorrow the center of Cindy should say Hello Texas..
...but her moisture is going to say Hello USA.
And THAT is what tropical storms are made for...
..they provide moisture up into the heartland.
Summer crops grow better here than in Russia.
GOM moisture moves inland.
When you have too much rain in Atlanta it's not good.
When you don't have enough rain in a corn field...
...the corn field burns up.
Since time began tropical storms have been washing up inland.
Providing beneficial rains people have prayed for...
Sometimes people get in the way.

Do NOT drive into a covered road way.
Turn around don't drown.
Seek higher ground if you area floods.
And watch the NWS for constantly changing warnings.

So tomorrow Cindy makes her move towards Texas.
I'll be back tomorrow with constant updates.
Cause this girl is leaving town tomorrow!
Out of the GOM towards land.
Might dawdle but it's going!

Okay now you know...
...was one of my favorite movies.
Wore cowboy boots all over LA in the early 80s ;)

Keep reading if you haven't read my blog earlier today.
Sit a spell and tap your boots.
Make a plan for the rest of Hurricane Season.
Because I think the drought is over...

Sweet Tropical Dreams 
Follow me along on twitter @bobbistorm

Both together shown below.

Note how long Cindy's tail goes down into the Caribbean.
And remember this is ALL ABOUT RAIN.
And probable flooding from the rain even inland.
Especially inland.

Based on visual imagery and surface observations the NHC decided to upgrade PTC3 to Tropical Storm Cindy with 45 MPH winds currently stationary and spinning over the warm waters of the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Shear has so far kept it's intensity low and hindered it's organization. Recon should be in the storm later this afternoon and we will have more information regarding the inner workings of TS Cindy that cannot be ascertained by watching loops online. The NHC leaves open the ability to later make this a Subtropical Storm vs a Tropical Storm. If they do that I'll explain it but basically a Subtropical has strong weather far away from the center, whereas with a normal TS or Hurricane the strongest winds are close to the center. There are other differences but for now let's go with what it is and it is TS Cindy.

It's worth noting there still are some multiple centers in the larger storm that is Cindy and that is common in large, poorly defined Tropical Storms especially early in the Hurricane Season. Again we currently have 2 Tropical Storms at the same time in the month of June and our next named storm will be the D storm as Arlene formed way back before we got really busy. You might want to keep this list handy as we seem to be speeding through it at almost record time.

Back to Cindy and it's forecast track.

Models have come together today.
The Texas Louisiana Border is probable landfall.
That's known as the Sabine River ....'s no stranger to tropical storms.
Low lying areas, bayou like prone to flooding.
Landfall could be a bit to the West of there ..or East.
Landfall is less important with Cindy than the whole package.

I want you to look at the above image.

Below is the morphed composite.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Watch the amount of dark oranges and reds..
...moving up into the GOM.

There is almost a never ending supply of tropical moisture.
Okay, at some point it will stop. 
But not for a while.

I'm not going to show you models as currently they are not important. You can go to Spaghetti Models or any site you like such as and the models are available. This is not as much about the exact location of a well defined eye making landfall as we would have in a hurricane, but a broad area of intense moisture displaced well to the East of the center of the storm pulling up copious amounts of tropical moisture today, tomorrow and the day after across the whole SE along the rim of the Gulf of Mexico and as far inland as Atlanta. There was a small tornado near Hilton Head today. It's raining in many places in the SE and there have already been a batch of tornado warnings today in the Florida panhandle. This is NOT about landfall, it's about the huge moisture shield moving in tandem with Cindy. Levi Cowan used the word copious today in his discussion on Tropical Tidbits, it's a good word and worth your time to check out his site. It's also featured top left on 

Look how much moisture we are talking about.
The radar roll currently is lit up.

The above is not a model forecast.
The above is the current radar across the SE.

Below is a model for 5 Days.

This is what we call a slow motion disaster.
Or rather it has the potential to be one.
The heaviest rainfall should be East of landfall.
Then with time extrapolate that inland.

Another problem with this storm is the potential for inland flooding. Interior Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama moving up either into the Appalachian Mountains and or into the Piedmont. 

Tropical Moisture + Old Stalled Out Frontal Boundary + Topography with Mtns = FLOODING.

You add those factors up and you get what often goes down in history as epic flooding. This will play out well past landfall, so we have time to see if the worst will happen or if instead the steering currents change and it moves out faster. Oh and did I mention Tornadoes? Let's mention tornadoes again as weak, large, lumbering tropical storms are very prone to tornadoes far away from the center that you see on a map. Way outside the "cone" for landfall and movement tornadoes can spin up. The many problems of weak Tropical Storms vs compact, well formed hurricanes. Less wind, more rain and flooding impacts. More chances of random, fast moving tornadoes forming in bands over several days.

Basically everyone from Texas to Florida and points inland need to worry on this Tropical Storm. use this link to see the exact location of the watches and warnings and know they will be updated again at 5 PM. It's a unique set up and I hope I have conveyed that enough to you. Because normally if you live in say Mobile and see a cone aimed at Beaumont Texas . . . normally you would feel safe and clear to go about life like normal. There is nothing normal about Cindy. I cannot say this enough times.

Back to Bret in the Caribbean.

Bret has moved off the coast of South America.
It's path may go further North into the Caribbean.
It is forecast to die out down the road.
Time will tell.

Some models do keep Bret alive.
Most models kill it off.
Keep watching until it's buried!

I'm a writer and a specialist in Hurricane History. I'll leave the graphics and modeling to others. The image above is the main page at and if you look carefully it's confusing as it seems as if Bret links up with Cindy. What that actually shows is the track of each system so far. Could some remnants of Bret remain and reform where Cindy first showed itself as a yellow circle? Anything seems possible in 2017. But what it does show is the general pattern of storms for now to trace there way around the strong High, end up near the Yucatan and head into the Gulf of Mexico. Move the High a bit more to the East and they could come up over Cuba towards Florida just as easily. Make the High a bit stronger and they could move towards landfall in Central America. A close up of the area I wanted to highlight is below.

I won't go long on Bret as the NHC doesn't think it will be here long.
Enough to know it is there and creating weather.
And in places often dry such as the ABC islands.
There are actually deserts in the Caribbean.

What I do want to show right now is the newest wave off of Africa.

Note poorly formed but INTENSE Cindy.
Beautifully formed but weak Bret.
And another strong wave coming off of Africa.

A very distant model for July 4th.
Not reliable but interesting.
Most interesting is the strength of the High.

Don't concentrate on the Low in the Atlantic.
Concentrate on the HUGE High Pressure

I'll be back later with more information.

The NHC cannot say it enough...
Be #Hurricanestrong.
They are doing their part...
..YOU have to do yours!

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbisstorm on Twitter.
Follow me on Twitter for immediate updates.

Ps One of my favorite singers and songs.

Next name up on the list is Don.
Are you Hurricane Strong for Don or Emily or Franklin?
This could be the year the Emily name gets retired.....

Something to think on...

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


Post a Comment

<< Home