2 PM Update. Possible Cat 4 Down the Road... OFFICIALLY HURRICANE UPDATED AT 1 PM BY NHC Texas and Hurricane Harvey. Areas East of Texas Need To Stay Vigilant and Far Inland Up to Austin Watch Carefully For Flash Flooding. Could Harvey Become a Major Hurricane? The Possibility is There..

Ongoing information coming in from the NHC.
They have upped the five day forecast.
Intensity forecast that is...
.... just under Cat 4 strength in 36 hours!!!



Wider view and something to think on..



NHC currently has upped the forecast.
Explanation is below (NHC)

Salient part.

Now forecast to be 125 MPH

That's just shy of Cat 4...

So there are multiple problems here.

I want to be clear here on what I am saying. The forecast that has given us the forecast cone, short term and long term was not based on information they currently possess. Those models were forecast for a weak Hurricane in the GOM and now the scenario has changed and we have a Hurricane that is massive in size and forecast to be knocking on Category 4 strength. You cannot blow a forecast that badly and have the rest of it verify perfectly. Hopefully with better data from the recent recon and the stronger winds, lower pressure and current position the next few forecasts may be better. It's impossible to mess up intensity and timing of intensification so much and have the rest of it verify as it's a mathematical equation. If you change one factor, the answer changes. Why am I saying this? Because if you are in the cone or near the cone take Harvey with extreme caution and maximize your preparations as soon as possible. Not tomorrow when we "see what we will see" but NOW. As things may change and they may change fast. Note the map from the NRL below and understand it always goes wider than the NHC cone as ... well they have to protect their interests so follow the Navy on this one and if you are in that grid... you could feel some impact from very dangerous Hurricane Harvey when it becomes a strong Major hurricane.

NOTE THERE IS EXTREMELY STRONG WEATHER WAY OUT IN THE GOM FAR FROM THE CENTER. That area NE of the EYE has hurricane force winds in it and so this needs to be watched carefully. 

If you live inside this shaded grid...

...or very close be very concerned.

Again and this is only one thought. If the anticyclone that builds above Hurricane Harvey as it becomes a Major Hurricane it is possible if it finds a weakness in the ridge it busts through that ride and takes off rather than stalling and moves far inland. Well, the weather could move far inland (think Matthew in NC after the storm changed directions the weather moved in the old direction) and talking serious Flash Flooding in the Hill Country as well as major coastal damage to structures as well as the beach itself. IF it continues to sit half on and half off the coastline as earlier forecasts (before the new information) we can have a hurricane that is partly over water, not losing strength yet the wicked weather associated with it can keep going inland. I hope that makes sense but trust me, if you live up near San Antonio and Austin do not think this is a coastal event only. And don't expect yesterday's forecast to be tomorrow's forecast, things are changing rapidly.

Again the next few model runs should show something different, as they are now working with the exact location of Harvey and a forecast of 125 MPH winds in 36 hours.

I'll update later and continue live blogging with information that is important and needs to be disseminated in order to save people's lives. Being very honest here knowledge is power and there are many people in this area that haven't experienced a Major Hurricane and unless you have been through one... you just can't imagine. Whatever you think you can imagine, it's way more dangerous and more complex. You can board up a building, but in areas where there is new construction, for example, they are not going to take down scaffolding (there is no time) and that goes airborne and well "hurricane proof" windows are not always so hurricane proof. This is about as bad as it gets for an area that is prone to serious flooding due to the shape of the bay bottom meaning a Higher Storm Surge than other parts of the world get. 

More later... 

nhc.noaa.gov

http://www.weather.gov/

Very brief update on HURRICANE Harvey

That's official.

Forecast to be a Major Hurricane.

Pressure down and dropping.

A developing hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico ...
...is awesome to watch from far away.

Earlier at 11 AM the  NHC danced around the fact that an eye like feature had developed in Tropical Storm Harvey and they mentioned the pressure has dropped and they believe winds will go up and I quote "with a pressure this low, it is likely that the winds will respond and increase further, and Harvey probably isn't too far from becoming a hurricane" and that's likely the biggest understatement of the year. Harvey is even amping up the convection close to Florida taking up the whole of the Gulf of Mexico in ways.

NHC forecasts Harvey will be 115 MPH in 36 hours. That would make Harvey a Major Hurricane and that's the NHC talking, not just me.  I did say earlier I wouldn't be surprised not based on models but based on watching satellite imagery of Harvey. Many have said it and indeed TWC refers to it as an EYE WALL as does Levi Cowan on his update (link below) so it's time for those aircraft that never went into Gert to make the call regarding upgrade to Hurricane with Harvey. Sorry sarcasm is as nice as I can get here, it is what it is and it's obvious what it is.........

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

The truth is people in the path or near the path really need to prepare. Wide areas far from the center can be hit with tornadoes, inland flooding and if the models are correct and the steering currents break down then this can evolve over the next few days and through the whole weekend. 

One small possibility is that if and when Harvey goes Cat 3 then there is a chance it can influence the steering currents. A Major Hurricane can bust a ridge easier or lean into one area and help rearrange the upper level flow as they are their own separate sort of hurricane. A high develops often aloft and that can slightly alter the overall steering currents. Will have to see how this plays out in real time.

Note that weather is already moving towards the areas under watches and warnings. Strong squalls out ahead of the storm.

Cantore discusses the tornado threat.

Economy may take a hit as well.

From oil well to rice beds Texas is rich in resources.

It's over populated so the number of people in it's path is huge.

Texas has not taken a hit like this in a long time.

That's a hurricane.

Done deal.

Just a matter of when NHC makes it "official"

Stay tuned for updates throughout the day.

Also because it is growing in width.

A large hurricane can break down a high easier..

..than a weak one.

You can also check out the link below.

He knows surf, Texas has a large coastline.

http://dabuh.com/forecast/

60 MPH Tropical Storm...

..knocking hard on Hurricane Strength

986 MB and dropping like a rock.

Note that IF Harvey becomes a Hurricane as I expect it will sooner rather than later and expands it's wind field (which will happen) then this cone above will be widened out possibly in future advisory packages. The area that could be under the gun could go wider unless Harvey becomes a small, compact Hurricane in which case the hurricane wind field will have to be calculated carefully. Stay tuned, check back often. By the time finish editing this Harvey will be stronger than the stated 60 MPH. If you live in the path or near the path of what will be Hurricane Harvey please take this extremely seriously and just because there has been a major drought of land falling hurricanes does not mean it will continue. Harvey may be the drought buster and in the language of meteorologists it will up the ACE really quickly for the 2017 Hurricane Season.

Again a reminder.

When you see GREEN it's intensifying.

When the Green is in the middle of red.

An eye is forming.

You can take that to the bank.

Models still are messy on the 5th day.

Consistent in the short term.

Another great product on Mike's site.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

Beyond the basics this morning of intensity, forward speed, motion, direction and whether we trust the models or not I want to discuss Texas and how hurricanes impact it differently. When I say differently I mean that because Texas is a diverse state; a land of it's own and it's a tale of two countries. Texas Hill Country and Coastal Bays and Bayous and both have their own inherent problems though flooding impacts them differently.

A good place to start as always is the NWS.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lch/events/txhurricanehistory.pdf

The hill country around Austin and beyond has elevation and sudden dips in the elevation and creeks that have no water in them unless a storm moves in and then the water rushes through them taking with it anything in it's path. It's a disconnect when you grow up around East Coast rivers to be driving through that part of Texas and you see a sign stating a Creek is there with some local colorful name and yet there is not a drop of water in it. Looks like a rock bed a geologist would be studying to find igneous or metamorphic rocks when suddenly a trickle of water becomes a rushing torrent and his research project and his very life could be in danger if he does not get out fast!

Leaving some blurbs here from Wikipedia. Some of Texas Hill country is wide open, beautiful and known for it's incredible spring flowers abundant everywhere. Other areas have higher elevation and other areas are actually cities and towns where people live and carefully watch for any talk of flash flooding.

As this relates to Harvey...

Note the situation overview below.

 

Cities far from the immediate path of Harvey..

..are watching Harvey far inland.

Below is from San Angelo, Texas.

Then we move down to the coast.

The beautiful Texas coast.

Fishing, beaching, boating.

Just getting away from it all.

Harvey is an unwelcome visitor.

Great video below to put this in perspective.

http://www.extremestorms.com/

Randomly picking the town Matagorda Bay as it's a popular hurricane destination and a good example of the problems the coastal towns deal with vs the hill country far inland. Coastal towns are used to tropical systems making landfall. They are not used to strong hurricanes making landfall as it has been a while. That leads to underestimating them with people who think they have seen a real hurricane, yet were on the outer bands or had strong weather from a Tropical Storm. A strong hurricane is way different from a strong tropical storm. I was in Hurricane Andrew on Miami Beach in 1992 and trust me... people who think they know what a hurricane is do not know unless they have been through a real hurricane and lived to tell about it. Jim Williams knows hurricanes and putting his link below for the city I'm writing about today. Randomly choosing that city as it's a good smaller town to talk about rather than the big cities like Galveston where the media is camped out this morning.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/matagorda.htm

A good guide to the top ten Texas beaches below.

http://www.onlyinyourstate.com/texas/amazing-beaches-tx/

Often the homes are built up on stilts.

Because it floods easily.

http://www.matagordabay.com/lodging-page4.htm

If you have the money and the time check out that link for a sweet beach rental. 

Hurricane Ike flooded out that area badly. Bolivar Island in particular took a huge hit.

I wrote about this on my blog. Please read later as it's a good guide to as what could happen and what did happen and what will happen again in this part of the country along the coast.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2008/09/ikes-aftermath-bolivar-peninsula-past.html

As for Houston they are on alert. The newer models and cones take Harvey a bit more to the West than to the East and the steering currents are still a question. I say a question as steering currents are prone to suddenly jerking left or right and a trof is stronger than it looks and grabs the hurricane or a high builds in .... everything is fluid, remember that. And, again if this becomes a strong hurricane (and that could happen) it is more prone to any tug, pull or invitation to go North that the atmosphere is putting out there. A stronger, well wrapped hurricane is bad for Texas and makes the flood threat lessen in places such as Louisiana and Mississippi. Also worth noting that some models veer it to the left harder and move it more into Tex Mex vs wandering up the Mississippi River Valley merging with a front. There are just so many intangibles.

And adding that the bayous around Houston are another area vastly different from the beaches along the coast and the Hill Country inland.

The biggest intangible currently is how strong Harvey will be and personally in this set up I would not rule out Category 2 and I would not be surprised if this becomes a Major Hurricane. I am not saying it will; I am saying I would not be surprised.

I'll be updating throughout the day. I wanted to take the time today to highlight the problems in the path of Harvey. We all know what the 1900 Hurricane did to Galveston but there is a world beyond Galveston and Houston and each of those worlds have their own devils they will be having to face when Hurricane Harvey makes landfall. Again, I would not be surprised if it becomes a Major Hurricane. Spinning, taking up the whole Gulf of Mexico it seems today and over very warm water with low shear. Near Hurricane Strength now even if the official forecast says otherwise. That forecast will be updated. I'll update later today.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Again NOW is the time to prepare and figure out if you need to evacuate and if not to figure out what you will do if you do not. The time to get a plan was months ago when it was quiet, now is the time to carefully execute that plan. If you have friends or family in the path of Harvey you might want to call them and double check where they will be and how they will stay in touch with you as best they can. 

Ps..

One of my favorite old movies.

Shame he wasn't a meteorologist.

They missed a good plot like there.

Steve should have been a storm chaser..