Hurricane Harbor: What Do You Do With A Problem Like Danny? Thoughts on NHC Discussion. A Look Back at Bryan Norcross and Andrew. How Do We Make a Forecast? Will Danny Survive?

There is a circulation there visible..on the visible loop.

Tropical Storm Danny at 5 ... still alive. But lacking intense convection as the convection is being vacuumed up by SAL.

The 5PM discussion out of the NHC is similar to what I wrote this morning. Danny is Dusty and needs to get rid of the dust (SAL) to move on and intensify. It can't thrive in such a negative environment. I'll illustrate below by showing what the NHC said at 5PM and what I said this morning in my blog.

What I posted this morning:

How does he look now?

They used the "V" word.. vigorous.

That's usually a hazy term used to say "looks good, but"

Often before a wave gets classified they call it "vigorous"

A Tropical Storm is supposed to look defined.

Okay so let's look at Vigorous Danny

Looks more like a Tropical Depression that isn't so vigorous...

But, the NHC is holding it's intensity at 50 mph.

Imagine pending evaluation later tonight.

To me Dvorak doesn't look so good.

Perhaps they took it on a good frame...

It is supposed to have a big dark circle..

with a white large circle inside..

Moving on...

Next part of the discussion deals with models.

The NHC uses models to help make a forecast.

The models are available online to most people.

So now they have to defend their forecast always.

That's something that Bob Sheets didn't have to do years back..

Translation:

Dry air IS a problem.

Short term some modest intensification.

(enough to hang in there...)

Then shear increases again threatening it.

Models disagree.

They go with consensus or basically average out the models.

They do their best.

Danny is perhaps not doing his best.

The 5 PM Discussion is well done.

I was wondering how they would explain things.

Good job by Kimberlain.

I've highlighted "model talk"

Seems the Euro (ECWMF) may have been right.

Time will tell.

You get the idea sometimes it's a shoot out?

You know like those IPhone vs Galaxy tests online?

Nuff Said...

What do I think?

I think if Danny slows down much more he may end up merging with the wave behind him and there will soon be talk on relocation or multiple centers. I know it's a 50 MPH Tropical Storm, but it looks a lot like an intense Monsoon Trough.

Monsoon Trough

Danny Yesterday Below

This was Danny's 1st Baby Picture...

Today's Visible.

That's our Vigorous Danny today.

No, it doesn't look so vigorous. It looks like it is hanging in and trying to hold on to his name. He doesn't look like a 50 MPH system, but maybe he is... When recon goes in (if there is something to go into...) in about 3 days we will know for sure. So sit back, and watch Danny fight for his life against soon to hit shear and continued SAL. No, not a very positive environment. But, we knew that going into this season and the fact that he is here and got this fair is pretty amazing.

Is the NHC being truthful? Yes (wincing) they are doing their best in a difficult situation with a weak Tropical Storm that some models forecast to be a strong hurricane that could affect PR and the VI Islands...and other islands and possibly land beyond....should he stay an entity.

Last year at a Conference in New Orleans I was asked questions on how the NHC puts out there forecast. I was the Keynote Speaker for Mariposa Insurance Services at their Conference Series. It's hard for people not in the business of forecasting a hurricane understand how the NHC puts out a forecast package. They know the AFTER THE STORM part of the story, but not the before and to many it seems strange. Example, today Danny looks like barely a TD but he is officially a 50 MPH Tropical Storm. May I say he looked better as a vigorous wave... Yet, some Insurance Adjuster may end up going out somewhere in Florida in a small town that may end up with damage from Danny. I learned a lot from them about their part of the story. Nice hard working people; a really wonderful experience.

The NHC is tasked with the job of preparing the official forecast that many government agencies use to prepare the general public for an impending storm. It's a matter of the "buck stops here" and a huge responsibility. For instance Bryan Norcross, one of the smartest people I know who knows tropical meteorology better than anyone, does not work for the NHC. He can say anything he wants on TWC. He is always careful with his words and shows the utmost respect for the NHC, but if he infers online that Miami or Tampa are going to get hit with Hurricane Bryan in 3 days time... the government agencies do not start the process of opening up shelters and asking tourists to leave the Florida Keys. Schools are not closed and the official ball doesn't start rolling. It is true that people ALL over Miami or Tampa will run to Publix and create utter confusion in the water aisle, but it's not the "official" line even though he is more trusted than anyone in Miami.

You know the rest of the story.

Andrew hung in, found a spot with a positive environment.

Intensified and turned West.

Here we have Cantore doing Andrew...

and John Hope and some Bryan Norcross.

NO I am NOT saying Danny can be the next Andrew.

I am saying it's possible Danny can be Hurricane Danny

Even though tonight he looks kind of ... vigorous.

Back to the discussion on how the NHC puts out their forecast package. It's important to have as much continuity in their forecast package as possible. Some guy named CYCLONESURFER can go on TWITTER and tweet "It's headed straight for Key Largo" and he may have a good reason for why Key Largo when the NHC forecast says "Florida Straits along the North Coast of Cuba" and if he has been right in the past and people like him he gets followed and he might be right. The NHC may wait another six hours before making a dramatic shift and having model support as well as good recon data to make major changes to the forecast package. They start with the previous forecast package and see how it verified, why it didn't verify and explain their reasoning while giving general forecast info such as "expecting a turn to the WNW" or "conditions should improve in 2 - 3 days as shear lessens and... "

To be honest it's good, because sometimes a storm seems to fall apart for 6 hours and then 6 hours later it goes through Rapid Intensification. Government planners are tasked with the jobs of shutting down high schools, opening up shelters, arranging contra flow on causeways from islands off shore and the list goes on and on. The NHC is the one that makes the call, they are the one who hoists Hurricane Warnings for the Virgin Islands. People in the Virgin Islands may put on TWC to see if Bryan Norcross is on and what he thinks or what Cantore says, but the wheels of government begin turning when the Hurricane Warning is posted by the NHC.

Currently there are NO watches or warnings for Tropical Storm Danny. There are islands in it's long term path that need to watch it carefully. Never let your guard down because a TS looks like it's dying until the last rain shower is gone, poof... dead.

Cities in its possible long range path that may have watches or warnings posted are listed here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/192032.shtml?

Seems everyone is in it... all the islands are watching and beyond that... Florida is watching.

Trust me when people in Miami, Charleston and Tampa go online and check out Spaghetti Models and see these tracks... they are paying attention.