Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

TS DANNY Forms. Hurricane Strength Forecast. Rapid Intensity Might Be a Question. Models Disagree..

Tropical Storm Danny

Dusty Danny
Forms in the Atlantic.

The light grayish spots are dust.
Note the two eyes looking West inside Danny's Core.

Perhaps the eyes are the eyes to the soul....

Danny looks to be saying...

"Oh my goodness! What have I gotten myself into??"

We have a cone from the NHC.
Compare and contrast the models below with the actual Cone.

NHC Cone at 5 PM for TS Danny

Note the Cone includes all the above models...
Do NOT look at the center of the cone..
...even though the add dots in...
As Danny could take the top side of the cone as well.

Note advisory says he is moving West... he was forecast to move WNW.
Remember that!

Note the locations in it's possible path have widened.

St. Maarten has the same chances as Trinidad ...

Discussion from NHC:

Note 3 models are mentioned here.
Note they do not all agree.
NHC blends them.

Intensity Forecast from NHC

IF Danny intensifies faster... be skeptical.
IF Danny intensifies slower... be skeptical.

Let me call your attention to something many of us are discussing.
There is the possibility that Danny could go through a state of RI.
RI = Rapid Intensification
IF SO...that changes everything.
Note intensity forecast above from NHC shows a slow intensification.

Wes is one of my favorite Raleigh weather forecasters.

This is one of the biggest questions.
Will the intensity forecasts verify or are they on the low side?

Useful graphic for those who like a bottom line.

John Morales from Miami takes the GFS point of view.
He likes to try and personally kill off Hurricanes.

For those of you who want to see it die... 
Root or Wish Cast for the GFS!

A look at Hurricane History.
Great Graphic here...will make Floridians sigh..

Note where the lines cross... David & Andrew
East of the Islands.
Just some examples from the past.

Then there's the Southern path.. 
Note Trinidad is in the Wind Probs.

Jim Williams has a page where you can watch ship and buoy reports.
Useful while a storm is this far out to sea still..

Years ago ... the NHC tracked storms by reports of ships at sea..

It's interesting. You learn a lot.

My thoughts:

I have many thoughts, but trying to stay focused and organized.

There is much disagreement among the models and many vastly different from the current forecast and intensity track the NHC has gone with may not be the end track. A lot has to fall into place for this forecast to verify. I hear the NHC, I'm just also aware it's far away and a lot can change. Let's see how the 3 day forecast verifies and then we'll see what happens 5 days out. It's good to say they are getting better at forecasting 5 days out, but 72 hours before this storm was a TD there was not even a 10% Yellow Dot on their 5 day forecast. Weather changes fast in real time even with the help of models and satellite imagery.

Danny is forecast to be a small system and small systems can spin up fast and go through Rapid Intensification easier than larger storms. Small systems are sports cars and large systems are 18 wheelers. They can also fall apart and become discombobulated just as fast. Will this really become a small, midget like hurricane? I have a lot of questions on that. I've seen the model that makes it go through a shrinking process. I can't buy it yet. I need to see signs of it before I go along with that, as currently Danny is a classic Cape Verde Storm. Long graceful arms that reach out in all directions. Banding is beautiful. 

As long as Danny continues West he avoids the stronger shear. IF he intensifies and pulls more to the right he would have to deal with stronger shear. There is ALWAYS shear at the entrance to the Caribbean, sometimes stronger, sometimes not so strong. 

Danny is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the
west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest on Wednesday.

Look at the overall loop of Danny in relation to the tropics.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

Beautiful, big storm with a long tail and banding on the N side even.
Sill the lead wave is blocking the SAL from choking Danny dry.

Right now with the possibility of Rapid Intensification happening and continued low shear and the beautiful presentation of Danny on Satellite Imagery it is very hard to believe it will not pull to the right of the forecast track and the Northern end of the island chain shouldn't pay close attention to Danny. I'm not saying Danny is headed to PR and the Virgin Islands, I am saying why wouldn't he head towards them as a stronger Hurricane? The last wave ended up there, the one before that one did and the atmospheric flow on most given days would take it there. Time will tell. It needs to get closer to the islands and we need to get Recon into the storm to get the best model package.

It's also hard to see it falling apart as some models have forecast, unless the NHC is off on the shear forecasts and upper level winds.

Any model package without Recon is subject to errors. Errors extrapolated over several days become wide errors a week later. You know the old saying, garbage in.. garbage out...

Should Miami keep an eye on it??? DEFINITELY!! You never ignore an intensifying tropical storm forecast to be a 100 MPH Hurricane to the ESE of you .. EVER... NEVER.  But, that said it is far away and in 3 days time we should have a way better idea of what we really do or don't need to worry on.

What about you?
What do you think this storm will do?

Join in the conversation on Facebook...

Leave your thoughts ;) is a great message board.
Hosted by has discussion without the hype. has great maps, graphics & incredible discussion.

Another thought...

Try tracking a storm... by hand.
APPS are incredible.
You see a storm from a different perspective when you track.
Also... some great advice here for how to prepare for a hurricane.

Got to click on the link to see the map...
Or...use the great APP linked below.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Here's a view of Barbados.
1st Island in Danny's current track.


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