Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

ASCAT Says TD, NHC Says NADA. Waiting on Upgrade... 96L Plodding Along Straddling Warm Water Line

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Mini Update This Morning... 
NHC has indicated they will upgrade at 11 AM.
Will update with Cone and Discussion Soon

It's this simple.
There's a song from way back.
Classic advice.

Accentuate the Positive:
Has a nice circulation or almost a circulation.
(depending on who you believe)
It's managed to travel this far intact.
Has a low pressure center attached.
Nice shape and form.
Managed to stay low and avoid being eaten by SAL

Tweet from Levi Cowan and I agree.

Looks closed to me.
NHC makes the call though... 
They will upgrade it to Danny....

Must eliminate the negative:
SAL... gets lighter the further it goes West.
Water Temps...get warmer the further it gets to the West.

Bottom Line
It pulsed up last night as I said in my previous post.
Had problems at first light trying to maintain that pulse.
The core remains tight.
Nice curvature, by staying low it gained some curve on the top.

I could not buy into the big right turn some models showed last night.
It's small, weak and it would need to be big and strong to turn right fast.

Watch the water temps to understand this system.
It's been straddling the warmer water S of SAL
Staying "weak and disorganized" it will get further West.
Further West keeps it a landfall threat down the line.
Rule of thumb:
It has to be organized before it gets into the E Caribbean.
Or it would be in danger of falling apart... some models have indicated.
Those are the models not forecasting a tight hurricane....

Fly in the Ointment:

Needs to maintain convection and closed appearance.

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Having problems doing that.
Should get the upgrade later today.

Note it is not near land.
Recon cannot yet go's too far away.
No reason to rush to upgrade.. it's being watched either way.
Favors upgrade to TD now.
Danny Later

Nuff Said..

Waiting for the 11 AM Discussion
on Tropical Depression #4

What do you think?

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Besos Bobbi

Ps... Potential Track and note... 
Remember yesterday I spoke on an area off the Carolinas...
It's still being watched.
Headed out to sea...
Probably subtropical if at all..
Yellow circle on NHC
Potential track of "DANNY"


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