Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Invest 96L Goes Orange. 60% Chances in 5 Days Models & Track. Tropics Got Mojo.. Waking Up

Update as of 2 PM.

Invest 96L has now been upgraded to 60% chances in 5 days.
For a system that wasn't on the NHC radar 24 hours ago that's news.

They call that "medium" chances.
In truth its greater than 50/50.

Note how fast things can change in the tropics this time of year.

Keep that in mind regarding any other areas of tropical convection.
Just because there is no model support now...
...does not mean there won't be tomorrow.

Models are fickle lovers...

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Note the change in the models currently.
Compare and contrast from recent discussion below.

They pull more to the WNW or NW based on intensity models.
Intensity models show Invest 96L gets the name Danny.
How strong Danny would be... directly related to the direction Danny travels.

Mind you these are not the A Team models...

It's a process.
6 hours ago it went from yellow to orange.
24 hours ago... it was just a wave leaving Africa.

Please read the rest of the discussion as it is still time worthy.
I'll update this evening as events warrant.

Do I think this can make landfall somewhere?
Hard to say.

Stays low it's through the Straits into GOM.
Texas Bound some say (not me)

It can also fall apart... 
It can also head towards FL...
Or the Carolinas...

You get the idea..
Way too soon to tell.
But, oh how fast things can change ...

Invest 96L is bucking for Tropical Depression Status.

Never write off a fighter wave in the Atlantic in a strong El Nino..
A wave not afraid of Godzilla..

Stay tuned...
Definitely Developing......

Discussion as of 10 AM Sunday.
Keep reading...

Invest 96L has a nice spin

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A solid consolidation of convection at it's core.

Model support that keeps it going the distance.

Note IF this intensifies it pulls North of Due West.
IF it stays weaker it stays lower.
IF it develops too fast it becomes a fish storm... curving NE.

Too soon to tell.
 Early models aren't always reliable.
Too far East for Recon.
Only Satellite Imagery
And Ships at Sea

Looks good. It has a friend behind it.

In fact there are 3 areas that catch the eye.

Tropical Wave Nearing Bahamas
Invest 96L...entering Stage Right

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Our Invest is the one with model support.
The tropical wave is being tickled unmercifully by the ULL to it's North.
The Upper Level Low is diving down.
The Upper Level Low could be a factor in the track of Invest 96L as well.

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Almost looks like a black hurricane swirling and diving down.

Would be easy to say any rapid development will be short term.
Invest 96L has to fight a wall of dry air.

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It will be interesting to see the next model runs.

If you were asleep at 3 AM you missed it being a Yellow Area

What's different about this wave you may ask?
As the NHC says it has a low pressure center attached.

At this rate it wants to tango with El Nino.

People are watching.

Waiting on upgrade to red...
Watch out for Hype..
TWC just announced it's doubled it's odds...

From 20% in the 5 day to 40% in the 5 day.

The EURO develops it closer to the islands.
The water is warmer closer to the islands.
It has to get to the warmer water.

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It has to be the real thing to get to that point.
The big memorable storms in quiet years are the ones with the mojo to make it.
Loop below shows what it's facing.

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Mark Sudduth joked last night if it gets a name it should be Mothra.

Very funny.

The problem with systems that make it in El Nino Years is...


To name just a few . . .

It happens.

Right now... it's too soon to say.

Check back later.
Not much later....

 Besos Bobbi

Ps. Never ignore consistent convection close in...
The water close in is HOT..

Remember 3 days ago there was no development for the next 5 days.
Things change fast in the tropics...

athhp.gif (873×397)

People from Maine to Texas are suddenly wondering on Invest 96L


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