Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, August 15, 2015

Is the CV Wave Viable? Do the Models Like It? Which Models? Will Godzilla Win? Wave Moving Towards Bahamas Getting Closer and Closer

Tropical Wave near Hispaniola.
Tropical Wave in the East Atlantic.
Smaller wave moving West.
It's that time of year...

There's talk online...
Discussion on message boards.
Social Media.

I added the yellow to indicate possible track.
Conditions are not favorable for rapid development.
Conditions might not even be favorable for any development.
Time will tell. 

Hey we are sort of hungry for anything to talk about.
I'm watching Canadian Football as I write this..
Any football will do right now if it's on my screen.

What do I think?

Note the water IS warmer by Africa, but getting to our part of the world isn't so easy.

Nice wave but still not a lot to work with...
However, it is there and moving west like the last one.

Actual discussion out of the NHC is guarded.
Sort of hazy if you ask me.
It was repositioned.
Models are watching it.
A bit fractured.
A lot of IFS ...ANDS and BUTS..
But good discussion.
I highlighted the salient points 

Listen this happens this time of year as waves abound despite Saharan Dust and we are moving towards that period in the tropics where we look further East for viable waves that might get named... A real name, not just an Invest designation like the last one the models liked. Oh, note the models saw possible development in a wave that fizzled. Models are not perfect this far out, but happy to have them as they are worth their weight in gold.

It's all about the models.
You know that.

The models are also watching the shape of the High.
Pressure drops possibly down the tropical road.
Where vorticity may or may not form.

Trying to make sense of the models?
Sort of like trying to reason with hurricane season...

Let's compare the models to Pasta.
It's all about pasta... but which pasta do you prefer?

Let's call the EURO ... Linguine and let's call the GFS ... Macaroni.

Which do most people prefer and which is higher up the food chain?

The wave has not even left the Cape Verde Islands and already there is discussion by mets as to what the ECMWF shows vs the GFS. This is getting tiring. It's no longer about forecasting and discussion but trying to Monday Morning Quarterback on Friday evening based on computer programs showing each team's strengths and weaknesses.

Fox or CNN?
ALDI or Trader Joes...??
Butter or Parkay?
Euro or GFS??

I miss the old days when meteorologists talked on hurricane history, synoptics and details such as the structure of the wave, the environment vs... finding new unique ways to tell you what the two most watched models imply. And, how many different graphic can you make that shows the model better than another meteorologist? It was really exciting 15 years ago and we got better at it 5 to 10 years ago. Now it's getting old. Sort of like having 4 Weather Apps on your phone and trying to choose which one to look at ...or not at all. Why bother looking? If something is happening you'll get an alert, right? Some obsess and some never pay attention. The way of the world...........

Here's a song and a graphic.

Jeff Masters put out a primer on models earlier this week. Basically it's a mute point as no matter how many models we use, everyone runs to see what the ECMFW shows vs the GFS.

Read the link below and keep that in mind next time you see a Hurricane in the Tropical Atlantic.

One of the beauties of listening to a CD is it's a collection of music packaged by the artist on purpose for you to enjoy the way he wanted you to listen. Same goes with people who put musical collections up on Youtube for instance...

Listen to this beautiful Jimmy Buffet song below. If you only listen to Margaritaville and Come Monday on your local radio station you will not appreciate the intricacies of Jimmy Buffet and the poetry that he paints on musical landscapes.

Each model shows a different slice of the pie. It's a piece of chocolate cake, but is it mocha flavored or chocolate rum or possibly there's some fruit thrown in there... like strawberries.

Thank God we have the models and we have gotten better at forecasting because of them, but still I like some weather discussion rather than a Cliff Notes discussion on translating the models.

Back to our westward bound wave...


rb-l.jpg (720×480)

Some waves look good early on.
Then they fizzle and die.
Time will tell.
Forecasts forecast the future.
Time always tells.

Extra credit.
Why is no one talking about the wave that is moving closer to our part of the world? The models do not really show support.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

It's closer to land than the wave that might fizzle.
The models have been wrong this year favoring an Invest...
That fizzled in the dusty ocean, far from land.

Basically if you look to the north of the wave ..
You'll see an ULL digging down.
(Looks like a black swirl)
The interaction enhances convection in the wave.
Yet, creates interference with development.
Sometimes.......things change.
As it has made it this far, it's worth watching.
It's moving into warmer waters.
Worth watching as a sign of patterns...
... where the next wave might go..

At the moment it's kind of like a Moisture Surge..

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Moving closer to our part of the world.

This wave is closer to a salty piece of land... 
...but it's not on the charts or being played on the radio..

"The patron saint of lightning keeps the sailors from their graves."
Jimmy Buffett is unique. 
One of a kind.

He sing about parrots but he is not a parrot.
He's a poet and he knows it.

3 things to keep in mind...

1. Note we are now watching waves still over Africa. 
(Africa is prime time in late August...)
2. We are not watching the wave that has no model support.
(That sometimes changes, often not)
3. The water is warm close in but warming up in the Central Atlantic.
(Keep an eye on the wave as it gets into the Bahamas)
(Keep an eye on any dangling front or convection in the GOM)

Things to remember.
1. Shear in the Atlantic is weakening line with Climo.
El Nino or La Nina ... Climo still rules.
Waves may not become Hurricanes....
But they are there none the less... 
Trying their best!

2. SAL is also weakening... in line with Climo.
Second verse same as the first.

3. Waves are shooting off Africa nicely spaced.

4. Godzilla is still there.

Nice graphic put up by Jim Williams on
That's a mesage board on
A good message board. Good posters.
JASON stands for

(What did you think it stands for??)

Can Godzilla shut down the Tropical Atlantic?
Time will tell.

Lastly I leave you with one thought.
Concentrate on the placement of the High.
IF anything does develop... 
The High will steer the wave, Invest, named storm.

A loop worth watching is below...
Note the High over Florida. 
Where does it go?

Just something to think on.
I'll update as events unfold.
Hoping for an Invest out of this... 

Besos Bobbi

Ps. Never lose your smile. It takes a good 5 years off your looks ;)


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