Coconut Telegraph Forecasting. Patterns in the Tropics. Key West and Tampa Bay Hurricane History

Nothing organized in the tropics.

Well, the tropical Atlantic.

Hilda is headed to Hawaii... 

But, that's not my basin.

In any given Hurricane Season patterns exist.

Even in slow seasons such as this one

Note, slow in number of storms not landfalls.

This has been a year of land falling storms.

Patterns always exist. Sometimes a pattern is just a pattern and other times it's a sign of what might be next.

Climo is the overall flow of weather history over a long period of time. You average it all out and you find out Miami gets hit in October from Hurricanes out of the SW and North Carolina gets hit mostly in September from the South with a little variation in degrees.

Weather is up close and personal. You look out the window and it's raining. Breaking News...

Models predict possibilities based on intricate amount of data put into the model based on past weather and meteorological data add in computer programs available to us today.

Years ago the National Weather Service did not predict as much as report the weather that happened.

Now days.... the NWS forecasts the weather differently

They use computers now....not coconuts!!!

And, weather balloons.... 

Launched from the roof of their beautiful facilities.

Lot nicer than the original ones....

Good thing too cause Key West gets hurricanes.

Another old Florida city that gets hurricanes is Tampa.

What bothers me is that July of 1921 had record rainfall.

That was 6.5 inches of rain in early July 1921...

In October before the 1921 Cat 4 Hurricane was another storm.

A trof set up across the state that summer and early Fall.

Early cold fronts moved through Florida... 

A similar sort of set up has lingered around the area this year.

Patterns do exist.

It's been a wet year.

A slow year. 

Tampa gets hit directly in slow years.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/tampa.htm

Often Tampa is a bridesmaid but rarely a bride...

Affected vs a direct hit.

I can't say what this year will bring.

But, I would keep watching the Tampa Bay Area closely.

Moisture is moving up from the Caribbean.

An early season cold front is around.. but weak.

You keep that sort of set up going into September and October...

We may have to worry about Home Grown .. Close In Activity.

The water in the Caribbean is hot.

Most of the Atlantic Basin is cold.

The Caribbean is not.

However, this year is an El Nino Year.

1921 was a La Nina Year, tho by October it may have been waning..

http://www.el-nino.com/

El Nino Year or La Nina Year...

Tampa is always waiting for that big one...

http://www.83degreesmedia.com/features/hurricanes080315.aspx

A primer on what might happen if there is a hurricane.

Note on Mike's www.spaghettimodels.com there's some great links.

Down below the info on the Pacific...

Winds & Pressure in the Gulf.

Also note the circle around the wave being watched in the Carib.

Ignoring the wave off of Africa.

I'm trying to deal with my addiction to Cape Verde Waves ;)

Note.... a wave is entering the Caribbean.

This pattern bears watching in any year.

So stay tuned...

And, be thankful the NHC and the NWS is watching out for you!!

Besos Bobbi

Ps... even in slow seasons big storms happen.. worth remembering