Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, August 17, 2015

#96L 80% Chances of being Danny ... Came Back Strong Tonight. POSSIBLE Tracks.

Invest 96L tonight, most likely Tropical Storm Danny by tomorrow. Hard to say if they will upgrade it before first morning visible and the next set of model runs (using reverse psychology here, let's see how I do..) but "Danny" is looking way better tonight than he did for most of the day. As I said earlier, today would be the day to show us what Danny's got under his sleeves. Battling dry air, moving slowly, following a lead wave that absorbed some of the dry air meant for Danny. Tonight he has his groove back.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

That's a pretty solid core. 
Small green dots in the red.
Nice spin.

Models have weighed in and forecast Danny to be a Hurricane.
A small, tight hurricane. Possibly intense. Maybe not.
There are a lot of models.

From Tropical Tidbits

An ensemble forecast for the EURO
Note there are a lot of "thoughts" on track.
Generally WNW . . .

Does Danny go up and over the islands Donna style..
Or... through the islands as some feel he is more likely to do..

Really still a crap shoot.
His slow forward speed is really the fly in the ointment.

Track and intensity are reliant about forward speed.
Like Real Estate it's all about "location"

Keeping this short as I'm not 100% convinced....
.... there will not be an upgrade tonight.
Usually the NHC waits for the first morning visible when they are far out.

Dvorak can often be used to estimate strength.

bd_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Though it looks great at 10 PM... 
...usually they like to see consistency 
one sudden flash of intensity...

So stay tuned.
Danny seems ready for lift off.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 


Ps... note there's more strong waves coming off of Africa

Note this came to mind with the various spaghetti models.. 
..not the Presidential Race lol...


Post a Comment

<< Home