Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

TD 4 Forms. Hurricane Danny Forecast in 72 HRS As Per NHC Discussion. Islands In His Path

TD 4 Forms in the Central Atlantic

As the sun rises over the Atlantic...

Where does it go?

Regular Cone Below... 
Wind Field I felt is important.

The track down the road could be questionable.
By the time it arrives it could be a Hurricane.

These are the islands most likely to be affected by Hurricane Danny

As I said earlier this morning. The ASCAT pass over the Invest was spot on and nailed it perfectly.

NHC responded with an upgrade to Tropical Depression 4. The Discussion is excellent and gives their thoughts on the pros and cons affecting TD4 and his eventual upgrade to Tropical Storm Danny. Very detailed discussion. Things I feel are most important to remember I've highlighted in yellow.

Note they have it forecast to be going WNW..
(currently it's going W...)
With a forecast to turn more West...
Outflow to the South is important as it's keeping it strong.
Good banding is key to a strengthening stable storm.
SAL is a problem, but so far it's being "mixed out"
When shear increases as it nears the Carib.... me this could be a problem.

Once closer to the islands it needs to stay attached to it's energy source.
Energy source being tropical moisture.
Oranges good.
Blues not good.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

The Caribbean could use a strong Tropical Depression.
A wet Tropical Storm.
It's been dry there.
It doesn't need a strong hurricane.
So Intensity forecasting here is everything.

NHC Intensity Forecast is as follows.
Hurricane down the tropical road.

By 72 Hours.
Note is this occurs sooner...
...the forecast track would change.

Timing is everything.
Intensity affects track greatly.

Note they have it turning back West.
IF it intensified faster...might continue WNW or even NW.
Models disagree. For now this is the forecast track.

I'll talk on this more in depth later today.

There is also a Yellow Circle in the Atlantic.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

This loop shows the dry air TD 4 is battling but also shows the area of concern.

My thoughts are that the weaker this stays the further West it stays and note it is going West but forecast to be going WNW and then turn back to the West. If we don't see a WNW movement begin as the discussion indicated things could change. The sooner it makes a turn, usually if it becomes stronger, makes it more of an East Coast storm or out to sea catching an early season Cold Front. This year is running a few weeks ahead of CLIMO and fronts could become a factor in a week or so with Danny... especially if he is a Hurricane.

IF he stays low and keeps going towards the Caribbean than obviously South Florida has to pay attention. In fact, if it begins to climb in lattitude Miami and South Florida should still pay attention as the High has been persistent and if it weakens it can build back in. 

These are only thoughts.... very long term thoughts. There are some models that forecasted TD 4 to fall apart in the Caribbean, though for now... it seems the NHC has thrown out those models and gone with the ones keeping him a Hurricane. Or he becomes a hurricane, makes it into the Carib and doesn't enjoy a trip to Haiti... 

I'll give my thoughts and some thoughts of others I respect as well later today.

For now... sticking to the basics. The 4th system of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is here as a good old fashioned Tropical Depression that formed from an old fashioned Cape Verde Wave. The fact that this particular wave managed to fight off negative conditions early on with a strong punch from SAL make it a contender and a storm worth paying careful attention to... as often it's the ones that survive negative conditions early on that we remember the most.

Besos Bobbi
@Bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Model Spread is shown on Keep watching for any changes in the model projections and stay tuned. 

Song Bonus... Islands...


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