Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

DUSTY DANNY. Has SAL Taken a BiGGER Bite THAN Predicted?

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What's the matter with Danny?
And, who is his friend behind him?

I've outlined the darkest part of SAL closest to Danny.

I've sat through endless discussions over the years...
How the SAL was gonna get it.
Didn't have a chance...
Suddenly this year.. model support blessed Danny..
And forecasters have been playing down the SAL.


Effects of SAL on a struggling, developing Tropical Storm exist.
The water is warm, but not hot.

Just now on TV I heard a commercial say "presentation is everything"
Note that commercial is on TWC..

As for Presentation....
Danny looks mighty exhausted.

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I use FUNKTOP because...
...we were looking for possible Hot Towers to form.
Hot Towers are the sign of intensification going on.
Only thing I see intensifying is the wave behind Danny.

If this was a beauty contest.
Danny is getting the Talent Award... 
Not the Crown ....

Shear is low.
Water is warm.

You do the math.

Danny is also moving rather slow.
Not a speedy one...

Note I said last night on Twitter 
If Danny doesn't speed up the rear wave is gaining on him.

This morning.

Why I love this 12 Hour Black and White Unisys...

12 hours ago.. Danny was a contender.

NOW... struggling, exhausted .. below

Wave in back almost looks as if it is merging with Danny.

Put it in motion.

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What you cannot see on the black and white imagery is the SAL
But what you can see on the black and white Dvorak Image is trouble.

Danny currently is in trouble.
I say "currently" as the models still like it.
The models still stick with it.
Worth noting 18 hours ago many of those models.. lost it.
Models to misquote Shakespeare.. 

I'd say

"O, swear not by the models, the fickle models, the inconstant models, 
that change in 12 hours time, Lest that thy love prove likewise variable"

One more colorless loop

Once the sun comes up ... you can see the SAL choking off development.

I'll update this blog after the next advisory and discussion at 11 AM.

I'm dying to know how the discussion explains the current state of Danny.
vs the models and the forecast track ...based on the models.

Note at 11 Beven did a great job with his discussion.
He made it pretty clear.
2 scenarios.

Avila this moring sort of rambled.
Obviosuly doesn't like the storm's presentation.
But, waxed poetic on the models ..
(Wait til the next model run I say..)

Avila was all about the models.

The models last night DID to be fair show Danny hitting FL..
One model took it long term thorugh the Keys ..
Then doubled back on near Tampa..
Copied Donna lol and up the coast.

Models that long range are for entertainment purposes.

Heres's one model.

One image to look at....

Danny doesn't really intensify until.
He hits the Gulf stream

I'll talk on track and cones later today.
AFTER I see Danny look healthier on the DVORAK.

He's in trouble.
He may bounce back once past this current test.
But, only time will tell.

Do we believe the models or what we see.

What will be?

Check back soon...

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps Current 5 Day Track as per NHC and very random thought.
Could Danny and the wave behind him possibly merge?
I've seen it happen, transfer of energy.
Stronger one wins. 
Wacko solution but models like something.....


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