MAJOR HURRICANE DANNY .. Models didn't see it coming. NOT in NHC Forecast.

CAT 3 MAJOR HURRICANE DANNY

Visible from Outer Space.

Confirmed by Recon 115 MPH Sustained winds.

Posting this now and updating it later. Adding to it.

Old model info at this point needs to be thrown out.

None of the models saw this level of RI coming..

They hinted at some strengthening... 

NONE predicted a Cat 3.

Have to take that back...

One did show a strong Cat 2 but was dismissed.

Small Hurricanes are notoriously hard to forecast intensity.

They are too small for the models to grasp.

They work with grids and have parameters.

This is like your diamond ring falling into the sink.

An orange or lemon does not.

Danny is no longer a Car 2 Go . . . 

He's a FAST race car...

They make race cars small..they go faster.

NASCAR doesn't race MINI VANS.

Stay tuned for new Cone from NHC...

And new thoughts on how this could change the forecast.

Major Canes can make their own environment.

Granted he is small but he's getting bigger

And... a MAJOR CANE.

There was even some data that could support a Cat 4..

...but... data being evaluated as I write.

As we watch.

Danny is a CLASSIC Major Cane.

Head down ..punching his way into Dry AIR.

Note the streams of moisture moving towards him.

Note his band on the North side...

...is breaking down the dry air.

Juicing it up just a drop..

Where's the shear???

It's there ... but so not there yet..

Loop

How to watch a loop.

Relax your eyes, sort of fall into it

Note small changes in color

Moving SLOWLY WNW at 10 MPH Forward Speed

Lots of good shear maps here if you want to play WXR person.

For now Danny is still in a sweet spot.

Shear was forecast to weaken down the road.

Water is much warmer down the road though..

www.spaghettimodels.com

You couldn't do worse than the models as they didn't see this coming.

Maybe they have been good with the track... 

...but not intensity.

If you are that off on Intensity ... 

...track and timing will need revising.

Will it make the turn West?

Will it pull NW?

Will it continue WNW at 10 MPH forever?

He's small so he may not turn NW as fast as a wider Cat 3.

Only time will tell.

Going through data from the recon mission.

Looking at some other information available to me.

I'll be back.

Don't turn your back on Danny!!

Especially if you are in the Islands.

PR and VI

Florida

East Coast

Bahamas.

Not saying it will go there.

I am saying you need to pay attention ....

...to quick changes in a forecast!

Note new models show a possible Cat 4..

It's a whole new ball game folks.

Back soon with an update.

Besos Bobbi

Ps BIG questions. I've always been skeptical of the thru Haiti.

I've always thought it would clip the Islands.

Classic Cape Verde do go up and over the islands often.

We will know more soon... 

Keep watching.