Little Bitty Danny..Does Size Matter? Where Does He Go? Look Back at 2001 Major Hurricane Iris..

Quick 11 PM update. 

No real change in discussion or cone..just extrapolated a bit.

He continues to look good. 

200% better than last night..

Compare and contrast from yesterday.

As NHC didn't change their forecast package.

Going to update in the morning.

First visible. Recon info below.

https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/

Please continue to read as all info is relevant still.

IF Danny makes it past the shear.. 

He could tangle with quite a few locations.

Good Discussion by Jim Williams.

Always learn so much from him.

He knows Hurricanes.

Thanks!

Advisory 5 PM

 Note he is now 80 MPH

Intensified. WNW 10 MPH

As the sun sets on the Central Atlantic...

Hurricane Danny is the main attraction.

Doesn't look that small, it's inner core is small.

I added a yellow line to the NHC cone to extrapolate the path.

AND... to remind you it can take the lower half of the cone.

Or it can take the higher half of the cone.

Don't look at the center of the cone.

Danny could go S of Haiti as other storms have and find it's groove.

It could clip PR and VI area. Many Florida & Carolina Canes do.

It could go straight across the middle.

If Danny is a small, weak hurricane battling shear going into the islands...

...then he might die or play dead like he did last night.

IF Danny is a stronger hurricane he could pull further north also missing Haiti.

I hate that as soon as a hurricane forms meteorologists try to kill it off.

They scream about Haiti as if it is.. Godzilla..

Haiti didn't destroy Hurricane Georges.

Key West remembers that...

Nuff Said

Too soon to say which path he takes but everyone should watch.

Just because he is small he could be a memorable hurricane.

I'll explain that below when talking on Hurricane Iris.

Note how short Danny is compared to his cast mates at a reunion.

In the end...he went on to great fame.

Back to the NHC and their thoughts.

Discussion is basically an update of the previous one at 11 AM.

Stewart does explain the unique problems of forecasting a small Cane.

He says it well.

Impt points in yellow above.

Note they do not intensify Danny beyond 85 MPH.

They didn't expect him to he Hurricane Danny at 5 AM.

So, it shows how difficult a small Cane is to forecast.

My thoughts on Danny.

You can see from the loop above that Danny has a large pocket of moisture (light blue) around the small, red inner core. He is plugging West or WNW officially. To his immediate NE is convection connected with Invest 97L that may or may not become Erika. If that storm forms it could have a strong influence on Danny and I say "could" as very little is a given when forecasting Danny. A trough is forecast to set up over Florida in the short term and that will put lower pressures over Florida. Should Danny take the top side of the NHC Cone... that's something to think about.

Small hurricanes have their own unique attributes. They are hard to forecast as models do not always grab onto them properly. When they do they don't always do a good job with intensity. Pretend you are a giant and you are told to open a little jar of pimentos. Or perhaps you're a basketball player with the NBA who doesn't want to ride home from a party in a Car 2 Go ....

They spin up fast.

They play dead often.

They spin back up fast.

Each is different.

I also want to point out something else about size.

Andrew, though not this small, was a small and compact hurricane.

Comparisons were done to Floyd.

The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane was HUGE and wet.

Andrew was small and dry.

Often small storms are drier than huge storms.

It would be nice for the islands to get some rain from Danny.

They are in a drought for a reason ..

One of those reasons is the waves are turning before the islands.

Some would factor El Nino into it.

Bryan Norcross just mentioned this on TWC

Dry air has plagued the Caribbean all year.

Either way... time will tell.

Some forecast Danny to go poof.. die... 

Other models keep him alive.

As models are difficult at forecasting for small storms.

I'm watching the storm itself.

Taking it day by day.

It's still far away from land.

No watches or warnings up.

7 Day Loop from NWS shows a double barrel High over Florida

In 7 Days... there's no High. 

There's a LOW

That front will fizzle over N Florida.

It will hang there over Tampa as trofs have all summer.

Hurricanes go towards lows.

Hopefully they are right and Danny doesn't survive...

Because the door would be open and inviting for a storm.

Note even the models that show Danny dying show his moisture near FL.

This is a random thought.

What if Danny takes the N track.

Up over the islands.

What IF...Danny keeps trying to come back.

Like last night...

And over the very warm waters of the Gulfstream...

IF he comes back fast..as storms have done in the past.

We would have a home grown mess. 

Just a messy random thought...not a forecast.

Keep watching.. it's not over til it's over!

Looking around the basin tonight...

Let's look at Invest 97L in the Atlantic.

This could be a messy, loopy storm or ..go out to sea.

Eventually it will go out to sea...but when is the question?

If it forms & loops just East of Jax...

I'm sure it could have an affect on Danny.

Further East is another beautiful CV wave.

Nice wave. Came spinning off of Africa.

I don't think I have to tell you ...

...it will go West..for now.

Plenty of time to watch it.

But note some models show it moving fast..

...sneaking up on us behind Danny!

Tonight's Lesson in Hurricane History.

Major Hurricane Iris in 2001 was a small hurricane.

Let's take a look at Iris.

Iris graphics:

There was thoughts it would head towards Jamaica, Cuba..

Look at another discussion.

Iris was no longer a weak, poorly defined tropical depression.

What was the end game with Iris?

Iris did not get destroyed by Haiti or Cuba.

She headed West... even South of West

She was one of the most destructive hurricanes on record ...

...in that part of the world.

Nuff Said...

Back to Danny.

I'm less worried on track right now than intensity.

Where is he going?

Hmnnnn.  

Depending on how fast Danny moves... 

A stronger Danny would want to go more to the North.

Note the flow pulling up into the Low over Great Lakes.

Note the pull of the convection to it's NE..

Question of the day is how did a minuscule system..

...shove all that SAL out of it's way?

Keep watching.

An interesting hurricane.

A true Cape Verde Storm.

Please read my previous blog about the Hebert Box.

Danny may go through the Hebert Box.

If so residents of South Florida need to pay close attention.

NHC is indicating he won't survive the trip..

Recon goes into tomorrow.

Yes Danny is small.

He looked DEAD last night.

I hate storms that play possum..

Why? Andrew....

Know there are way more waves coming off of Africa..

Danny will have a tough time in the near future.

He had a tough time last night.

Stay tuned. 

Check back.

Follow on Twitter for real time thoughts.

@bobbistorm 

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The season is only beginning.

It's not even September.

Stay tuned...

Besos Bobbi

Ps enjoy the song for he Little Bitty Hurricane Danny