Cat 2 Danny WAS Stronger than 5 AM NHC Advisory. Prepares for His Battle with Shear. IF He Survives... Warm Water Awaits Danny. Recon ...

CAT 2 At 11 AM

Updated Info...

Winds 105 MPH

WNW 10 MPH Forward Speed

Category 2 Hurricane Danny is beautiful.

Cat 2 hurricanes usually are the most photogenic storms.

They possess beautiful eyes, good structure and long banding features.

Motion shows his spin

Oddly on WV Loop it looks as if he is pushing the dry air away.

A trick he may have learned running around with SAL

Great discussion by Beven at 11 AM.

Solid, descriptive, informative and honest.

Please read the discussion. 

Explains a lot. Tells it like it is.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/211438.shtml

As I said earlier this morning he was definitely stronger.

Note again mini cyclones are hard to forecast.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/inez1966.html

I've thought on it but... it's an October storm.

Similarities exist. Note track...small size.

Note similarity of current forecast track at 11 AM

Great picture from www.flhurricane.com below.

Remember..when you are off on Intensify forecasting.

And, the NHC forecast did not call for a 105 MPH Cane.

Then you are off on other things.

Everything is related.

Could he strengthen? Maybe.

Could he become a MAJOR Hurricane.

Cat 3? Very possibly. Don't be surprised if so...

NHC keeps it at 105 MPH.

If they are wrong... we need to rethink other parts of the forecast.

Follow me on Twitter for real time updates

@Bobbistorm.

I'll update this afternoon with information from recon.

And, more discussion around the web on where Danny might go..

IF and when he survives the dry air and shear.

Keep reading, important information below .....

......written just before 11 AM.

Doesn't get prettier than that...still out at sea.

May be bulking up for it's date with destiny.

* * * * * * 

Sunrise over Danny . . .

In Motion:

NHC at 5 AM:

85 MPH

(...looks stronger to me...)

Good morning Danny. Beautiful sunrise picture. Deep eye, nice banding. Will this be as good as he gets? Many forecasters are writing his obituary. "KILLED BY SHEAR" "RAN INTO A WALL OF SHEAR... Video at 5"  Other forecasters are holding out the possibilities for him to make it past the shear and past the islands. IF he gets past the islands, where would he go? That to me is a bigger question than the shear. He will struggle with the shear. He will give it up the shear or he will play possum and come back when he gets into the warmer water and lighter shear past PR.

In Color:

Seems to have picked up some bulk.

Not mentioned in discussion.

Mentioned online by top line professional mets.

Dvorak Image.

NHC Discussion pretty much 2nd verse same as the 1st.

It can basically be put into Cliff Notes

"Waiting on Recon"

As the eye is so small..are we sure the buoy didn't miss it?

I'd have gone with Dvorak presentation.

Just saying.

And recon is not going INTO Danny.

Recon is sampling the air around Danny

The shear, the dry air... then it will get around to Danny.

Note discussion implies otherwise.

You can follow this on www.hurricanecity.com 

Last paragraph:

Sunrise Over Recon...

Truth is only time will tell... This is the story of every Hurricane. I can't remember one hurricane that took off from the Cape Verde Islands, sailed west building into a Category 5 at 30 W and hauled like a trucker until he slammed into the islands and kept going all the way to Canada. Many have made that trek but ALL have had at some time some problem. Got a news flash for you. The players are always the same.

SHEAR
Shear from a TUTT
Shear from an ULL that blew it up and then killed it.
Shear at the entrance to the Caribbean (Graveyard of tropical cyclones zone)
SAL
Very dry air.
Lower than usual water temperatures.
Upwelling from a previous storm (Danny doesn't have to deal with that one...)
Strong headwinds....also known as shear.
TROF
Poor internal structure... started from day one got worse with time.
Detached from the ITCZ
HAITI!!!
Cuba...

Danny has been riding a dangerous line since the start

Riding on the edge of dry air... 

The list goes on and on. But, on TWC and some local forecasters on air would make you believe there is something unusual about this battle Danny will have to do later today with shear. It's not new. It's what all hurricanes go through. Many fall apart or fall over as they are poorly aligned.

Some hurricanes make it past these obstacles and make it into the history books.
Others make it onto land where they crawl across Haiti and rain themselves out over Cuba.
Most tropical waves never make it to hurricane strength and rain themselves out on the plains of the US watering our crops and making that region a great bread basket... God Bless the USA!

Some never become Invests. Some never get a designation on the NRL site :(
Some never get a name and go down on the history books as TD3...
Some become Tropical Storms but never see the H .. always a bridesmaid never a bride :(
Some become Hurricanes .... some go onto become Major Hurricanes.
Some Major Hurricanes dance far out in the ocean and never hit land... never remembered.
Some become famous for being so small...like Iris or Danny.

This is the way of the tropical world. So when some forecaster predicts death in 12 hours by a wall of shear remember...this is what hurricanes have to deal with at some point in their lives. And, if they survive they may find less shear and warmer water.

Andrew made it past it's poor days when it barely hung on...
Debby did not.

A good on air forecaster tells it like it is. They give the positives, the negatives, the possibilities and the probabilities...they tell it like it is.

In slower days I was writing about Women in Meteorology. So, let's look at Lissette Gonzalez.

Nice. To the point. No hype. 

Here's the track, motion and islands in it's path.

On air she can talk on the various problems Danny may have getting there..

Neat, sweet Tweet. Factual. Honest.

Other meteorologists have egos bigger than Godzilla.

They feel they must kill it off or hype landfall.

Hype goes both ways.

Danny does have a wall of shear there.

Note models show shear lightening.

Models for shear are far from perfect.

Shear moves, oozes, grooves and loses it sometimes.

In order to get to the area where shear is lighter..

It has to go through the shear.

Note the water is warmer north of the shear.

IF it makes it past the shear.

Sometimes they adjust their track and tack a different track.

Another view on the Water Vapor

My problem with the dangers of Dry Air is Danny does dry air well.

This picture below is from days ago. 8/17 Monday

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2015/08/invest96l

-spinning-west-towards-name.html

My question is not how Danny will deal with dry air.

My question is how the heck did Danny make it here.

He has been fighting dry air and SAL from the start.

Shear .... we'll have to see how Danny does.

I'm not going to forecast his death..

If I was going to do that I would have done in Wednesday Night.

I'm not going to forecast he slams into somewhere as a Cat 3.

Time will tell.

Only thing he is slamming into right now ...is more dry air and shear.

Oh and he's moving slow... so not slamming... exactly.

Timing is everything, remember that.

Slow storms are harder to forecast.

Models don't aways verify.

Sometimes they miss their moment of opportunity.

Or... their enemy fades away.

Cold front dies out or moves too fast.

Always an issue getting the timing right in a forecast.

Close up he is beautiful.

A note on his slow forward movement.

It's all connected with steering currents.

In Raleigh they are pointing out the front is slow moving.

Slow moving...slower than originally forecast.

Danny is moving WNW at 10 MPH

As for me I was up often last night.

Kept checking the loops. Spaghetti Models makes it easy.

A lot of us were.

Cantore mentioned on air he was.

Obviously Mike was..

This is what we do.

This is what I do.

Danny does what he does...

Danny battles dry air, shear and negative press.

Will he survive?

Can't say just yet.

Only Danny can say.

I can say IF he survives and gets past the shear..

He hits WARM WATER.

Small hurricanes can flare up fast.

Cleo was a small hurricane.

She hit Haiti.. wobbled across Cuba.

Forecasters insisted Cuba's high mountains would deliver..

....the final punch.

She came off of Cuba a meager Tropical Storm 

After having been a Cat 4 Hurricane.

She hit the hot water of the Florida Straits.

Made landfall in Miami as a Category 2 Hurricane.

Let's look at that small area.. 

Shear can kill or damage a hurricane.

Warm Water can feed it, fuel it... intensify it fast.

Damage in Miami...

I woke up this morning just before 5 AM.

Checked the loops. 

Played on www.crownweather.com NICE...

Read the 5 AM Advisory...not so thrilled.

Looks stronger, feel like it was just a replay of 11 PM.

11 PM was a replay of 5 PM.

This is why people love to read discussion on www.crownweather.com

To listen to Jim Williams update on www.hurricanecity.com

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARN-Kqq7m3g&feature=youtu.be

To read through messages boards and check Twitter.

I'll update this blog later today.

After the recon mission into the wall of shear..

After Danny has done his thing.

I'll be back but last thought.

While this is totally true.

It's important to remember weather is locational.

In Miami it rains on one side of the street...

...and not the other. 

Weather is a lot like surgery.

It's minor surgery when it's happening to someone else.

It's major surgery when it's happening to you.

If it hits Barbuda but not Antigua.

Barbuda had a hurricane.

Antigua did not.

In NY today there was localized flooding.

If this is your street...

...you don't want to hear people 10 miles away saying

"It didn't rain by me!!"

Yes it's a small hurricane.

If it has your name written on it...

It's a big hurricane.

Miami got slammed by Katrina.

FEMA said it was nothing compared to Nola.

True...but if there was a ficus tree on your house...

....that didn't have power for 10 days in Miami..

Katrina was a big hurricane for Miami... 

It's all a matter of perspective.

To me...

Danny looks beautiful right now.

Models

Map

Besos Bobbi

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Be back later with an update.

I'll talk about Invest 97L and the yellow circles off of Africa

In honor of the fearless men in their flying machine ;)