Exit Erika, Enter Fred. Hurricane Warnings UP for Cape Verde Islands. . Where Did the Models Go Wrong?

That's Tropical Storm Fred... 

Eye Like Feature.. 

Hurricane Warnings up.

New Storm

Old Storm

Reminds me of that old rhyme..

Red Fish, Blue Fish

This is for real. A Hurricane Warning for CV Islands

50 MPH and intensifying

I know Fred is far away.. but he's out there 

Note FRED off the West Coast of Africa.. 

Headed towards Cape Verde Islands

The yellow IS the Cape Verde Islands.

Fred could die out as a Fish Storm..

...and still have made landfall. 

Go figure......

...or follow his siblings Danny and Erika West..

Note the remnants of Erika have the potential...

...for flooding and severe weather over South Florida.

There are Flood Watches up...
Possibility of waterspouts.
Heavy Lightning..

Check out this site.
http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=30
It's on www.spaghettimodels.com bottom left if u lose it.
It's near the top on the left...great site. Thanks Mike..

Note lightning associated with Erika's remains.

Also note off the Carolina coast is an area being watched.

Strong weather.. 

Watch if a purple circle goes up there..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

If you live in the Florida ... 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/

Check that link above often or your local weather source.
Erika's remains and her Troffy Boyfriend are doing the Cone.
Sort of like Bonnie and Clyde out for fun on a Sunday afternoon.

Just because Erika is kaput.. 

.....know the weather associated with her remnants is firing up

I want to discuss somethings here regarding Tropical Storm Erika. Check out the video at the bottom of today's blog as to possible discussion on Grace forming in the Atlantic. It's just talk, whispers in the wind, surfers looking for a good ride but it's a good read, great video of storms last night off the coast and a fun listen.

First and foremost Erika killed more than 20 people and according to some sources more than 30... people are still missing. Wait a day or two for the final total and say prayers for the families and loved ones of the people who died in this Tropical Storm. Read the discussion below from a website in the Caribbean.

So Miami may get heavy storms.

Some people in Miami may know someone who died in Dominica.

Give thanks the storm never made it past Hispaniola.

On that I'll quote my brother who follows the tropics from Greece.

Well said. 

The usual local speed bump being Hispaniola.

And, I'll add in what Brad Panovitch a forecaster in NC said..

I spoke a lot on the warm water of the FL Straits and Bahamas.

But you gotta have a closed center.. otherwise you have a tropical wave.

Yes the NHC has chances of it reforming on their main map...

Not likely. That trough across the state is strong.

Sucking up Erika's moisture too!

 30% Yellow Circle over Erika's remains by NHC

Oh and to answer the question people are asking..

There was great discussion tonight on www.hurricanecity.com on their Tropical Update with Jim Williams and Bill Phillips. A great post storm wrap up of what went wrong with the models and Erika. The NHC goes back and writes up post storm discussion, we do too at Hurricane City.

Worth mentioning that Jim mentioned what I have thought on and that is that Erika could have been a Dress Rehearsal for a real hurricane later this season. And, as Bill Phillips mentioned more hurricanes hit Florida in October than any other time. Very true... in a few weeks... we could be dealing with a real contender. I hope the next threatening storm has better modeling than Erika did. The EURO really blew it with this storm and though it always stayed inside the 5 Day Cone... the EURO and others were bouncing all over the place with landfalls. Seems the only place sadly not mentioned was Dominica that wasn't really in the cone. But.. it got hit with the convection associated with but not wrapped around the center of Erika. Can we please retire this name now?

Check out Jim's site, he should have a link up soon. I called in and we spoke, not as much fun on the phone as in person but great weather friend to shoot the breeze with and discuss hurricanes. Enjoy the banter between Bill and him complaining about TWC coverage of Erika and how badly the models analyzed her and the problems the NHC had forecasting for a storm that would not bother reading her own model discussion.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/subscribe.htm
Subscribe or just donate. Jim has a regular day job and very hard one that he does well out in the Florida sun most of the day. He may consider Hurricane City is hobby but it is what he is known for and it costs a lot to run it and keep it going. One of the best original Hurricane sites online. I was telling someone the other day when he first started the site he wanted it to be an educational tool for people to learn about hurricanes. That's why he has so many links to historic storms, information on the Hebert Box and pretty much anything relevant to Hurricanes.  Mike's site is tropical but he also covers winter storms at www.spaghettimodels.com and Mike also has a day job, does other things while maintaining Spaghetti Models. There are other sites like www.flhurricane.com still around from the late 1990s their focus is on Florida Hurricanes (duh) and they are a wonderful asset and good friends. www.crownweather.com also goes back... we've been friends for a long time in retrospect.. following the weather online over time.

Some links you may have missed not on the main page.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/cities.htm
http://www.hurricanecity.com/elnino.htm
http://www.hurricanecity.com/howbig.htm

Someone who does not have the time or money to go back to college and study tropical meteorology but wants to learn more can learn so much from just looking through some of the "products" on Hurricane City. http://www.hurricanecity.com/howbig.htm Plus the message board www.canetalk.com where I live during the Hurricane Season often. I'm on flhurricane.com under the name LoisCane... cause I was hiding there ;) long story but when the tropics come alive and threaten Florida follow the discussion with Mike, Ed and Clark on the message board.

Back to Erika and how badly the models handled her..

I'm sure in the off season many will review the model data that was a total disconnect with Erika and perhaps we'll have an answer one day. This isn't the first time the models have poorly handled a shallow, weak Tropical Storm with an IFFY center with it's center not aligned over it's convection. The debacle that was Hurricane Debby lives in our memories. Granted she was a stronger storm than Erika, but she was tilted and not well stacked. While discussion spoke of distant landfall in South Florida and the media Nationwide as well as locally ramped up on air live "Breaking News" Updates, Debby hit negative conditions...as well as Hispaniola ..and went poof.

Look familiar? 

Anyone who complains anyone mentioned that storm... 

... might not remember what a debacle it was... 

The models handled it terribly.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072000_Debby.pdf 

As it has happened before. It will happen again until we figure out why models have such a poor time dealing with systems like this one. Note they also had problems with Danny, as Danny was a shallow, small system. Models didn't even see Danny forming as he was so small

Hopefully when the BIG ONE comes the models will do a better job and people won't discount the discussion as "oh well Erika died, this one will too.. it's all hype"

I mentioned many times that Erika was TILTED and Levi Cowan went into great detail on his videos at www.tropicaltidbits.com but it's a hard concept to grasp... in the same way that the models had problems with Erika.

Speaking of the next system . . .

It's moving NW towards the Cape Verde Islands.

No I did not make that up.

The Cape Verde Islands may be hit by a Cape Verde Storm.

Happens, rarely ... but happens they upgrade this far out.

In this case he is making landfall...

Okay let's look at Fred in a loop.

Discussion is as follows.
1st Discussion from last night.
Next discussion from this morning on the upgrade.
Again I discuss possibilities here in the tropics.
Sometimes they develop, other times not.
99L became Tropical Storm Fred

Note I put the red arrows on Invest 99L Discussion.

Fred Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/300847.shtml

Note the comment "small CDO" 

4th Atlantic TS to form East of 19W Longitude.

Cape Verde Year...go figure.

Aren't you happy they are small and poorly formed.

And SAL is out there playing defense.

or 

 We will talk more on this storm down the line..
Feel free to check him out on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
He has his own website there ;)

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

Lots of models there and other views of ... Fred...

For those people who still want to watch Erika Reruns.. 

You can see all the players here.

Note the chance for strong, severe weather.

Frontal boundary in the GOM is going RED tonight.

Moisture from what is left of Erika is streaming North towards it.

I wonder if the area South of Cuba would get it's own name...
Just a random thought in the wind...

Radar image from last night..WILD lightning storm formed
My son sent me video from FIU where he was working late.
Purple skies lit up by nonstop lightning
He said the drive home looked like inside a club with strobe lights...

I circled "ERIKA" in yellow.

There is a twist on the radar.

Note the Flood Watch for ALL of S FL thru Sunday Night.

Disc online...

CBS in Miami was showing the twist...

Trust me the trof has swallowed Erika...

Well for now.. stay tuned.

He might spit her out.. 

You never know..

The NHC does give this area a 30% chance of reforming.

In the next 5 days...so keep watching. 

Would be a long shot but happens.

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/cities/miami.htm

Note this rain event is going to be prolonged.

The trough isn't going anywhere...

...and neither is what's left of Erika..

Though I may add what's left of her caboose is South of Cuba.

Meandering around the Caribbean.. missing it's other half..

Interesting old wave flaring up and well... 

.....we need to remember to watch for Close In systems.

Is the G storm forming?
Okay it's Grace not Gloria but... love Gloria..



Listen and wonder....great video of stormy beach ;)

As for storms so far away ...

..I'll be back to discuss "Fred" some more later.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter...
thoughts in real time...