Updated! Erika Pounded Dominica Wtih DEADLY Torrential Rains. Center May Be Reforming.. Messy Erika Makes a Tricky Forecast for the NHC and the SE Coast.. 2 Faces of Erika Making Forecasters Bewitched, Bothered and Bewildered

UPDATED
At 11 PM
More of the Same.
45 MPH
West @ 17 MPH

Cone moved on up the coast...

San Juan NWS reported strong winds in VI

If you are in the 3 Day Cone Prepare NOW.

If you are in the 5 PM Cone...Think on what you might do!

Note the Georgia Coastline is in the Cone.

Savannah, GA

Parts of SC already in the cone.

Will update in the morning early.

Nothing much has changed.

More of the same.

Killer Tropical Storm Erika Moving Along
Cone says towards FL and beyond.

I say Killer Storm as it has already killed 4 people in Dominica.
The death toll may climb are more are missing.
Very sad stories coming out of there

As Miami is in the 3 Day Cone.
It's time to prepare and start taking this slowly.
It is currently forecast to move slowly.
You can see from the loop above she is nearing...
.... the edge of the High to her North.

5 Day Cone at 5 PM
You can go back and compare how little it was changed at 11 PM.

Compare and contrast to the map below from 11 AM.

Basically an extrapolation.

GFS & EURO both head towards Florida.

After that... all bets are off.

And, I mean that with regard to Intensity Forecast.

11 AM Cone

Special Note to SE FL and Miami People

You are NOW in the 3 Day Cone... Start preparing just in case...

Everything depends on intensity.

The water in the tropics is hot.

Tropics being Bahamas and Florida Straits.

Brad Panovich knows weather.

He is in NC and he is watching carefully for his viewers.

It's very probable that after Florida deals with Erika

NC or SC may also deal with it...and Georgia.

Hurricanes do this sometimes.

Another D storm did this named David.

That track would be a good analog storm.

So would another..

Ernesto also did Dominica

As did David...

They both continued on much as Erika may do.

As for Erika right now.

She is a killer tropical storm.

People should spend less time criticizing her "form" 

And worry more about her potential.

Another track map I want to leave you with is the Canadian.

They are very reliable in ways and detailed.

Note the wind speeds also listed on their map.

More details.

Note... IF Erika gets over HOT water..

She could ramp up fast..

Like a NASCAR car...

Not the family van.

But time will tell on that one.

Stay tuned.

If you are in PR...

Take this storm seriously.

She is filled with a lot of rain.

Too much to handle at one time.

This is not an IF but a for sure.

And there is another small wave behind her.

Another coming off of Africa.

And she is now where the last few waves were.

Where Danny went...

This is the pattern.

Florida this could be the Big One.

Or.....it could be a rehearsal for the Next One...

She's not pretty or perfect.

But she has already left a foot of rain on Dominica

Taken the life of 4 people..

It's that simple.

Yes she is looks a bit disorganized ..

Google Dominica and floods and Erika..

They don't care much about her condition...

They are dealing with tropical conditions there.

And...the trend may be to pull the track back to the West...

....as long as Erika is "weak" as weak storms go West.

Even if models pull right.

A hard call for the NHC.

If the trof is still there over South Florida

(note its raining currently)

Erika may find try to get there one way or the other.

The High may build in stop her from going out to sea.

Or something else migh happen . 

Depending on timing... 

She may get there and then stall and crawl up the coastline.

Across the track to Tampa is a possibility.. low but there.

 Erika close up

See the green come and go on the loop.

Green means Erika is developing a mean streak.

Foreshadows intensification bursts.

But....is the center relocating under her strongest convection?

Note at the beginning of the loop there is a small red dot to the W 

That early red dot that disappears is her actual circulation center..

...or was...

Models need a center starting spot.

If the starting point is wrong... models are wrong.

Garbage in..garbage out.

Newest models turned a bit to the right.
And to the left.
They spell out FLORIDA in NEON LIGHTS

Hard to even see the outline of Florida.

Models are divide down the road.
Some go into the GOM
Most see a stronger Hurricane and go to the right.

Spaghetti Models.

Dvorak Loop.

Defines intensity...

* * *

The rest of this blog tries in an entertaining way...
To explain the problems of a tropical system with 2 centers.
There is one main center.
But...there sometimes are mid level circulations.
They sometimes flare up near convection removed from the storm.

Butterflies are 3 dimensional. So are storms.

They are not a flat image.

They have upper level outflow.

They have a lower level center.. 

Sometimes they have a mid level circulation :(

The slightest change in their structure...

...can be extrapolted down the road in big ways

http://fractalfoundation.org/resources/what-is-chaos-theory/

Recon is in Erika...

They are gathering data.

It's been obvious that Erika may be trying to reform under the convection.

If so... the track will change.

And she may have a chance to intensify.

So many questions...

2 in particular..

Which is the true final center of Erika?

Let me start off here with discussion on Erika and Dominica.

She is currently dumping huge amounts of rain on Dominica.

The circulation may be elsewhere...but her "weather mass" 

Erika is drenching Dominica with deadly floods.

The islands want rain but they do not want floods.

Floods can kill.

People are missing.

Unconfirmed reports of possible deaths from floods.

9 inches of rain... 

And it's still raining.

Erika is acting like a wet Tropical Storm

Note all the judgementalness on Erika's appearance...

...is not important in Dominica where people may be dying in floods.

NHC DISCUSSION:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/271457.shtml?

Main point..they are talking on the center being reformed to the South.. 

I said this the other day. 

A great site for storms that threaten the islands.

www.stormcarib.com

(okay we can also see I like Bohemian style clothes and Sak purses....)

Great discussion on this site. 

Speaking of great discussion.

www.crownweather.com has good discussion.

Rob and I go back more years than I want to admit to. A group of us have been online discussing storms long enough for me to see some of the attend college and get jobs in high places. This is what he said to me today when I asked his thoughts on the biggest concern regarding Erika's uncertain future track. “Erika could find itself in a very favorable environment and strengthen into a intense hurricane as it potentially crawls near the coast between FL & NC...”

Yes that is the biggest problem with telling people what will happen is that we aren't sure. Some models pulled to the left this morning, others hung right. As Rob points out in his discussion this storm could affect a large swath of heavily populated real estate along the SE coast. This discussion was based on the earlier model tracks. He and everyone else will update with newer cones and new model out put.

If you wonder what I do... I wake up and peek at Erika on my cell phone. I read a bit on Twitter and try to catch up on what happened while I was sleeping. Yes, my friends from AOL have migrated over to Twitter. Lord knows what is next? Then I put on TV... local if I want to see how much NC is worried on Erika or TWC for the global perspective.

When home in Miami I put on WSVN my go to weather source for Miami weather info is:
http://www.wsvn.com/

Then I shower, have coffee..sometimes I drink some Nespresso in the shower.. the combined effect of warm water beating down on me while sipping Nespresso (which I pretend is cafecito from my favorite place on South Beach) is heaven. And, I get ideas on how I am going to try to explain the many faces of Erika to my readers. The discussion below came to me in the shower. So...thank the shower and thank the Nespresso and my messy writer's mind.

Erika is a multi-dimensional problem. I jokingly wrote the other day "What do you do about a problem like Danny" and you can say the same for Erika.

Some tropical systems are straight forward, their path carved in stone by a strong High Pressure system, low shear and warm water. A cold front begins to move SE slowly but steadily, like the one before him, forecast to move off the Carolina coast. The strong, spinning, intense Hurricane feels the pull of the North Star and pulls away from it's WNW track towards the Cold Front with the Edge and the rest is history. They are off to see Bermuda ...or just fly by like a meteorological drone taking beautiful pictures they send back to Snapchat.... and they are gone faster than a Snapchap picture. Okay, some obsessed meteorologists to a screen shot so they can save the memory but they are gone before you know it.

Other tropical cyclones like Erika (and Danny ..same genes) are complicated and they often show up when the weather pattern up stream is equally complicated. The cold fronts are not so reliable, they drag a bit over North Carolina. They hang over the coast by OBX like a glider circling the shoreline. A "now I see you now I don't" Upper Level Low sets up over the Bahamas refusing to do South Beach but watching it with binoculars. The shear is there, but it can't quite kill Erika off.

TV shows are often copied from popular movies. Bewitched, a popular comedy in the 1960s, was inspired by the movie Bell, Book and Candle a popular play on Broadway turned into a movie with the beautiful Kim Novak and the befuddled James Stewart.  How does a mortal man deal with a beautiful witch who has secret powers over his heart?

1958

1964 

Darren had to often hang on for his life...

He had Aunt Clara a character.

There were some changes made

Elsa Lanchester played Gillian's Aunt Queenie

In the TV show Maion Lorne played Aunt Clara.

Rather than have a strange older witch down the block..

..played in the movie by the awesome Hermine Gingold..

Darren had a Mother-In-Law named Endora

Hmmmm look similar don't hey?

Different but similar.

Hurricanes are like that.

Mother Nature repeats but throws a curve ball often.

A hurricane looks like a previous one.

But....it has it's own unique difference.

An example would be what was just mentioned on TWC

An interview with an expert in Dominica ...

...where Tropical Storm Erika is dumping rain.

He said it reminds him in ways of both Dean and Ophelia.

Note both storms hit that area surprisingly bad.

But took different tracks afterwards.

Dean went West... 

Ophelia went North....

Dominica getting flooding rains from Erika.

But where will Erika go?

This is a problem as Erika seems to have 2 faces or 2 centers.

I wrote about this with Isaac.

I'll leave the link to that post at the bottom.

Often LARGE Tropical Storms are messy inside.

They have what seems like two centers.

The true center that is often lacking... 

And a possibly Mid Level center kicking up at night with convection.

Erika is a night girl. Usually looks better at night.

Erika Slezak was the star of One Life to Live.

A Soap Opera of a psychological nature..

loosely based on the movie 3 Faces of Eve.

Erika (note the spelling like our storm..hmnn)

Joanne Woodward from 3 Faces of Eve.

1957

One Life to Live aka OLTL 1968

Hmnnn.... 

Okay so you get the idea.

Writers have their muses.

Sometimes their muse is an old favorite movie.

"It Happened One Night"

"Moon River"

"It's a Wonderful Life" 

Other times it's someone they are stalking..

They write a character but they change a few details.

The busty brunette becomes a long legged blond.

A Southern accent can become a French accent.

They take an idea and run with it.

Much like Erika is trying to take her convection and run with it.

Some tropical storms like EARL did that.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL051998_Earl.pdf

Earl made Erika look really pretty.

Sorry Earl but true...

Another problematic forecast was Irene.

She was forecast to affect the West Coast of Florida early on.

But, Irene really wanted to do Miami.

I never saw so much rain...

Rain was so intense it was some how coming in..

...between the terrazzo floor and the walls.

My make believe daughter Hanna screamed, 

"MA! Come here you got to see this. Bring towels!!"

My son walked home from work...from the bus stop... 

....in almost knee deep water and Levi is tall.

There were no warnings up for Miami.

Employers refused to let employees leave.

The Mayor BEGGED on air employers to let people go...

It was a mess.

Later the NHC admitted that while their forecast was right..

And the center of circulation went where they said..

The "weather mass" slipped NE.

Weather people knew this was happening.

The "General Public" did not.

The track...

The radar loop... shows Miami getting it.

Note... there are many reasons why.

The bottom line is ... a tricky forecast...

...for a tricky storm named Irene.

Let's put it this way. By day... Dawn is a mild, mannered, helpful librarian. She does her job, works hard and stays between the lines. Yes, men may fantasize about her, but she barely notices. She's like the girl next door with great brains and a wonderful smile. By night, DANI goes online and finds herself in odd situations with strangers. She goes out to get away from strange chat rooms and finds herself in a bar with a mysterious strangers. She wears make up, short skirts and lets her hair down. In the morning, back at the library, she's prim, proper and busy weeding and seeding the book collection. 

Will DANI run off with the mysterious stranger who has stolen her heart? 

Or will Dawn win out and keep her good government job and work on her retirement bonus?

Only time will tell...

Stay tuned.

Erika is a tropical drama being played out before your eyes.

She may stay weak, dump a lot of rain on the islands ....

...or do the predictable thing.

She may get up into an area of warm water and surprise us all.

She could end up in the Bahamas, close to South Florida...

Intensely interested in the mysterious stranger who studies the Gulfstream

Or she may after she dances a while down there...

...bolt off for North Carolina..

...or South Carolina.

She is a true Cape Verde Storm.

Lots of options. 

Long tracker.

Long hours all night 

Again if you live in the 5 Day Cone..

Review your hurricane plans.

Once you are in the 3 Day Cone...

Start shopping.

Remember you need a hand operated can opener.

Matches.. Lighter

Candles. Flashlights.

Batteries...yes still.

Extra diapers or Rx 

Buy crayons ....trust me.

Get money $$$ out of the ATM

(fast before others do and it's gone)

GAS UP

Check the www.nhc.noaa.gov often

5AM, 11AM, 5PM, 11PM...

The CONE is an indication you need to watch the storm.

Especially if you are in the 4 to 5 day part of the Cone.

Obviously the New Times prefers wine and beer..

May I suggest Water

When I was little they spoke on canned milk..

May I suggest canned espresso. 

If you are a coffee person... you will thank me!

Even warm Coke is heaven when you gotta have one ..

...and the power goes off... 

I'd have killed for one after Hurricane Andrew

As for the wonderful men at the National Hurricane Center

And AOML HRD ...

They have a tricky job right now for a tricky storm.

What's a forecaster to do?

I know I'll be updating any late breaking news changes..

...at the top of this blog throughout the day.

Stay tuned...

Besos BobbiStorm.

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps.. I have a confession. Sometimes I wake up in the middle of the night.

Grab my phone and check out where Erika is here.

Then.......I go back to sleep.

Yup. I'm addicted.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-trouble-with-isaac-aka-2-faces-of.html