Danny Does the Islands. Erika in the Wings. Andrew Memories

State of the Tropics Monday Morning.

Danny has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.

Invest 98L has a 90% chance of forming.. (rolling eyes..ok already)

CV Wave on a back burner.

Old Invest in Atlantic ...gone.

Like Danny is forecast to be... eventually.

Danny at 5 AM.

In the islands.

Southern Leeward Islands

Moving into the Caribbean.

In a sweet spot currently.

Sort of catching his breath.

Just enough breath to provide the islands with some rain ;)

Headed towards more shear.

As Danny weakened...he moved more West.

Discussion says he may pull NW.

He has slowed down. 

Good ...let it rain in the Islands.

Watching Danny with friends on Twitter has been fun.

Fun because it's not a dangerous storm.

Real time discussion. 

Yes... Danny still gasping for air this morning

Next ... 

As Jim said last night on Twitter.

Invest 98L AKA Erika

That's at least a TD. 

If you ask me the NHC has 2 TDs this morning.

But, we'll see what they call it at 11.

They should call it something.

Other than "Islands we have a real problem..."

How to slice and dice an Invest?

Take off all the variables... 

There are sites that allow you to put in any variable.

Shear, vorticity, lower level winds, upper level winds.

Baby picture as well call them in the business.

Moving so fast it's hard for the NRL to keep up with it.

Best track so far on NRL.

Oh Look...there's a track.

Track is shown prior to upgrade.

Waiting on an ASCAT pass I imagine.

Read up on ASCAT and why it's so important

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php/

Especially for Cape Verde Storms too far out for Recon.

It's a game we play. Silent language. Clues.

Or you hear from a friend in high places.

Or you just know... 

Where's is the E storm going?

NHC has not put out a cone. 

I'll upgrade with a cone and more information later.

For now I'll post a map from a great APP.

Let's call it "Maybe" or "Probably"

Their earliest track for Danny before the NHC Cone..

Took it exactly through the islands where Danny is dancing now.

Their first track for Danny BEFORE the NHC cone was on the $

Yes, he wobbled but he hit the islands where they said he would.

What's that old Monkees song?

I'm a believer...

No time for music right now.

As Cantore said.. no time.

With all to talk about... I owe y'all some music later.

So I want to clarify why Cantore is better than Coffee.

Well, it's a close call but he is in top form this morning.

Truth is.... he was in top form during Andrew.

But who I remember is John Hope.

Jim said that online this morning.

Dedicate the discussion on their coverage to John.

It was John's storm.

On air as much as Bryan Norcross..

....tho Bryan was local and John was global.

And, because Jim says things like "topographic"

Others say "HAITI!" as if Dominican Republic doesn't exist.

Because he says topographic fluidly in a rush..

He never dumbs down the weather.

He shows with passion the intricacies of the Water Vapor Loop.

I'm going to post this now and update it later with thoughts on Andrew.

I want to write more in depth.

While waiting for the NHC to upgrade Erika.

Andrew...

My personal hurricane tracking map.

Publix Tracking Map.

Yes, that's my hood after Andrew above.

Miami Beach.

Apartments down the block from my job.

House on the right was a friend's house... 

The house on the right today on Google.

It's a great block.  I lived a block away to the West.

She lives on Pine Tree Drive

One of the most beautiful streets in Miami.

Famous for Justin Bieber's Drag Race.

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2014/01/23/neighbors-heard-

biebers-alleged-drag-race-down-pine-tree-drive/

http://miami.curbed.com/tags/pine-tree-drive

I lived a block to the West.  I woke up. Looked out the bedroom window and watched the sun rising over the Pine Trees or rather through the Pine Tree. When Miami Beach was chosen as a nice place to build a farm between storms and wild rabbits it was decided to they needed a wind break for the Mango Avocado and Grapefruit trees. Hard to stop the rabbits but at least a wind break would help some against the strong Easterly winds... often bringing tropical storms their way. Understand when a Hurricane hits Miami from the E or ESE as they often do..the winds slam into Miami Beach from the NE and then the East... remember that later. Collins planted the pines, they did protect his orchards. And, now as the orchards are gone... they make a beautiful shaded drive ..if you are a tourist. Drive up to Pine Tree and say 50th Street and then drive south and enjoy it. Trust me. Beautiful.

If you own or rent a house on Miami Beach West of Pine Tree Drive you have some of the best tasting mango trees in your back yard. Nothing can compare. A trolley used to run down Pine Tree South to 41st Street and then turned around on the little round block near 41st Street and Alton Road. Those of us living there were always nervous on hurricanes, but there was a feeling that short of a Cat 5 the water would drain into Indian Creek some... we were on higher ground (by a few feet..) and it would be okay.  In theory we would go to friends on the main land away from the beautiful barrier island where we lived. Note big building in the distance behind the palm tree is on Collins Avenue at the Ocean to give you a perspective. We had a big 2 story house ;)

There is ALWAYS a breeze on Miami Beach. Almost always. The summer of 1992 was "hot as blazes" and Old Timers said it was "Hurricane Weather" despite the slow start to the season with El Nino in charge of the weather. Mango trees had multiple blooms. A second bloom occurred and some said the trees bloomed a third time. Old timer talk for "a hurricane year" though why I can't say but sometimes you just don't argue with Old Timers who remembered the storms of 1940s and 1960s. 

My best friend Sharon... insisted we were getting a Hurricane. She didn't care what anyone said she knew. She insisted we start saving water bottles. We rinsed out every Publix soda bottle we could filled them with water and stored them everywhere. We both have a lot of kids. You do the math and multiple the amount of water per person for a week or so.....  we could have built a fort with the bottles we had everywhere. The kids made fun of us. A day or two before Andrew, while he was swirling out in the Atlantic, she spoke to her brother in Maine who told her... water filled in a soda bottle can become contaminated and should be filled only before it's needed. So we dumped the 100 bottles of water (or more) and refilled them. The kids made fun of us. 

My father-in-law was in town for something, who remembers what lol and things were always tense between him and my ex-husband. The negativity in the house was as thick as the humidity outside. I watched General Hospital as I cooked for the Jewish Sabbath on my little TV in the kitchen. I left Channel 10 on and listened as Don Noe insisted that Andrew was catching the trough and going to places up the coast, way up the coast. "Check back Monday to see where Andrew is, have a nice weekend!" I'm not trying to trash him, I've been told he's a great guy and didn't like the NHC forecast but he didn't on air complain about it. Sharon called........"put on Bryan which meant Norcoss. She's not one for "hi, how are you...what's up...did you see the weather??? It was a command. I did as ordered and yeah... Bryan was iffy. He was wincing. Probably still sick from all those mango blossoms blooming. His allergies always bothered his eyes. The forecast bothered him. He said so but didn't quite say "don't buy the NHC track" as much as... pointed out the possibilities. Door #1 Door #2 and Door #3 based on different models. Door #2  I believe wasn't good for Miami..

I keep the Jewish Sabbath. We light candles, say a prayer and don't watch television or go online for 24 hours. Usually if a hurricane was near I'd leave a weather radio on in a drawer somewhere muffled by underwear or socks and would check it on and off. They seemed REALLY sure Andrew was catching the trough. It was an El Nino year much like this year and there were early cold fronts, much like this year. Supposedly, by the way, this year had multiple mango blooms in Miami. Sharon has been singing her "Hurricane year" song. She doesn't always sing it, especially in El Nino years but she is this year. Not sure if she is saving bottles ...

I did Shabbos, had company (lots of company) and late in the afternoon I left the babies with my older daughters and walked around the corner to a friend's house.

Myami Beach. So beautiful.

That's the corner. 

That was Lou from Lou's Tattoos house.. 

I turned the corner and a blast of nonstop wind tore at me.

Noticeably stronger than just 2 hours earlier.

Note in the distance that condo or hotel... is the Ocean.

So the wind cuts from the East strong on that street.

See the sidewalk?

I ran home and I mean RAN.. 

I knew this was not a good sign.

Hate to admit I'm an Old Timer.

I was younger.. but am 4th generation Floridian.

Maybe 5th.. you get the idea.

Stories of hurricanes in Key West in the 1800s.

Tampa... 

Miami..the Big One.

I knew this was NOT good.

I ran the rest of the way home.

The stars had come out, Shabbos was over.

I yelled "PUT ON TWC"

And there he was... Andrew had turned West.

Intensified and was moving straight at us.

To be fair he wasn't a Category 5 yet.

We watched mesmerized in real time as he was upgraded.

Sharon called.. 

I already was watching Norcross.

Think Global, Act Local ya know...

We ran to the grocery store.

We took my older sons and put them on line as we shopped.

Understand the lines at the store were wrapped around the whole store.

Well in the store but was nuts.

We shopped, grabbed what was left.

The diapers were gone.

We had at least 3 kids in diapers.

We went to a local drug store and bought diapers.

Baby Wipes..which come in hand with no water for everything.

My father-in-law was on the phone getting the last flight out of town.

He was upgraded to first class and ran for the airport..

We went into Hurricane Mode.

The kids no longer made fun of us for the water bottles.

There was NO water left at the store by the time we got there.

People had been shopping all Saturday.

At Walgreen's they had the TV on above the counter.

Over and over the Andrew loop was showing.

Note we spoke to my friends in Kendall.

Kendall was seen as "safe" and Miami Beach was not.

After Hugo we knew Miami Beach could be Sullivans Island.

My family was Lubavitch

(Google it) 

We faxed in a letter to the Lubavitcher Rebbe for a blessing.

It's our thing, who we were...

What we did. As we had a fax machine and others didn't.

Everyone came to our house asking to fax in letters as well.

There was a real question to leaving.

When you have 5, 6 or 7 kids...or more.. evacuating is a big job.

It's always a big job but David had turned at the last moment.

And, where to go? A shelter? A friend?

We got a phone call back from Rabbi Groner.

The Rebbe's Secretary... Stay put was the message.

Okay... the NHC made it sound as if Andrew was going to hit MIAMI.

As in 41s street on Miami Beach... or march up Flagler.

Some thought possibly the County Line.

Where do you run?

North Miami Beach?

Coral Gables?

Kendall?

Friends everywhere.

Neighbors went to Miami Shores.

That made no sense it's blocks from Biscayne Bay.

The house was solid, it had survived the 1926 Hurricane.

A second fax was sent in.

Response was the Rebbe said to stay.

After Andrew was a Cat 5...

A friend in a condo from England insisted we fax in again.

He wrote a letter... faxed it in.

Rabbi Groner asked us not to call back.

He said the Rebbe seemed insisted and "made with his hand"

As if the storm would go away??

People make choices in their lives.

You walk the walk as some say.

Our walk was to listen and trust and keep the faith.

Plus...the house did make it through the direct hit of a Category 4.

We boarded up. 

A neighbor was working for Newsweek.

 The guy across the street, drove away and yelled out:

"Go UPSTAIRS! Stay above the water line!!!"

Okay.........

We dragged a mattress upstairs to the hallway.

Okay it was a big hallway.

Protected more or less.

The house was boarded up.

Before sundown...

Sharon and I went to the beach.

My daughter Miriam INSISTED on coming.

Rather than argue told her "FINE, get in the car..."

Always took her to the beach before a storm.

As we drove towards the ocean over 41st Street Bridge.

Where Justin Bieber was arrested lol.

That's my Main Street. 

Got married at the Crown Hotel there in the distance.

See the guy walking on the left?

People streamed across the street there en masse.

A solid line or humanity carrying everything they could hold.

With children, with bags, with pillows and sheets.

http://www.miamidade.gov/fire/library/hurricane/evacuation-pickup-sites.pdf

People were walking to the Park N Ride sites for Dolphin Games.

We drove past them.. the wind was blowing.

We parked and went to the boardwalk.

The wind was roaring. We stared at the surf.

It's what Miami kids do... trust me.

It was unending, never ending, nonstop wind.

As if... a fan was turned on our in the Atlantic.

And the fan was on HIGH.

My daughter Miriam was 5...

She put her arms out and ran in circles.

She made airplane sounds.

It sounded like an airplane was coming in for a landing.

Was wild. Sharon and I at the ocean... her hurricane almost here.

We drove home. I gave her a battery radio to use in the storm.

A hundred bottles of water and no battery radio?

I gave her the shower radio, figured it was waterproof.

Really.

She drove off...she had company in from Crown Heights.

Hunkered down at her house nearby.

My ex-husband and I took a long drive around Miami Beach.

It was boarded up. A few people were looking for an open gas station.

I just wanted to see it one last time.

 I figured it would never look the same again.

Visions of Hurricane Hugo danced in my head.

I watched a bag lady who hung out around 10th and Collins.

She found a spot near a gas station and was hunkering down.

Miami Beach has there millionaires and their bag ladies.

The cat women who feed 100s of cats.

Families working hard.

Seasonal people.

Except for a few friends who stayed for various reasons.

We were alone on Miami Beach.

I believe the police drove by and told us ..

.."Miami Beach is closed" 

We nodded.

After the storm they came by, parked, talked...

It was very chilled after the storm.

Anyway.......

We hunkered down upstairs.

My friend Shawn called from Vegas..

We had fallen asleep for a few minutes after dark.

The phone woke me.. 

"Are you really having a Hurricane??"

I heard the wind, TWC was still on... 

Told her, "Yes, we are...gotta go... love you!"

Hung up.

Winds got stronger.

Kids huddled on the mattress.

My son Levi refused to come in.

He sleeps like a log.

My daughters and I went in to wake him.

He fell asleep on the floor in the bedroom.

We grabbed him by his feet ..

Did I say he sleeps like a log...still.

He was 9...

We dragged him into the hall... begging him to wake up.

..He hit his head on the little wooden door stop ...

He woke up and yelled at us.

Think he still complains on that.

:)

My ex-husband didn't want to come into the hallway.

He did... he stood watching an unboarded up window facing West.

He was watching purple lightning that was transformers blowing.

The wind was roaring. He came in the hallway.

We listened to Bryan Norcross.

I lay huddled over my youngest child Rivky.

She was not 8 months old.

I figured if the ceiling caved in she'd be safer.

Safe being relative.

People were calling in Bryan and telling him stories.

Windows blown out.

Ceilings collapsing. Walls caving in.

Brian spoke to Bob Sheets live on the radio.

We thought we'd find out "where the eye was"

It sounded like the eye was over us...

At the height of the storm we could hear waves in the wind.

I thought there was water downstairs. Storm Surge.

I'm a Hurricane Historian. I know hurricanes.

I've interviewed people who went through the 1926 Hurricane.

Norman Giller, the architect, told me his father? went thru the 26 Cane.

They were down on the tip of Miami Beach.

A 3 story apartment building.

They huddled upstairs.

He looked down the staircase and the ocean had met the bay.

There was water.

That's what I expected to find the following morning.

It was obvious the house was holding up.

It was getting buffeted with wind though.

Bob Sheets told Bryan... they lost the radar on the roof.

I knew the Hurricane Center in Miami well.

I knew that roof.

Had friends who worked here.

Had friends whose father's worked there.

Bob Sheets wasn't sure that moment where the eye was.

Now I was nervous.

Feeling better about being on Miami Beach..

They were getting radar from up the coast.

Okay...

The wind was not coming from the South.

The wind was shifting to the SW.

We knew Andrew had come in SW of us ..somewhere.

We listened to Bryan all through the storm.

In the morning ... 

The 1st floor was dry.

The street was dry.

The plywood from upstairs was blown onto the ground.

Our windows were okay.

Trees were down everywhere.

A friend drove slowly down the street.

Power was off so no worries on live lines.

He wanted to check on Bais Menachem.

The Synagogue... friend's homes.

We talked to some neighbors who it turns out were there.

My parents evacuated to North Miami Beach.

We went to check on their house.

We drove around the corner ..around fallen trees over downed lines.

They lived close to 41 Street.

Signs from the cleaners was on their lawn.

Smashed glass and pieces of shredded awnings were all over the street.

Street lights, stop signs, everything was smashed on the ground.

Royal Palm Avenue was battered but okay.

Trees everywhere down.

A friend on Indian Creek due East of me lost her roof.

She had a modern house.. big A frame roof.

It took flight in the storm and landed in her neighbor's yard...

...on Pine Tree Drive.

Note to architecture student son..no A frame rooftops.

There was no power. There was barely a breeze.

No water, no cable.

No one... Miami Beach was closed.

Our neighbor the photographer from Newsweek ..

...got in with his press pass. 

He needed to check on his house.

He was shocked by the damage on Miami Beach.

1. We have big old trees.

2. The big old trees fell down.

3. We were very close to Andrew before he turned South.

That big band slammed into Miami Beach.

Up on Pine Tree and 68th damage was heavy.

A twister or micro burst..

That's a static image. Imagine it in motion...

Note I outlined the top bright orange band in red... 

Between Miami Beach and Virginia Key.

That band in motion swirled across Miami Beach.

As the crow flies were rather close to the eye.

We found out days after the storm.

Probably weeks ...as who had phone service?

My friend we were going to go to in Kendall... 

Had much, much worse damage.

My friend spent the night with his back against the closet door.

Inside the closet was his wife and their baby girl Hannah.

As she said jokingly months later.

"Good thing you didn't evacuate to our house.. 

...there wasn't any room for you in the closet"

My parents in NMB were fine.

My friends in SW Miami were not fine.

I've had people complain to me that we stayed.

In retrospect ... it was the right thing to do.

We trusted as we do...blessings from the Rebbe.

There is no scientific explanation for that....

We did what we we did... it's who we were....are...

Had we gone to any of my friends in Kendall..

I can't imagine what it would have been like.

Seems Kendall was not so safe inland.

And, though Miami Beach was torn up badly.

AC units were flung from rooftops of Condos to the grown below.

Ficus trees took the sidewalk with them at odd angles.

We were safe.

No boats on our front lawn.... as some had down South near Cutler Ridge.

Oddly a week earlier I was at my high school reunion in Miami.

I was at a wedding by the Bay... everything was normal.

Then nothing was normal ever again...or so it seemed ....

And... have unreal amazing memories of the way the wind sounded.

And yes telling you for about 10 minutes I could hear ...

...the sounds of the pounding surf in the wind.

The weeks and months after were horrible.

There was debris everywhere rotting in the hot September sun.

We waited for it to rain and told the kids to go play in the rain.

No water for showers. Neighbors went to the beach to swim.

Allergies were way worse than anything I've seen up north.

Asthma, allergies.

We used every one of those water bottles.

Drinking, washing, cleaning..

Save soda bottles.

Buy water. Buy coca cola (something I learned the hard way..)

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

Do it before there are 500 people in Publix in panic mode.

We had my son's 3rd birthday party at the Shteeble.

A big house with a synagogue inside.

Google it.

Friends on Collins had power ..

Collins has underground electric...smart.

The Rabbi's house had a generator.

We cut Mendy's hair.. 

Upshernish (Google it)

A big event. 

We gave thanks we were okay...even if without power.

It took a long time to put Miami Beach back together again.

Luckily for the Tourism industry the media was down in Homestead.

El Nino doesn't stop Category 5 Hurricanes from forming.

You may have less hurricanes...

But...it's not a wind break like Pine Tree Drive was...

My friend had a piece of a pine tree fall on her house. 

Seen in the picture above.

She was lucky. Very lucky.

We were all lucky.. blessed.

We slowly, like Old King Cole, put life back together again.

My friend's house in Kendall practically had to be rebuilt.

My friend's wife had PTS after Andrew.

They live near my now in Durham... 

NC does have hurricanes.

And, NC is long overdue for a big one.

But..not gonna remind her of that.

Just saying.

If you live somewhere in Hurricane Country.

One day a hurricane will find you.

As for my kids...

Her's a pic of my hurricane baby and her brother Mendy.

They were at a friend's wedding last night in Miami.

The daughter without weather Apps cause she just calls her mommy.

Mendy ... called me last week to ask about Danny.

Hurricane kids. Miami kids.

They watch the tropics..

They've been through Hurricanes.

A lot of people in Miami have moved there recently.

They have not.

It's a big concern.

I'm not proofing this too much as it's written emotionally.

From memories...as they rush at me.

As I sit here on "Black Monday" watching the market.

Watching soon to be Erika coming together on satellite imagery.

Remembering Andrew... 1992.

While waiting for Erika to be named.. as TD or TS.

What is in a name?

Not sure but...we made fun of the name Andrew.

Seemed a silly name for a hurricane.

It barely stayed alive..

El Nino Year...

Thanks for reading... stay safe, prepare

http://www.wsvn.com/link/742100/hurricane-map-guide

Read it, take the time. Make a plan that works for your needs.

Need prescriptions filled? Need diapers?

Need a battery operated weather radio?

www.spaghettimodels.com

Watch and stay on top of the tropics.

Things change fast in the tropics.

Sometimes the models see it..

..sometimes they don't.

They didn't see Danny hitting Cat 3..

The cold front looked to be strong enough to catch Andrew.

Didn't happen.

Models are better now... but.. not perfect.

And, weather happens in real time.

Besos Bobbi

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html