Danny Persisting. Erika Forming. Danny Feeling Like Heidi Klum.. And Why Danny Ignores WAZE

Quick Update at 5PM

No major change in track or forecast from the NHC.

Seems they believe Danny will die in Port Au Prince.

Bad Frog Legs perhaps?

He's battling shear.

Warm water is near.

Heading into the Islands as a Tropical Storm.

Watching in real time.

The Danny Drama isn't over yet...

Oddly the local weather in NC began with talk on the new storm developing.

It hasn't even formed... but they are talking about it.

Added in Danny is going thru the Islands soon.

Note according to the NHC Erika will do the islands too.

Next week.

Good discussion at www.crownweather.com

Bigger storm, something about "sustainability"

According to the NHC Danny is a dress rehearsal for Erika.

Erika is moving fast, perhaps too fast to pull it together.

A big, lumbering storm.

Oh...and there's one behind her.

I guess these are El Nino Canes...

The local weather news in NC opened with talk of a new storm.

The storm has not formed.

Why are they talking about it now?

A look at the track will show you.

Note the F storm behind Erika...

Note the ? and arrow by the 1 model..

..that suggests landfall n NC.

Remember Ana already made landfall there earlier this year.

Some talk around tropical circles that energy from Danny

Regenerates and keeps going..

Time will tell on that one.

For now... 

Sit back and watch Danny.

I'll update when something has changed.

Please continue reading below.

Still important valuable information

And...explanations on why meteorologists hate Danny 

As he is weak, he is hitting the islands further South ...

...than the previous NHC discussion.

They say that will give the islands to the N more rain.
Not much there but anything helps.

Beautiful Graphic!

Water Vapor Loop shows Danny struggling.

Also shows dry air inhibiting Erika from forming..yet..

* * * 

1st things 1st.

Danny EXISTS so I will start with Danny.

Erika is in the wings and I will address that next.

Is that green on the funktop?

Why is there green on the funktop.

Crazy Danny doesn't want to give up.

Remember the map I put up of the Caribbean days ago?

August 20, 2015. 3 Day Ago.

That is still the area we are concerned with regarding Danny.

Let's take a look:

Concerned is a funny word as they are expecting a Tropical Storm.

They are hoping for a tropical storm that brings rain.

They are in a drought. They need rain.

They don't need mudslides...which could happen.

But, they need rain.

Tropical Storm Watch for PR, US Virgin Islands

Culebra and  Vieques

Tropical Storm Warnings

Antigua

Barbuda

Montserrat 

St. Kitts

Nevis

Anguilla

Now let's look at Danny.

Danny reminds me of some young, thin, nerdy Eco Green kid.

He has decided to peddle across America with an experimental bike/car.

It's winter and there's blizzards and people make fun of him.

He is out to prove a point.

He does it anyway.

He keeps posting pics along the way.

He grows a beard, bulks up a bit.

Goes Vegan and only eats Raw Food.

He has his own Twitter Site.

Snap Chat

WAZE says there's BAD traffic in NYC.

He parks when traffic is bad.

Munches on seeds and nuts.

Along the way people wave.

Some even give him vegan brownies.

He doesn't worry about traffic.

He's small, he goes around the traffic on the curb..

His vehicle can pull itself in to bike size.

He goes between traffic.

Police don't give him a ticket as...

...last time they did people protested.

There are signs "GO DANNY GO!" 

His wife leaves him for the neighbor who was cutting her lawn.

FOX ignores him and CNN occasionally shows his story.

He's a star on NPR.

Despite all the shear and dry air...

Danny keeps on chugging along.

Big meteorologists keep wishing he'd go away.

He's yesterday's news.

He's a 42 year old girl who is no longer a 10 :( 

Danny knows how Heidi Klum feels

Heidi has a great birthday by the way.

I've seen Heidi on South Beach without make up..

She's probably at least a 9..

Which is at least 4 more points than The Donald will ever get.

But.. Heidi is in the news.

Any publicity is better than no publicity.

Danny could use some publicity.

Why?

Because he's not dead yet.

He shouldn't have been alive at all.

SAL should have killed him.

He should look worse on satellite imagery.

The NHC says he will be dead soon.

My youngest son believes them.

He said they are generally right.

If he is not completely dead ...

..there could be some problems.

Or there could be a transfer of energy to another storm.

Let's look at discussion. 

You can hear them thinking..

"DIE DANNY DIE ALREADY!!!"

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/231436.shtml?

Salient part is being prudent they issued warnings.

$alient. In case... he maintains strength longer than previously expected.

In law firms that is called CYA.

Prudent call.

Basically he will go W to WNW under the High.

He may slip further south as a weaker system.

Seems some questions there.

Basically they are going with their star models

EURO and GFS

If Danny doesn't die.

They can blame it on the models.

Nuff Said.

Track:

Lord have Mercy we have looked at this track FOREVER it seems.

Let's look at Danny.

He plods along getting closer and closer to the islands. Pulses up, weakens, pulses up. It's as if he can smell the warmer water and less shear somewhere there..  He has a lifeline of sorts feeding him some moisture from the Monsoon Trough which may be the only reason he is still here or he has one heck of a defined core despite the shear.

See the Water Vapor Loop

You see what he is doing? Will it help in the long term? Maybe. Either way he's got to cross that Great Divide of Dark, DRY Air and SHEAR!! That's what they say...

Looks like he's getting closer to the Islands.

And, bigger.

His circulation center is almost visible.

Yet his convection is not detaching.

Not naked yet.

Personally I don't think it's time to write his obituary.

He's attached still and smelling warmer, moister air.

Some models trying to get to the market.

Have a bundle of tracks to sell that keep him alive.

IF he survives he could reform in the Bahamas..

Or South of Cuba...

Or transfer what is left of energy to a new system.

But, trust me no one wants to go there.

It's a far fetched possibility.

But one worth remembering.

You can go to www.spaghettimodels.com

And, see all the models.

All the models for all the Invests ...

Including the one expected to be Erika further East.

The problem with Erika is that she may go the distance.

When I say "the distance" I mean there are rumors of "landfall"

East Coast... Maybe.

Probably a Fish but too far away to tell..

A long, long ways away to be whispering rumors.

Note the water chart shows how close Danny is to WARM water.

Every breath he takes... every mile he makes.

He gets closer to tropical fuel.

Can he get past the islands?

Only time will tell.

Most cities in Hurricane Land are watching him.

As for Erika.

You notice TWC is talking on erosion in Ocean City.

Why?

Did you ever think on that?

It's like on a soap opera...

When they suddenly mention little Erika who went off to Yale...

...You can bet Erika is gonna come back with a law degree.

And sexy heels and a strong plot line.

Erica Kane is a Diva...

Ocean City..

Mid Atlantic Beach...

That's a 4 foot drop off in some places.

Below is a long range cone for a storm that has not yet formed.

The NHC already has ERIKA in the Islands.

Seems Danny is an appetizer.

Vegan of course...

Erika likes red meat!

I'd rather deal with Danny today.

Erika tomorrow.

Understand?

Extrapolate that red cone.

Hope fronts take her out to sea...

Cause at the moment she's a big system.

Moving fast.

On the same track as Danny.

Except expected to keep on going..

I'm not saying she is going to the Carolinas.

Or going to Miami.

Or going into the GOM.

But oh look meteorologists in the Sandhills of NC are watching

Hmnnn

You might want to watch the video below.

I'm going to.

But Jim is talking on a Hurricane splitting the uprights..

Between Bermuda and... ?

Watch. Learn.

I'll be back with an update on Danny

And, soon to be born Erika.

Also I'm writing a post on Katrina.

Stay tuned.

If Danny doesn't die and takes the Northern track.

Cannot see him dying over Bahamas.

If he hits Hispaniola... 

Well...will he get that far?

Still he has to cross the Great Dry Divide.

Besos Bobbi

@bobbistorm

As for Erika hope she gives up meat 

And, starts eating sushi!!