Erika Intensifying. Much of FL in Cone. Where Is she going? How to Read a Cone

11 AM 

Currently 45 MPH.

Recon having some problems finding flight level TS winds.

They will get the data.

Convection there.
Erika may have centers at different levels.
Just a thought. Possible.
Only thing for sure is the cone moves further inland ...
Expect a bigger update at 5 PM.

New cone at 11 AM extrapolated cone from 5 AM

I've highlighted the wind speed and motion in yellow.

Almost at the Florida Georgia line.

Note Wind Probabilities now include the GOM and inland cities.

Augusta GA and Columbia SC are in it as well.. far inland.

Wind probs show the trend in thinking on future 5 Day Cones.

Pointing out the current widespread models on intensity 

Model Tracks 

Notes from Discussion

As I have said Upper Level Lows can hurt storms.

Storms often move towards them.

Moth to the flame?

Sometimes an ULL to the NW of a storm ..

...can enhance convection.

Before and after of Erika from 12 hours ago til NOW

Now let's look at Erika close up.

You can see her ball of convection is misplaced.

Away from the center due to shear..

IF she would slow down a bit...it might help.

Her forward speed is hurting her.

Though she'll move past the shear faster..

...into warmer water near PR.

Continue reading ... Thanks!

A look at the world from far away shows Erika.

Building out in the Atlantic.

She's past the strongest negative conditions.

Always some negative problem but doing better.

Notice the dark dip on top pressing down.

Keeping her more westward for now.

Note the dry air she is pushing into.

Note her solid core.

Erika has moved into our world.

This is the problem I have.

This is the 5 Day Cone of Erika from the NHC at 5 AM

Below is my thoughts on their 5 Day Cone

I've added things I want you to remember.

1. The 3 day cone is almost a given.

2. It can be ANYWHERE in the 5 day cone on Day 5.

3. Going in any direction or stalled out.

4. Water temperatures in the 5 day are HOT.

(I was conservative..there is 90 degree water in a few places)

5. The red circle around the 3 day is almost a given.

Again... somewhere IN that circle.

The NHC provides "forecast points" but...

They remind you it can be anywhere in the "CONE"

It's a way we can later validate the projected points.

If it has hit the previous projected point.

If it goes S or N we can see.

General Public: Watch the whole cone area please.

The NHC put out incredibly well written discussion at 5AM.

As their cone covers a good part of South Florida it needed to be.

Note the cone covers everything south of say Orlando.

Tampa and the Florida Keys included.

Note the reminder of past errors in the 5 day cone at the bottom.

The early part I didn't show basically says Erika looks better.

Explains the current motion and movement.

Note the ridge to the N is currently driving Erika

There is a large spread in the models.

A lack of consistency

Think of that like listening to a kid who told little lies..

You begin to be careful on trusting him again.

You watch consistency with the better models.

They adjusted the track to the left (South)

Based on the HWRF model.

Depending on the next run they could nudge it right later.

Last 5 years errors in the cone are:

180 Miles at Day 4

240 Miles at Day 5

As I said... it could be anywhere in that cone.

Thank God we have the cone.

My thoughts and I will have more thoughts later today.

Understand we are currently looking at a weak tropical storm pulling together after a horrible day yesterday. Due to it's large size it has more ample moisture than Danny did when battling negative conditions. She has a serious problem with her centers not being aligned. She is or has been what you call "TILTED" which does not mean "game over" but means it's in danger of making the game over. Often hurricanes travel with a center that is not aligned perfectly. Larger storms often have this problem due to multiple centers on different atmospheric levels. Sometimes one center tries to make a run for it and try to out run the real center. For now she is doing better and we need to take the 5 day forecast seriously. Her odds of collapsing are also collapsing. 

Looking good this morning.

Much better than last night.

More solid center.

Moving at a fast clip towards the various islands.

More symmetrical.

Banding.

Think we got a spinner.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

Visible Image at Sunrise

Wide View

Doesn't take a meteorologist to see Erika is stronger.

I'd expect the wind speed will be stronger at 11.

I also expect the 5 day wind speed forecast to go up.

So don't be fooled by the current forecast wind speed of  80 MPH 

If it makes it to those very warm waters... it could be over 90MPH

I'm being very conservative here... will discuss this more in the future.

One of my problems is the uncertainty of the track.

Note the wind probabilities on the North side of the cone.

Again following the NHC Discussion

" new ECMWF run is stronger with Erika with a track farther to the right"

Again if Erika comes in further South as a weaker system.

And, she has a lot of shear out ahead of her to fight still.

"GFS takes a much weaker Erika west-northwestward"

Again let's look at the wind probabilities for Erika on the South side of the cone.

Let's start at Tampa.

Either she gets there by going through the Keys and pulling North.

Or she goes across Florida towards the GOM.

Either way Tampa is in it.

As is the whole coast line down to Key West.

Cuba... all the way down to the Isle of Pines.

That is a wide spread in uncertainty.

Warning all the possible tropical ports of call.

PAY ATTENTION

2 Days from now the cone could look like this..

...either the blue cone or the red cone.

Posting this AGAIN... on purpose.

Understand?

Or it could just continue WNW across FL into the GOM.

Let's worry on the GOM later.

It could also slow down and stall ..crawl thru the Bahamas.

Again water temperature in it's path

www.tropicaltidbits.com

86 degrees off the Carolinas

88 degrees off of South Florida

89 degrees around the Keys

So with Erika looking like she's gonna be a contender.

We have to watch her today and see how strong she is at 5 PM.

Recon is in the storm.

Maybe they will find the center aligned...

If so this intensifying mode will continue.

Expect the 5 day forecast wind speed to be higher on future cones.

The track is pretty solid, especially in the 3 day.

The intensity I'm not trusting.

IF and this is SUCH a HUGE IF.. 

She takes the North side of the cone..

..we have to think on SC and NC (oh and GA)

Here's some discussion from Twitter.

Something to think on..

Chick knows NC weather and Hurricane History.

As for the current track.

Cantore likes it. We were talking last night.

Note he did say "at this time" 

As I say I like the 3 day cone.

The 5 day could lean more left or right in a day or so.

The NHC puts out another cone called the Mariners Rule.

Read up on it. It's a solid cone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/115459.shtml?basin?large#contents

As said on www.crownweather.com scenarios develop after PR

"Once Erika tracks past Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, there are still 2

potential scenarios with what could occur with Erika"

Really it's not about the cone today ...

...but the cone on Friday morning in my opinion.

If you live in Miami and are in the cone...

Or anywhere in the cone..

Review the hurricane plans.

Renew any Rx you may need.

If you see something on sale good for a hurricane.. buy it.

You can use snacks, batteries and diapers later trust me.

As you get deeper into the cone.. IF..

Shop, stock up and slowly begin preparing.

vs RUSH and panic mode later when diapers and water are gone.

Again back to Erika

Last thoughts here..

On one side... 

Erika is moving in tandem with dry air.

On another side...

Should she continue intensifying... 

And if there is model support...

The cone will pull to the right (north)

Keep watching.

If you are in the 4th or 5th day of the Cone..

Stay Aware.

If you continue to be..

Prepare.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps. I'll be back soon...

Right now Erika looks a lot like Rocky.

I'll update at the top with the 11 AM Cone 

So you can compare and contrast ...

Time will tell.

Check the models you tell me on Twitter.

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/