Erika Forms. 5 Day Cone Pointed at South Florida.. Could Turn, Still Early. Speedy Storm Moving FAST

Hello Erika!

The NHC upgraded Invest 98L tonight to Tropical Storm Erika.

11 PM Advisory.

Looks like an Elephant.

Big, trunk... looking WNW

You can see the various ways we judge a storm that far out.

That image shows vorticity, shear ..

It shows ship reports.

Shows Erika.

Water Vapor Floater shows a nice core.

I like the big picture. 

You know that.

She's that far away from South Florida.

Further from the Carolinas.

That said.....

First off important to know wind probs include Miami and WPB.

That would include FLL obviously.

Oh...and the Florida Keys.

It has that classic Cape Verde track.

If that doesn't get your heart going...

Nothing will.

Mind you the NHC holds Erika as a Tropical Storm.

That will change. Intensity forecasting hasn't been great.

Track forecast has been very good.

However not all models are on board the Erika Express.

Hurricane City has a good map.

They are located IN Hurricane Country.

Note the cone is wide on the 5th Day.

Could just as easily from this cone go through the Keys 

Or it could turn up the coast towards the Carolinas.

Bermuda...

Could be a Fish Storm.

Remember Floyd?

The NHC said Floyd would turn just off shore Miami.

And, it did.

Didn't help NC much, but did turn.

Cuba or Carolinas?

Or ... Florida.

I'll be back in the morning. 

In the afternoon we should get better data.

Recon will go in.. 

Problems?

Erika is moving fast.

Speed makes it hard to wrap and develop.

It has some running room with not bad conditions.

Then it hits a negative area with worse conditions.

SAL there...

Sort of thumbing her nose at him.

Keep an eye on shear charts.

Shear bad.

Watch the warm water.

Warm water feeds the storm.

Intensity shown below too.

I watch the shear and water temperature charts often.

Earlier this evening a track was put out.

Pre-Naming Publicity Track.

They were spot on with Danny.

If you live in Miami should you worry?

Yes. Of course.

Well a little. Might be a good diversion from the Dow Jones...

If you live anywhere  W, WNW or NW of this storm you should worry.

Pay attention. Remember that cones change every 6 hours.

Don't buy into one cone or one model.

Keep watching.

I'll be back later.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbi Storm

@bobbistorm

Ps... Crown Weather put this up today.

Was part of discussion on Twitter.

Size and track... could be a lot like Floyd.