Erika 5AM Cone Headed Towards Miami? Or Perhaps the Carolina Coast? Stalls Maybe in Bahamas Over HOT Water. Recon Going in Sooon

Good Morning.

Relatively short post this morning.

Waiting for hard data from Recon later today.

Looks a bit mischievous doesn't it?

Where is it going?

Big Tropical Storm out in the Atlantic.

Moving towards the islands and coast of the USA.

5 Day Cone from NHC

If Erika was an Ice Cream Cone ..

What flavor would she be?

Random thought?

Key Lime Erika?

Coconut Cream Pie Erika?

Pecan Pie Erika?

Low Country Boil Erika?

Moving on....

Shortly after it formed the media pounced on it.

These 2 Tweets came in together in this order.

Carolina... both North and South...

is watching this storm carefully.

Miami Herald is trying not to scare the tourists...

One shows the 5 day. One shows the 3 day.

Both accurate on track.

Intensity is the IFFY part with this storm.

And, for those of you who know me..

..know getting the intensity right is important.

Carolina is watching this one more than usual.

And so they should be.

Here's another one...

Side bar here... GFS likes Tampa..

Miami is most definitely in it 

You never want to have the highest odds...

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line

Still needs to pull it together.

A bit ADD if I may say so..

..and I can say so trust me ;)

Erika needs to pull herself together.

Large storms are wont to do so..

But..........if and when they do... watch out!

One of the problems with the forecast track for Erika is...

...she finds her groove over the warm waters of the Gulfstream.

Great water temperatures charts and shear maps on ..

www.spaghettimodels.com

I spend so much time there ... 

Note the top 2 show where Erika is..

Sweet

Remember one thing...

She is far away still.

Nice map shows how far she is..

Shows pressure in her path

http://www.sailwx.info/wxobs/pressure.phtml

Go to www.canetalk.com 

For links like this one and the colorful one above.

A lot of people on that message board.

From different places.

Some do meteorology professionally.

Others do it as a hobby...

...because they sail, they golf, they have been hurricanes.

www.canetalk.com

Erika is moving fast.

Total opposite speed and size wise from Danny.

But will do the same trip that Danny did until the Islands.

Note what's left of Danny is still dawdling down there..

Good model agreement on short term track.

Long term there is a fly in the ointment.

Some models show this fast mover slowing down in the Bahamas.

Slowing down with weak steering currents over HOT water would be Eww.

Watches already up for the Islands

Did I mention she is a fast mover?

20 MPH moving West.

She might slow down closer to Florida.

Not a good thing as waters are cooking in Bahamas.

This happens often.

Note how slow the cold fronts are moving

A long term forecast from RALEIGH, NC

"IN NO HURRY AT ALL"

Why?

Steering currents may collapse.

Or high builds in after she is stronger.

She goes WEST somewhere towards Land.

I know you're thinking Andrew was in an El Nino Year

I find it interesting Hawaii got hit with similar track this year..

As it did in 1992 with Iniki

Was a weak storm compared to Iniki

But set rain records there.

Patterns exist 

Also a bit worried Charleston is in the flow.

Recent flooding there as in Tampa

Danny on DA Water Vapor Loop

Right now at 8 AM

Moving W at 20 MPH Fwd Speed

45 MPH Strong

Keep Watching.

Back with information from Recon later...

Besos BobbiStorm

Know anybody in Miami?

Everybody has a cousin in Miami ....