Waiting for Erika to Fight Off Shear... Cone Shifts a Bit East. Have Patience & Check Back Soon ;)

Short 11 PM Update Cone

Still 45 MPH 

W 16 MPH FWD Speed.

Track shift to the East makes this a bigger NC SC Concern.

Florida still in the Cone.

Key West is NOT in the Cone.

Looks bright on satellite imagery

Close to islands.

NHC says convection not over center.

Some discussion from NHC on it's ability to survive the shear.

Bastardi weighs in

We'll know soon.

Time will tell.

It can bust through the shear..

But it would be like a Winnebago....

...driving on a bike path with high winds.

Keep reading discussion please..

Erika looking like she needs some help here.

A lot of discussion about down the line...

...will she get to down the line to intensify?

A good map below explains the ongoing problem of shear..

So many questions.

I went on Facebook again.

I don't learn my lesson.

"So now that it looks like we r in the cone

when is it supposed to hit"

Another very sweet young girl.

Who lives near Tampa.

"Been checking your friend Mike's page daily, 

very informative thanks. The cone thing looks

like it's heading towards South Florida.

What do you think?"

So I'm going to post his link again ;)

https://www.facebook.com/TropicalUpdates?fref=ts

Ask him on Facebook... or talk to others who are sharing thoughts.

I think the new cone from the NHC is a good cone.

I think it makes more sense in relation to many factors.

I've been feeling the storm will come close to Miami.

And come close to most of South Florida 

More likely skim the coast and head North.

Then stall somewhere.

Possibly loop.

Its a matter of timing.

Does Erika get "there" at the right time.

Note next cone could cover parts of Georgia.

While still being over South Florida.

Discussion for Erika at 5 PM.

I so agree. After a few great hours this morning ..

Erika's convection collapsed. 

This is because she has a problem with her vertical alignment.

Think of you car... you can drive it for a while when it's alignment is off.

But it's better to have the alignment fixed.

Continuing on...

Moving through moderate shear.

If Erika cannot wrap her convection around her circulation... 

Or if she doesn't develop a new center of circulation...

She is in trouble.

Models continue to develop her after 72 hours.

They are for now being conservative.

You know that saying ..

"wait until you see the whites of their eyes"

At this point they would like to see

Tropical Storm Force Winds

In the vicinity of the circulation center.

I highlighted the salient points.

Global weakness shows Erika turning NW

Down the road... not for 3 or more days.

Nudged cone to the East a bit.

Remember errors on the 5th day can be 240 miles.

I have a lot of friends online and off.

I was playing earlier.

This is what I was playing with

I drew this around 3:30 PM.

Comes at South Florida.

Maybe moves inland...causing mucho rain inland.

More likely skims the coast ...

...where Florida juts out into the Gulfstream

Continues North towards Carolinas...

Or Continues N and then stalls, loops.

Interestingly the new 5 PM Cone has a similar thought process.

Repeating AGAIN the 5 PM Cone so you don't have to scroll up.

Wind probs show the concern is moving up the coast.

Note Daytona North has lesser odds.

Also note it could go all the way North to Canada.

Note the yellow circle.

The "center" of Erika is not under the convection.

Note the convection is popping to the South of the Center.

Nice spin but misplaced convection.

Don't want to say she is topless but honestly..

She is missing some convection up there...

Does this look familiar?

Pushing west into the dry air...

Hurricane Isaac in 2012 had a problem with multiple centers early on.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-trouble-with-isaac-aka-2-faces-of.html

How did it turn out you ask?

Found warm water.

It was weak until it wasn't.

Different atmospheric set up though similar time of year.

Ken Kaye from the Sun Sentinel posted a good article

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/forecast/

For people in South Florida worried...they should read it.

Mind you normally when you have a weak storm like Erika...

You figure she will go more to the West.

Southern track not the new Cone from NHC.

That is based on models who indicate she will intensify closer in.

2015 has been the year of Close In storms.

Note there is a new wave exiting Africa.

Can the possible F storm fight the dry air?

The new drone that was flying around out there..

Found very very dry air in front of Erika

No surprise there.

Remember our Pal Sal?

Loop:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html

Another view. Note SAL is what Erika is dealing with ...

Channel 9 Bay News has great images.

www.spaghettimodels.com posted many of their maps.

Jim Cantore said something to me last night.

Why he thinks I do not have "patience" is a different question.

He said to have "patience" 

By which he means do not judge Erika but how she looks now.

And, she has a long road to go before she hits her sweet spot.

Okay, I said that about "the sweet spot" 

But that's the truth.

I have patience trust me.

Does Erika got what it takes to go the distance?

She's a rebound storm like some people diet, binge and diet again.

Let's put it this way.

When a storm isn't aligned well... they TILT

The centers do not line up.

www.tropicaltidbits.com explained this last night.

TILT means Malfunction.

As this pin ball machine explains.

Melbourne Discussion is a good read.

Main points on Erika below.

Miami NWS Discussion highlights the UNCERTAINTY

Note a storm being "tilted" is not that unusual.

Happens often.

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/papers/resiliency.pdf

You can read the article linked above.

The figure I want to show you is worth looking at.

Note.....sometimes storms fix this problem.

When shear relaxes... but shear is forecast to continue.

Sometimes they reform under strong convection.

A sort of sneaky way of avoiding the problem.

They find a better spot a better path...

For now it's worth noting ...things will change between now and then.

The general cone is very solid, good, well done.

But the cone is wide in the 5 day and shows landfall ....

....as well as Erika  off shore....

This is said well by www.crownweather.com

An interesting map he put up.

Worth noting IF you live in SOUTH Florida.

You would be on the SW side of Erika

Usually that is the weaker side...good news.

The rougher weather would stay off shore.

Unless ..she makes landfall.

So much uncertainty on many levels.

As he says in his discussion... 

"it doesn't mean Florida is out of the woods.

It needs to be stated that model guidance shift around a lot this far out in time" 

He reminds people even off shore Erika could bring hurricane conditions.

A lot of IFS... 

If he is strong.

If he exists.

Which is why..........we need to have "patience"

Watch and see what recon finds.

Watch and see what Erika does...

Watch and see if Erika can fix herself up or recon.

Note there may be tropical storm force winds.

Recon found them once. They may have missed them.

It's a big area and they were doing many tasks..

Wind speed collection is just one of them.

I was speaking to my best friend Sharon on this.. 

so many possibilities..

And, possible Erika is downgraded to a TD or Open Wave.

Either way she will be watched.

In 3 or 4 days the A Team models intensify Erika.

In ways its funny that we get so wrapped up in this...

... better than watching the National News sometimes..

And... every weather wizard is trying feverishly to figure it out.

Remember that song.. 

Waiting for a Hero?

People are waiting to see what Erika is gong to do..

Stay tuned...

Besos Bobbi

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Remember there are problems for the US coastal population IF 

Erika does indeed over come the negative environment..

...that killed Danny before her.

And........there is the possibility of a stall.

IF Danny were to stall over land, it could mean inland flooding problems.

If it stalls off the coast over warm water.. she would intensify.

IF she stalls she could also loop.

We could.........be tracking Erika for days...

So.......have some "patience"

:)