Deadly TS Erika 12 Dead in Caribbean ... Many Missing...Death Toll Could Climb Higher. Where is Erika's Center & Where is it Going... Watch the Weather Mass AKA FLOODING RAINS

Tropical Storm Erika
11AM
Straight from the source

11 AM Cone 

If you are in the yellow (I added the yellow..)

Prepare on having tropical ? weather ?

What kind remains to be seen.

If you are in the Red cone... KEEP WATCHING ERIKA

This is the excellent discussion from NHC

Best discussion I've read in days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/281452.shtml

Deals with the reality of the dangers people are going thru NOW.

Canadian Track. Love their map.

Back to Erika

Could Erika's convection be getting closer to her circulation?
If this trend continues we may have a new storm.
Or...she slams into Hispaniola.
Sometimes they bounce off and reform in a different spot.
Makes for a difficult forecast for people in FL ....

Also note there is a strong Tropical Wave behind her.
Could be Fred....




And remember...

Death Toll in Dominica is climbing....

Many missing.
The number varies by sources.
Main Point: Erika as a weak TS killed many already.

Yes from this messy looking storm.

12 Dead at least. Many missing..

Rains in her SE side not near the center.

You can pray this storm never wraps and pulls it together...

Where is she going?

That track takes it over very HOT water...

more water temperature links on www.spaghettimodels.com

Everyone wants to know "where Erika is going?"

When?

Who is getting it?

Where is she going?

How will she get there?

What is she doing West of Forecast track point?

Going to put this up now and add to it later.

This is the main point.

I drew possible tracks.

New cone not that different from last so still all true.

The blue X on the bottom is where Erika dies out..

Then she reforms under stronger convection... 

Keeps going.. or not.

She can take the West side of the Cone..

...go into the GOM (HOT WATER)

She can wobble across land.

Become an open wave..

reform in the Florida Straits (HOT WATER)

She can somehow continue on... 

...go through the Florida Keys 

Miami & South FL gets RAIN

Pulls North with a dipping Cold Front.

Goes through Tampa as ??

Crosses Florida after crawling, stalling over N Florida

RAIN ...a lot of RAIN

Flooding Rains have been Erika's signature

Then back over water..

Up towards SC and NC.

Mike at www.spaghettimodels.com is near Tampa.

He may see something from Erika.

Great water temperature charts on his site.

Useful IF Erika gets into Hot Water while alive...

See the problems here?

Because she is a steady Tropical Storm.

http://www.weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/

tropical-storm-erika-preparations-caribbean-florida-impacts

Again a Killer Tropical Storm 

AT LEAST 12 DEAD in DOMINICA

But meteorologists are perfectionists ...

They don't like her shape, her structure...

To read their judgemental discussion..

You wouldn't know she is a deadly storm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/280850.shtml

I don't like that she killed at least 12 people in the Caribbean.

Erika is a "weak storm only because ...

her strongest convection is misplaced away from her strongest winds.

To be a rearl Hurricane..she needs winds and weather together.

Like words and music.

Darius Rucker has them both.

He can do any genre...

So can Taylor Swift.

Can Erika do what she is forecast to do is the bigger problem.

She, much like Hurricane Georges, always ends up West of forecast.

She, unlike Georges, is a tropical storm.

Tropical Storms are very hard to forecast.

A strong Cat 3 is much easier to forecast.

No one wants a Cat 3 but they are easier to forecast.

Direction and where the weather will happen.

Where's the "center"

Where's the "weather"

??

A messy tropical storm dumps rain.

Has multiple vortexes and mid level detached centers.

This was shown last night on Twitter well.

Brian is an expert. He knows. 

It's a Miami Day for TWC.

They are in town. 

In case Erika follows the plan.

Or the cone...

This is the problem.

Meteorologists are trying to figure out what is basically...

a Shell Game.

Watch the video.

This is the problem answering the question?

Where is Erika going?

Will she survive Pico Duarte..

Hispaniola?

Good meteorologists know even weak storms can cause misery

Tropical Storm Josephine was one of them

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1996josephin.html

Understand that meteorologists for the most part are scientific creatures. They are all about the math and the science. Tropical meteorologists are funny creatures. They are passionately, emotionally drawn to the hard to understand and predict Hurricanes. They want somehow to master their uncertain movements with mathematical solutions; algorithmsusing magnificent models that predict a tropical cyclones movement days in advance, sometimes weeks in advance.. And then a storm like Erika comes along. Messy, deadly despite her current disorganized condition and continually tracking just outside the 24 hour cone...which is nudged west with her. Happens, Hurricane Georges did that too.. 

Remember that song Along Comes Mary?

This is not Mary but you get the idea...

Thankfully this is NOT Hurricane Georges... strong hurricane.

Hurricane History Lesson ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1998GEORGESadv.html

Great discussions. Watch him continue to "wobble West" often..

... he didn't make the expected turn til after Cuba...

Perhaps Erika will make the turn.

Often the dangerous, memorable ones find a way to stay alive.

Watch to see where she makes her turn... when...if...

And prayers for those who are missing in her wake..

For those who lost loved ones... 

Wise words from Cantore. 

Even weak storms can generate flooding.

And in Hispaniola that translates to mudslides as well

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

Ps Updating all day long...

Check back often for new thoughts or changes in Erika

If you are in the 3 Day Cone of the NHC..

Follow their advice.

Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.