Erika in the Carib.. Will She Survive Hispaniola? IF She Does...Then What? For Now Her Torrential Rains Could Bring Trouble To HAITI & DR. For FL..
Cone at 5 PM
50 MPH Winds
West at 21 MPH (faster)
Again I outlined the 3 day in yellow.
If you live in that 3 day cone.
Pay close attention to the next advisory.
Watch for any watches or warnings.
As yet there are none for FL as the question is will Erika survive..
...to threaten Florida later in the forecast period.
The Red circle is the area where people should not forget about Erika.
In the 4th or 5th day those areas might deal with what is left of Erika.
And, there may be something left of Erika.
Models
Why you ask would it turn hard right?
It's going due West......
Because of the front, dip in the Jet Stream.
As a weak Tropical Depression she would continue West..
See? Looks simple right?
Nothing simple about this storm.
John Hope used to call this area the graveyard of the Caribbean.
He would say if it doesn't become a hurricane before there..
... it might not make it.
Time will tell.
Note this is the worst type of storm for the NHC to forecast.
Weak now but could be strong later.
The crossing of Hispaniola puts everything on hold.
Iffy all round.
Watch the water vapor loop below.
Erika, the center, is at the top most NW point of convection visible above.
The color to the South is the convection that is detached from the center...
....but travels with Erika.
Basically there is a mid-level circulation that travels with Erika.
It's that mid-level circulation with torrential rain that hit Dominica.
Hard to understand?
Harder to forecast trust me.
The small circle IS the center of Erika.
The X is where most people think Erika is...
That is her convection, the convection that killed people in the Carib.
Keep this water temperature chart in mind while looking at the cone please.
The Florida Straits has been known to turn a TS into a stronger Hurricane.
Water Temperature is between 89 and 90 degrees.
Going to put here something that a good friend of mine said.
Alfred Spellman, of Rakontur fame..
Cocaine Cowboys..
The U...
Dawg Fight...,
He is a Miami Beach guy.. grew up there.
Knows tropical threats well.
He said something very true.
Basically it is that simple.
1. Hispaniola may give Erika the 1 - 2 punch
2. Anything can happen over 90 degree water.
IF Erika were to make it across somehow intact..
Or she reforms, bounces off of land into the hot bath tub water.
She could turn into a much stronger storm.
A bigger threat.
First she has to get past... Hispaniola.
One storm that did was Cleo.
Cleo took on Hispaniola but as a strong hurricane.
Same track, different storm.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news/Cleo.pdf
Then it cut North up across Cuba.
Seems the 1-2 punch wasn't enough for Cleo..
Neither was Cuba.
She did go down to a weak Tropical Storm.
Then she hit the hot waters of the Florida Straits.
And hit Miami as a strong Cat 2.. almost a Cat 3
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news/Cleo.pdf
The water met the bay on Miami Beach near the Deauville Hotel.
Friends watched their grass die from salt water intrusion.
She was a big storm that everyone said wouldn't be much...
...if she made it at all.
AGAIN.. she was a MAJOR HURRICANE..
Not a Tropical Storm like Erika.
Just keeping that in your mind...
...if anything gets into the Florida Straits it has very warm water.
BUT... it has to get past South Florida's force field.. Hispaniola.
On top of that wind shear lessens to the North of Cuba.
IF she can get to that area... we have a real problem.
Note the blue circle I drew..danger zone.
For now.. Erika has the problem.
So if you want to know what will be in Miami or Tampa?
Check with the NWS in your area.
Honest... they update in real time your local forecast.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/
http://www.wsvn.com/link/692618/phil-factor-blog
Phil Ferro on WSVN does a great job.
Read his thoughts.
The NWS is on top of it trust me.
And in a better way than NHC as they are watching a specific area..
They are watching YOUR area...
They have one concern... your safety.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/
Key West
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/
Tampa
http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=tbw
For Bryan Norcross Watchers ;)
Note Bryan Norcross is beside himself.
He is very skeptical it's really a Tropical Storm.
He understands, as do I, why they kept it one.
And for now.. I do think it is one.
As for the National Hurricane Center..
Please read the discussion don't just look at the Cone
The Discussion from the NHC
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/281452.shtml
Please read the entire discussion.
It is easy to understand and well written.
The important point is this...
It goes on to explain she looks poorly.
Last few frames on satellite imagery show that.
Note as of 6 PM she is still firing up.
Still fighting.
Crown Weather says this about Erika.. at 2 PM.
www.crownweather.com
Many people have asked me on Erika and the GOM
With all the attention given to Katrina..
...may I say she is no Katrina.
She's not even a Cleo or a Georges...
But she could turn right towards the dip in the Jet Stream ..
...and continue on over very warm water.
"Erika continues to track nearly due west this afternoon and it looks as though it may slide to the south of Hispaniola and to the south of much of Cuba before finally turning northwestward and heading across western Cuba and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. My forecast is based on the analysis of the low level winds across the Caribbean which are from east to west. These low level winds finally turn to a south to north direction around 80 West Longitude and this is about the point, I think we will see Erika make that turn to the northwest and perhaps even straight north across western Cuba and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico."
I'm worried about a Donna like track...
Something "LIKE" this...
I drew this map earlier this afternoon.
I can see... her going West... turning up through Cuba.
Her forward speed has picked up.
Where ever her center goes her flooding rains will follow.
There is one model that is very reliable that shows..
...her moving up Florida...towards the troubled trof...
And raining for days over a good part of Florida.
Florida needs the rain.
No one needs flooding rain that can't run off..
Also.. Florida has had many Tropical Storms that brought misery.
Poor looking ones like Josephine.
Does that look like a Tropical Storm?
Google her ...
Looks like a frontal system right?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1996josephin.html
BobbiStorm's Bottom Line is:
Watch the storm. Stay on top of it.
If you want to root it dead..go for it.
But wishing doesn't make it so... doesn't hurt to pray.
She might easily be dropped as a Tropical Storm.
And, she could just as easily, be put back if things change.
No way of saying yet... the battle is in real time now.
Life in paradise has it's problems on rare occasion.
Hurricane Season can bring those problems.
Hurricanes hardly happen.
Tropical Storms can bring misery.
This one brought death to the Caribbean.
So......
Make your list.
Decide what you would do IF...she makes it past Hispaniola.
As I told my son..
Rx filled
$ out of ATM
Fill up the gas tank..
Food and Water for the storm.
Crayons for the grandson.
Hunker down with your family in a safe spot.
Truth is he knows that drill well.
He's a Miami Kid.. been through storms.
He reminded me Andrew was nothing...
...until she made the turn West.
True... this isn't Andrew.
But he is right.
Really no way of knowing until Saturday Night..
IF.. Erika continues West to Jamaica.......lol (humor.. maybe)
IF .. Erika was knocked out south of Haiti as Danny died there.
IF...Erika is making the turn north and knocking at Florida's door.
Honestly..we will know in 24 hours.
Now is a good time to make a plan.
Enjoy the night ...enjoy the sunrise... go to the beach.
Tomorrow morning.. feel the breeze.
And IF Erika is on her way.
Follow your plan.
That simple.
While I am offline please follow my friends.
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/localweather
Click on your city and you will get local weather.
Example is Key West
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/cities/keywest.htm
If Erika doesn't bite the dust..
...and Jim Williams has been skeptical she survives...
He will be live on air discussing Erika
www.hurricanecity.com
www.canetalk.com ...great message board.
He also picked Key West to be impacted this year by a storm..
Note something important.
A tropical storm is often messy.
The whole area of weather is to be treated with respect.
It's not a classic, pretty storm.
But it moves in tandem carrying dangerous weather.
The wide view loop
See the front dipping down.
IF Erika was a hurricane it would be moving NW already.
She is Erika..she is what she is.. weak, messy...
...and going to cause life threatening floods and mudslides to Hispaniola.
Note... we need to be less ethnocentric ...
People are in misery in the Caribbean right now.
www.stormcarib.com
They are in the Danger Zone.
Whether Erika survives or not...
...it's their storm now so pray for them!
I'll be back after the Jewish Sabbath AKA Shabbos
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
http://www.chabad.org/generic_cdo/aid/253215/jewish/Shabbat.htm
posted by BobbiStorm @ 3:23 PM
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