Hurricane Arthur 5PM Forecast to be Cat 2

This is a beautiful picture of a dramatically compelling weather drama. Arthur has lost his long, lopsided tail and has wrapped the strongest convection around a tight small eye that shows signs of trying to have rapid intensification. Not really, but has that look. Dry air yeah... many a Caribbean Hurricane has intensified with dry air that it dragged kicking and screaming all the way from the Cape Verde Islands. Sometimes a system or a person with a disability learns how to overcompensate for the disability and accomplishes things no one thought it could do. For instance we have a Category 2 Hurricane in Early June cruising towards a landfall in Down East North Carolina.  Note how the strongest weather in the image above is already well inland. The same way that days ago it lashed South Florida with bands of strong rain from far away.. Arthur is doing it again.

Read this later and note that days ago I said that the Invest that would become Arthur was sneaky. He still is sneaky.

Pressures are lower than 980 according to Recon and winds have been found at the surface above 100 MPH. That IS a Category 2 Hurricane...whether the NHC ups it in name or not. What is in a name. Look at that image above. If you have been researching hurricanes as long as I have you would know how to recognize the structure.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/06/nhc-gives-invest-91l-red-circle-ups.html
(post on Arthur being sneaky and having surprises.

At 5PM the NHC put out an advisory keeping Arthur at 90 MPH forecasting it to become a Cat 2 in the near future. They have the final word....officially....though TWC is issuing their own excellent intensity forecast with a track with this storm.

Salient part of the 5 PM is that they have moved the cone a bit to the West.. Seems the front is late (much like El Nino) and therefore Arthur is going further west than the 11 AM advisory indicated. Who knew? Me... Michael Watkins.. many online knew. The NHC has played a very conservative game with this storm. I understand why... but I don't agree with them totally. Time will tell. I think Arthur already is by most standards stronger and a Cat 2.

" The new NHC track has been shifted

westward and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models through 36
hours.  The updated track now shows landfall in eastern North
Carolina or the Outer Banks later tonight."

"While in most cases this westward shift in the track will be
immaterial to impacts, it does mean that the hurricane's strongest
winds are now more likely to be experienced along the Outer Banks,
rather than remain offshore.

NHC public advisories will be issued every two hours beginning at 7
pm EDT this evening and Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued
on the hour between each Public Advisory to provide hourly position
updates.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 33.4N  77.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 35.3N  76.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 38.2N  72.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 41.9N  68.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 45.2N  64.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP"

Note the new 5PM cone puts OBX almost in the middle of the Cone.

The marine warnings known as 1-2-3 This forecast is for marine weather for ships.

It's a good guide to watch if you live near the ocean, a bay or river.

Now...going back to my previous discussion on how and why I think this is a Category 2 and why we really need to watch this very tricky hurricane.

This was how it looked earlier today. That is a picture of the core of the storm... enhanced with color to be able to study it from the Navy Site known as NRL. Note the weather is no longer on the East Side of the Hurricane but on the WEST side closest to land. Tornado Warnings have been up off and all all afternoon for parts of NC.

Ladies and gentleman... meet Hurricane Arthur. He is no longer the  BETA version but the new improved version ready for upgrade!

Again he is not a dot on the map. His bands extend far inland and severe weather (tornadoes) can appear far from the eye that is very noticeable and very tight. A beautiful hurricane that has suddenly become very photogenic.

Hurricane Arthur is a different storm this afternoon than it has been for the past several days. It's as if it knows this is no longer dress rehearsal but opening night!

The track from the NHC has been good, more or less good, however the intensity forecast has been off all along. It's good to be conservative sometimes, but not with an intensifying hurricane on a big July 4th Weekend when the word needs to be clear that they all need to steer clear of the Carolina Coast. As a matter of fact mandatory evacuations are underway for people on Cape Hatteras.

I know people love Cantore on the coast screaming into the wind, but I prefer Cantore in the studio doing the water vapor loop and pointing out inconsistencies.

So using my old school favorite WV Loop... note that the weather that is associated with Hurricane Arthur is ALREADY moving on shore and far inland. Where is the hurricane? Is the EYE the hurricane or is the whole structure of the storm with all it's bad weather, high winds and strong surf the hurricane. IF so... Hurricane Arthur is making landfall. If the Eye doesn't cross land it is considered an off shore hurricane. Tell that to the people who have to wait for Insurance Adjusters to appraise their damaged property or for FEMA to show up.



http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif

You can see Arthur moving up towards the front that is moving down to meet him and usher him hopefully out to sea.

As for me... I'm going to a wedding in less than an hour out on Long Island. I have to get dressed, made up and find my silver high heels on the bottom of the floor of the closet.

I was speaking a little while ago with the neighbor who is living in the 2nd floor of his bay front home as the first floor was damaged by Hurricane Sandy 2 years ago. He gutted parts and is waiting for the government to sign off on....... well ..... you know how that goes.

Where July Hurricanes go trouble follows later in the summer.

Bertha 1996
Fran 1996

Before the famous Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 in September there was a tree trimmer smaller hurricane in July.

Irene 2012
Sandy 2014

You get the picture. I can't say what the NHC will say in the next 30 minutes.

I know what I have to say...

The shoot out between the GFS and the EURO has to stop. It's like arguing which is better the iPhone or the Galaxy S5

Enough is enough. Stop giving so much attention to the model discussion and look at the hurricane, make a call and do not be afraid to go with one or the other. Drawing a line down the middle works well at times, other times not. We need good discussion from the NHC the way we used to get it. Weather people waited with baited breath for the next discussion... now it is a defense of why they went with one vs the other.

Several models showed this intensification close to the coast, they were discarded and a conservative approach was taken. I like conservative ..but not with a strengthening hurricane approaching the coast on a Holiday Weekend at a tourist location.

So... I'm going to a wedding... I'll be here later this evening to update.

For now...sit back and watch the beautiful, meteorological ballet as the front approaches Hurricane Arthur.

Note...if you live anywhere in the cone of for Arthur... finish preparations and err on the side of caution. With all luck you will be fine and you will end up having a great 4th of July Weekend. If not..at least you did the best that you could do.



Besos Bobbi

Look at that eye... nice eye for a Category 1 storm.........