Tropical Storm Arthur Almost a Hurricane. Looks Like a Hurricane. 11 PM Update

Quick 11 PM Update ... adding it in here as the logic is the same and not much has changed.

"Still not a hurricane" 

Almost but no cigar it seems... 4 mph short of Hurricane Status.

Cone has not changed much.........

Most salient part of the 11 PM Discussion was this.. models keep pulling left (WEST) so they adjusted the track just a little bit. 

" Arthur is moving through a

weakness in the subtropical ridge towards the westerlies over the
eastern United States. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone
should recurve northeastward ahead of a deep-layer baroclinic
trough moving eastward through the Great Lakes and New England.
While the guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, the
center of the guidance envelope has again shifted a little westward
toward the North Carolina coast.  The GFS has made a rather
significant shift since the previous run, and it now brings the
center of Arthur across eastern North Carolina.  The new forecast
track is shifted a little closer to the coast, but it will stay in
the center of the guidance envelope to the east of the GFS"

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/030255.shtml

Personally had a great day storm chasing with my daughter Dina.. 2 of many pics of today's severe weather in NY

That's Manhattan in the background. Planes taking off from JFK. For a while they stopped taking off and hail began to fall in the sound... we left as there wasn't much of a place to take cover and the lightning was getting closer. We then drove to Long Beach to watch the line further to the South moving off the beach onto the water.

Arthur at 11 PM. Looks like a Hurricane to me..

As for Arthur...He acts up EVERY NIGHT it seems. The models went West today, they may go East tonight. Keep your eye on the storm and the forecast from the NHC. As for Arthur... again an eye like feature pops out. I cannot remember a time when the NHC didn't upgrade a TS because it didn't have Hurricane Force Winds in more than one area. Is that some change in policy? Sort of bugs me. I think they should have upgraded it at 11PM. But...it's not my call.

Please continue reading the post below as again... nothing much has changed. Same logic. Same storm. Waiting on Arthur to make his move to Hurricane Status while he aims at the edges of the Outer Banks.

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. rarely do I just update an old post, but seeing as the NHC did tonight I figure I can too ...

Note there are evacuations going on in the counties in NC where a State of Emergency was declared. 

http://www.wral.com/q-a-all-about-arthur/13783014/

Discussion on steering currents for Arthur and a comparison for Hurricane Bertha below:

As of 5PM 

Intensifying Tropical Storm Arthur is now 70 MPH and just shy of Category 1 Hurricane Status. This is worth noting as the models are in general consensus that Arthur will be at least a Cat 1 in the near future. Some models see Hurricane Arthur becoming a Category 2 and a few have hinted as rapid intensification to Major Hurricane Status. For now... the NHC has kept Arthur a Tropical Storm. It will be hard in the near future to keep Arthur weak. Many have already said that Hurricane Arthur could be a memorable hurricane for parts of the Outer Banks.

Note the new 5 Day Cone from the NHC shows a very close call for OBX if you follow the middle of the cone... either way OBX is well into the Cone.

Hurricane Warnings up for parts of North Carolina.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY...FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY...AND
FOR THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY.

To show you how this intensification has progressed today and why it bothers me the constant discussion on how badly ragged Arthur WAS.........

I would say it is remarkable to see a system pull together so much in 12 hours. The image on the left is 12 hours ago. The image on the right is about 12 hours ago. 

Also, the environment around Arthur is also evolving. The front is still there, but not as strong as it was and possibly moving too fast to drag Arthur quickly out to sea. The exit window for Arthur to miss the beaches of North Carolina are slowly snapping shut. Most of the models bring Arthur onshore or close to the shore of the Outer Banks. 

The Governor of North Carolina issued a State of Emergency in 25 counties and asked people "not to put their stupid hat on" (something he always says) and pleaded for people not to be foolish or selfish. I believe the selfish refers to the concerns over the loss of revenue from the July 4th Holiday going down the drain with the new Hurricane Warnings up for much of that area.

To best understand what is going on it is always good to look back at history at other hurricanes that have done similar things.

Hurricane Bertha in 1996 was an early July Hurricane that had achieved Major Hurricane Status further to the South and intensified just off shore to just short of Cat 3 status making landfall as a strong Category 2. Later that year Hurricane Fran finished off what Bertha missed.

I know Bertha well. I have a color poster of it and Fran on my wall back in Raleigh. I tracked it online in Miami, but ironically I ended up living in NC. 

No that is not Arthur, but look above at how Arthur looks currently and you can see how Arthur COULD fill in and become a Bertha sort of Hurricane that could wallop Down East North Carolina and the beaches of the Outer Banks.

Even something about them is similar. Each hurricane has it's own form.. shape... structure, but there are similarities between storms in the same place under similar conditions.

Both right sided storms with long tails down into the tropics. Arthur worked hard today setting himself up for what MIGHT be rapid intensification over the next 24 hours.

Again, from the NHC discussion: 

"the NHC forecast calls for

Arthur to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours."

Again history repeats especially with reference to weather.

The NHC report for Bertha.. 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/19960712/19960712.php

Similar, but different. Arthur has stayed closer to the coast than Bertha did in her approach to the NC coastline. 

There is a front and it is moving towards the East. Personally, I'm concerned it is moving too fast to grab Arthur and keep him offshore and out to sea. The front can enhance his convection as it approaches (depending on timing) and he could become absorbed in the front and rapidly fly off to the NE.  There is no lock on that.

Look at this reliable model and it shows Arthur hovering over OBX. As in X marks the spot.

That's one model, but a good one. And, if the models continue to pull to the left and show a stronger hurricane where will it go after the Outer Banks? If something is changing a little now, it will change even more so down the line. Think the Butterfly Effect applied to tropical forecasting... 

Arthur has his roll on now... also something turning in the SW Carib.. but we won't talk on that, just a comment. 

7 Day Loop from the NWS:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

For now... watch and pay attention to Arthur... he's moving North for the 4th of July.

Now if you are living near the coast of NC or VA it would be a good time to review your hurricane plan and check off your hurricane supply list. I am pretty sure that if Arthur passes you by.. you will have plenty of company and time over the July 4th holiday to eat up those hurricane supplies. Seriously, prepare for the worst.. just in case.

If this track gets pulled just a bit to the left..30 or 50 miles... a lot more people are going to have Watches put up for them soon. Just an "if" but enough of one to begin checking out your hurricane plans. Dust them off.. it's been a while.

As for me I'll be here for the storm when it passes by ...somewhere off shore... though I am in the yellow area above. Never really tracked a storm while in NY watching a hurricane to my south. 

Again...Tropical Storm Arthur will become Hurricane Arthur SOON. 

Many could argue he is currently a hurricane, however recon found him short of hurricane strength.

Hurricane Arthur will be a big threat to many coastal towns along the East Coast ..

Which ones?

Keep watching.

I'll update this blog as necessary later today.

Trust me... it may be necessary.

Watch this loop while I am away taking a walk along the water with my daughter.

If you see GREEN... Arthur will most likely have earned Hurricane Status

Ps Really been watching that west bound wave that had a roll on in the Carib this week, but got no mentions by the NHC. Also... the wave train is rolling. If you save those hurricane supplies, you may need them in a few weeks ...

Note he is in a building stage... grows, gets dark..expands out... starts over.

Enjoy him while he is in that state and not the state of a Category 2 Hurricane.

Besos Bobbi

Ps... be back later...again watch the trend which has been more to the left (west) and a 

stronger hurricane... study history... history repeats weather wise..