Trying to Reason with Tropical Storm Arthur... Which way will he go? Which beach feels his tropical energy??

Tropical Storm Arthur is sitting off shore ... blowing tropical kisses in every shower that reaches the beaches of Florida.

The wind is blowing harder to rephrase Jimmy Buffett and yet "they say" not to worry he will turn before he hits the coast. They being the NHC and yet... they did put up watches along the East Coast. So, will he turn before he runs out of room to make the turn back to the North towards other popular ports of call.

This is the track currently set for Tropical Storm Arthur. It is worth noting many models do take him up to hurricane strength.

This track (IF IT STAYS OFF SHORE OF FLORIDA) is a problem for the following places.

1. Myrtle Beach/Wilmington
2. Outer Banks AKA OBX
3. Del Marva & Cape May Are
4. Long Island, especially the Eastern Tip
5. Cape Cod and Canada beyond that.

It is possible that the OBX area may be dealing with a Hurricane this July 4th. The Thursday before could find beach goers in Myrtle Beach staring out their balconies down onto the beach watching strong surf. Note... after the storm go look for shark's teeth... good pickings after a storm passes.

My concern with Del Marva, Cape May... Long Island is mostly high surf that can be life threatening on the Southern facing beaches as Arthur cruises by on his way out to sea.

Many people go to the beach for July 4th that do not regularly spend much time there and they are less likely to know how to deal with strong rip currents.

Pass this around to anyone you know who may be going to some beach.. somewhere this holiday weekend if it's on the Atlantic. It teaches them and their friends how to break the grip of the rip current.

http://oceantoday.noaa.gov/ripcurrent/

PASS THE LINK ABOVE AROUND PLEASE..........

The hurricane may miss you, but the rip current can grip you and take you out to sea. You will survive the hurricane ... but not the rip current... if you don't know what to do.

Learn. Watch the video. Pass it around.

As for Arthur himself.

The north side of Arthur has looked better all day. Not better as in more convection, better as in more curvature and more of a sign that it is pulling together. He has a VERY HUGE pocket and storms like this have the inherent danger of ramping up fast and filling in that HUGE POCKET and becoming a strong, dangerous storm faster than those who do not have that huge pocket around them.

As you read this please keep this in mind. He is forecast by the NHC to become a hurricane at some point. Which point? Cape Hatteras? Wilmington? Just off shore Myrtle Beach? Stay tuned in to the forecast and pay attention.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 27.6N  79.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 27.8N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 28.7N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 29.8N  79.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 31.2N  78.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 35.4N  75.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 40.8N  67.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 45.5N  59.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Arthur reminds me a lot of another storm that formed in August of 1971. Beth begin her East Coast run off shore of Miami ... yet Miami is not shown as ever hosting her. She kind of helped wreck my life in ways that were not meteorological though the rainstorms from hell did not make it any easier. Drag that track a bit closer to the coast and you have the track for Arthur. How close Arthur gets is the bigger question? The past is the past, can't do anything about that now... 

Look at that ...formed almost in the same spot Arthur is now.

No real changes to the forecast from the NHC as yet. The link to the Discussion is below. As they say basically an update to the last package.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/011502.shtml

They are still trusting in the turn.. might scrape the coastline of Florida a bit by they covered that with watches from Ft. Pierce to Flagler Beach. If they blink they will put up warnings... so keep on top of changing weather in those areas ... please.

Looking at Arthur you see a developing tropical storm. Plain and simple.. he is pulling it slowly together in the same breeding ground that other East Coast Cruisers have done before.

Note the consolidation of the big, huge red circle in the middle.. and in all directions.

Looking good Arthur.. big, red ball of tropical trouble.

You should be able to see that he's pulling it together and intensifyng...my daughter sees it. You should be able to too. I would imagine they will up the wind speed at least 5 mph, 10 mph if they are generous.

Nothing really new to add to my previous forecasts. IF you live near a beach in the cone or near the cone zone... keep watching the weather for news. Tropical weather is fluid and changes in real time and does not always read the discussion from the NHC like we do.. 

I will discuss steering currents tomorrow. Obviously a front is supposed to grab him... it's all a matter of timing. Not very easy to reason with a tropical storm, but we try.... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xg-zwba7l5w

Besos Bobbi

Ps... Yes, I was not kidding or hyping the situation yesterday as this storm can make a big economic dent for some beach town along the coast. Those towns cannot recoup those losses. If you go out into the ocean and get swept away in a rip current... your family cannot recoup that loss. 

Please........watch the video above and pass it on to anyone you know who may be going to the beach this weekend while Tropical Storm or Hurricane Arthur is doing his thing.

http://oceantoday.noaa.gov/ripcurrent/



PASS THE LINK ABOVE AROUND PLEASE..........