Tropical Storm Arthur Moving Towards North Carolina Coast OBX - TS Warnings UP for NC Coastline into VA

Tropical Storm Arthur is slowly intensifying, consolidating and on it's way to a stronger system in the short term. Above is a perfect example of a Tropical Storm. I want to stress this as it's important for people to remember this is currently a "TROPICAL STORM" and not a beautiful, photogenic Category 2 Hurricane nor is it Hurricane Sandy. It is Tropical Storm Arthur and we need to deal what the effects of Hurricane Arthur could do to anything in it's way. That includes, but is not limited to beach damage, flooding, high surf, strong winds, riptides as well as a threat to ships at sea.

Each hurricane brings it's own danger and tells it's own story. Keep your eye on the hurricane that is dancing dangerously close to your town, not the ones that live in your memory or in the history books. And, do not judge Arthur by the fact that he is currently "just a tropical storm" as tropical storms sometimes grow up to be big hurricanes.

Compare and contrast Arthur above with Hurricane Sandy as a Category 3 below.

Now let's go wide and look at the big picture today on July 2nd, 2014.

We see a 60 mph Tropical Storm named Arthur off the East Coast of Florida. We also see a Cape Verde Wave coming off of Africa to the far right and we also see a rather weak trof across the US. It was a wild system the last few days, however it's bugging me this morning as it seems way too weak to pick up a weak tropical storm.

Loop the loop and look for yourself:

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

I like to trust the models, however they agree a bit on Arthur on both timing and track. The reason for that is that timing is always connected to track as well as intensity.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif

Another loop to watch is below. Shows things in the Atlantic getting sketchy and the front moving slowly towards it's interaction with Arthur.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 2
Location: 29.1°N 79.1°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

Let's start with what is going on NOW in the Tropical Storm Arthur.

"CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING
PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA"

What does that mean? Easy.

There is a strong possibility that the coast of North Carolina could feel TS winds.

That area goes all the way up to the VA border including both Pamlico & E Albermale Sound.

The TS for Florida is discontinued as TS Arthur has his sites on the coast of N. Carolina.

Today is the day for Tropical Storm Arthur to pull himself together, consolidate, build... intensify into that Hurricane that the models see him becoming down the road. Will he live up to his potential? We will know soon enough. I think the models will win this one, as they have been on target with Arthur since he was a rainstorm over Alabama. The problem is ...how much will the models change between today and tomorrow and down the road for Friday when he could be moving towards  the East tip of Long Island or Cape Cod.. or out to sea... 

Models:

Tomorrow?

Wrightsville to Kitty Hawk are ground zero for TWC and every other news channel tomorrow as every one's got tickets to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

What I want to talk about today is really the concept of "coastal cruisers" and understanding how hard it is to forecast them down to the exact mile they will or won't stay off shore. This is basic Hurricane History 101, however... it came to the USA a little bit early this year.  A storms are usually down in the Gulf of Mexico, or off shore Florida with no plans to run the entire Eastern Coastline. Arthur has dreams of doing that..

Yes, there is A LOT OF HYPE on Arthur...but the reality is that is IS July 4th Weekend and any along the East Coast (especially up in NJ & NY) are a little hurricane shy after Hurricane Sandy.

So, let's stick with Tropical Storm Arthur right now..

Something to look at is the evolution of Arthur. Remember yesterday I spoke on the big pocket he keeps about him. The reason that is a problem is that ...should he intensify rapidly, he is set and primed to fill up that pocket. The bigger a hurricane is off the coast of the East Coast the more surf he can kick up and the bigger the danger is in a miscalculation of his exact path. 

Joe Bastardi is often talking about a "30 mile error" with regard to a storm like this and he is right. That 30 mile error in the path of Charley and Punta Gorda in 2004. Charley was a small, but very strong storm that's approach to the SW Coast of Florida gave storm forecasters headaches. Despite a good forecast, the illusion of where the "line" was in several advisories prior to landfall made many in the "cone" feel as if they were out of direct danger of the strongest part of Hurricane Charley. Yes... 30 miles can make all the difference when a storm is approaching the coast at an odd angle or running parallel to the coastline. The larger the storm ....the wider the area is that needs to worry...and I'd add 50 or 75 mph is a big concern. 

Look at a similar coastal cruiser named Hurricane Floyd in 1999. A huge, big hurricane that stayed safely off shore of Miami (as excellently forecast by the NHC) but was not as kind to North Carolina. The effect of the RAIN on inland flooding there was the issue, not the wind. The destruction of wide swaths of Central America by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 took place when it was a slow moving Tropical Storm .. not when it was one of the most wicked Major Hurricanes in recent times. 

Tropical Storms can do a lot of damage. Category 1 and 2 Hurricanes can also do a lot of damage.

Let's look now at Hurricane Bertha in July of 1996, another early storm to threaten North Carolina. I say that as most of their historic storms hit later in the season in September. But, Bertha came early much like Arthur. Another similar East Coast curving sort of hurricane track.

From Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha_(1996)

"On July 12, Bertha made landfall between Wrightsville Beach and Topsail Beach. Bertha lost hurricane intensity just after landfall. It then accelerated to the northeast along the East Coast of the United States,"

After a while all those tracks look almost the same... give or take 30 or 40 or 75 miles, but the path is the same based on the weather synoptics that are going on in real time as the storm is moving about intensifying or not in real time. It's so fluid... It is why we love to study them, track them and many love to chase them. Each is similar, yet each is unique. 

An example being that the exact path of Arthur over the Outer Banks is not just about where the "eye" goes ... rather how it affects the particular eco system of the Outer Banks. The water gets sucked in and out of the sounds in odd ways that can cause different damage and different problems .. a situation very different from Miami or WPB.  

Ophelia blew the water out of the sound. Another hurricane blew the water up the sound and on and on. The sound was so dry people were able to drive across it. In other cases a too close approach to land can flood inland cities like New Bern

http://www.ourstate.com/nc-highway-12/

http://hamptonroads.com/2005/09/ophelias-winds-push-water-out-pamlico-sound-harbors

http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/08/26/1438158/

two-dead-many-without-power.html

Read this excerpt below from a story on Highway 12:

"Soundside flooding is severe on the northern Outer Banks. Nags Head has been cut off from Manteo as N.C. 12 is impassable in many areas, especially around Sunset Grill and Sanderling. Click here to see raw video of the Avalon pier battered by surf as the storm raked the Outer Banks.

Dozens of families were trapped in Pamlico County near Oriental as flood water pushed 2 feet higher than its crest during Hurricane Isabel in 2003. The National Guard was trying to free people using high-water vehicles, and swift-water rescue teams were on the way. Spotty communications and high wind hampered their efforts. "Phones come and go, cell phones come and go, the Internet comes and goes," said Emergency Management Director David Spruill. "It all depends on how you hold your head."

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/08/26/1438158/two-dead-many-without-power.html#storylink=cpyhttp://www.newsobserver.com/2011/08/26/1438158/two-dead-many-without-power.html

A difference of 30 miles in OBX can make a big difference as to where a hurricane makes landfall or even if it stays off shore.

I'm talking more about North Carolina today as Arthur appears to be leaving Florida for points north. He is in fact moving towards maybe possible points north that include areas affected by Hurricane Sandy which is giving a lot of coastal residents in NJ and NY a lot of worries. I am not going to say "No Worries" as when you have a hurricane to the South of you this time of year you always have to worry and pay attention. You go on with life... but you pay attention to the weather for updates in REAL TIME. Do not base your holiday weekend plans by something you read "the other day" and that is something I hear from people often.
Well, I remember they said on Friday. . ." is something I heard from people who didn't think Hurricane Andrew would happen or that Hurricane Fran in 1996 would make it all the way inland to Raleigh. 

Speaking of 1996... patterns do exist in weather and  this year is an interesting year for many reasons. The weather in NC is HOT and summer came early this year the same way it did in 1996 when Hurricane Bertha showed up on it's doorstep way too soon for most long time residents who "Remember September" and believe June is too soon to worry on hurricanes. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_eFxBoKqk0

Great video by Jim Leonard AKA Cyclone Jim

http://cyclonejim.com/

Good comment on Twitter this morning. So true Mark and Mark knows as he knows Hurricane Country. It's not just a dot on a map it's a system living it's life in real time.

Great link with a well told story of the HMS Bounty's last days off the coast of the Outer Banks.

http://www.tampabay.com/specials/2013/reports/bounty/index2.shtml

My bottom line...

I'm getting tired of mets saying on air how "ragged" he is as he is a 60 mph Tropical Storm. That is what Arthur looks like and tropical storms are often ragged. I don't think he looks so ragged for a tropical storm.

Despite his "ragged" presentation he shows better organization today than yesterday & he has a lot of warm water beneath his wings sitting over the Gulf Stream.

There is some dry air aloft keeping it's intensification in check. That's good or he could easily have become much stronger as  a few models were hinting at yesterday.

Always important to pay attention when the two flagship models do not agree. Timing is in question as gfs & euro do not agree on when he books his trip to OBX as well as the Northeast. Timing in life is everything. I prefer when models agree on timing.

Personally a bit more worried on the presentation of the convection of the trof  moving East that is forecast to pick up Arthur than I am Tropical Storm Arthur that is forecast to be a Hurricane soon.

Nice to show the surf on TWC and then have the "expert" tell the surfers at Wrightsville Beach not to go out in a Hurricane whipped up surf. Yeah.. right. That is how surfers become expert .. practice and they wait and live for a storm to come along like this. That's like whistling Dixie into a strong Nor'easter.. Surfers live in their own world out there...waiting for good waves.

http://dabuh.com/latest-update-tropical-storm-arthur-july-2nd-2014/

If you want to see more models, Mike has loads of them up at www.spaghettimodels.com.

You can also follow along on his Facebook Page. Some really good comments on that page... well worth liking and following.

https://www.facebook.com/TropicalUpdates

As for me I will deal with the discussion of the models later today or tonight depending on how they and Arthur evolve. 

On a personal note I'm in New York for some weddings of close family friends and seeing my kids who live up here. 

I'm writing this blog this morning from the sofa by this window. Most of these homes had 4 feet of water in their basements during Hurricane Sandy. The water covered the streets. You can bet I'm watching this storm as I will be here until after Arthur finishes his journey North.. North-Northeast and Northeast out to sea.

When I finish this post I am going to go sit and have a snack on the deck and stare at Norton Basin and the pilings behind her house that used to be the Bayswater Yacht Club back at the turn of the century. They appear and disappear with high tide. A gentle reminder of days gone by. For that matter every time we go in and out of the City we drive past Breezy Point. I'll talk more on that when the tropics are not busy. The tropics are busy... so keep reading the blog, because at some point I will wax poetic about the bay..the breeze and the old homes in Marine Park.

This is the view for today in my life and no it's not Seattle though oddly looks a bit like it ironically from my daughter's deck.

Last night I was at a wedding in Boro Park dancing, laughing & enjoying being with old friends.

Avi, the groom, sang a song to his wife Sandy :)

They are an adorable couple, loved the wedding.

Some great pics of Bayswater & Far Rockaway back when... 

http://www.farrockaway.com/carol/morpfarrockaway6.html

Besos Bobbi 

Ps...good story to read online:

Great link with a well told story of the HMS Bounty's last days off the coast of the Outer Banks.

http://www.tampabay.com/specials/2013/reports/bounty/index2.shtml