11 AM Hurricane Arthur Update. 90 MPH Moving Faster Close to Cat 2.

981 MB

NNE at 14 MPH

Winds 90 MPH

Quick update of 11 AM NHC Advisory. Note as I write this info from recon has shown 100 MPH winds, yet that was not figured into the 11 AM Advisory. That wind data may not be correct...or it night and we may have a strengthening hurricane prior to landfall and that is never a good situation. 

The track has changed little. So far Arthur seems to be preferring the left lane as he travels closer to the West side of the cone. That would take him over or near the Outer Banks AKA OBX.

Discussion continues to talk on dry slots. I'm not going to cut and paste discussion that I really feel is irrelevant. The 5 AM Discussion missed the intensification to 90 MPH and all it takes is another 4... 5 mph and Arthur could be a Category 2 Hurricane. Dry air aside. Hurricane Arthur seems to have learned how to intensify and work well with dry air. Many big hurricanes have managed to intensify despite ongoing issues with dry air. 

Hurricane Arthur, dry air and all, has sped up and moved up the time frame on land fall a bit. He is now going NNE at 14 MPH.

Keep watching that front that is forecast to pick him up fast. He is moving faster...

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif

Note 12 hours ago and now.. see why I do not want to hear much this morning on dry air messing up the formation of an eye. A hurricane is more than an EYE it is a whole large eco-system that carries with it water that has been pushed up towards the beach. It is squalls out on the Gulf Stream and rip currents, beach erosion from surf. The wind is not always the story, the surf and water damage is especially in towns where beach roads wash out often. 

Before on the LEFT... NOW on the RIGHT... 

The front is moving towards a date with Arthur. 

The water vapor is a picture of an atmospheric ballet that is danced in real time. There is a method to the madness, but sometimes Mother Nature throws you a curve ball so you have to always stay on top the situation.

Wind probabilities published by the NHC show the Outer Banks as easy odds of seeing Arthur up close and personal and with his faster forward speed they may see him sooner rather than later. Also note that Cape Cod and Montauk on Long Island also have high 50% odds of seeing weather from Arthur. Add in Canadian Maritimes also... this is far from over after he moves away from the Outer Banks. 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/031453.shtml

Weather Historians will write much about Hurricane Arthur if he does what Hurricane Bertha did.. or what Hurricane Arthur does if he crosses the OBX as a strong hurricane. 90 MPH can do a lot of damage in some places. In Miami it brought down the entire FPL power grid for over a week in 2005 after Wilma AND Katrina. Again, remember what I said.. patterns persist and another coastal cruiser could be on the way later this season.. a stronger one.  Stay prepared.

CAPE HATTERAS  34 13  87(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  1  94(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X  72(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)

MOREHEAD CITY  34 93   6(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  50 18  72(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  4  47(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)

WILMINGTON NC  34 91   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
WILMINGTON NC  50 36   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
WILMINGTON NC  64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

Please continue reading this morning's previous post 

as it is very relevant and has important information.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/07/hurricane-arthur-unwanted-holiday-guest.html

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. I'll be back as information warrants as it is a very fluid situation and I really do feel Arthur will put his shine on before his date with the front.. meaning a stronger storm with or without dry air. Thank God for that dry air because if he didn't have it ... it is possible he could have made Cat 3 Major Status as a few models hinted at the other day.