Hurricane Arthur.. Unwanted Holiday Guest at OBX. Myrtle Beach TS Warning. Going Cat 2? Possibly

Hurricane Arthur. Eye Open Looking At Ya... Official data as of 8AM.

8:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 3
Location: 31.8°N 78.7°W
Moving: NNE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

*** NOTE *** For many in the path of this storm in the Outer Banks or SOBX the danger is from the flooding, road wash outs, etc..  Do not focus on if the hurricane force winds will stay off shore. The flooding is the problem. This is danger for tourists and visitors more than locals who know this fact well. TWC keeps putting emphasis on how small the actual wind field is for Hurricane Force Winds. That is not the big danger in the OBX area. This storm has pushed a lot of water a long way and beach erosion and road wash outs will trap many who stay and do not know the area well as they are holiday visitors. Remember it's the flooding that is the problem there more than the wind.

Hurricane Arthur was upgraded this morning at 5AM when confirmation of what we saw on the satellite images last night was confirmed by recon. At 8 AM the winds were raised to 80 MPH. Currently recon is in Arthur this morning found winds of 90 MPH so find another upgrade at the expanded 11 AM Advisory. I wouldn't be surprised if Arthur becomes a Category 2 Hurricane. Models did show this earlier in the week, but many discounted that information as bad model runs. Nope... this Hurricane that will most likely go Cat 2 will make a run along the NC coast before it's forecast turn to the NE and out to sea. If the turn is not as sharp then Cape Cod and the beaches of Maine and Canada will be affected by an expanded wind and surf field as Arthur will transform at some point most likely to an extra-tropical storm.  In theory that sounds good, however the wind field expands and things get sketchy far from the exact center of the storm.

Several models yesterday morning hinted at rapid intensification of Hurricane Arthur about where he is currently. Seems those models did a good job of calling this situation. It's not quite rapid intensification, but I would say it's remarkable so far.

Hurricane status was confirmed when the recon that traveled into the storm in the middle of the night confirmed what we saw last night on satellite imagery. Arthur was obviously a hurricane last night, but the NHC waited on recon for confirmation. That is their call and their call is the official call. However, it's obvious he was a hurricane last night and he is a strengthening hurricane this morning.

Lately it seems every year there seems to be a different protocol. I've done this for years and when recon went into a storm and found sustained hurricane force winds the storm was upgraded to hurricane. Recon did find hurricane force winds on their way out of the Tropical Storm yesterday, but because they did not find it where they were looking and in other areas they waited. I don't remember that happening before. It annoyed me. I'm saying it here and it's my blog so I can say it. Either it had hurricane force winds or it didn't. They sent another plane in around 2AM and that plane confirmed the earlier plane's reports and the storm was upgraded. There was talk this morning in discussion on it being upgraded because recon found a "closed eye wall" . . . It would seem to me that with a hurricane affecting so many beach areas along parts of the East Coast going into a Holiday weekend as big as this it would be good to give us much hard data as early as possible.  A hurricane doesn't always have a clearly defined eye ...not one at 75 - 80 MPH. At some point an eye pops out. Sometimes a strong TS can have an "eye like feature"

Anyway... enough of my rant. It just annoys me that even though the parameters are set in stone the translation seems to change often at the NHC.

Who do you trust?
Some trust Greg Postel on TWC. Some trust Joe Bastadi. Some trust only their own local forecasters on their favorite TV channel for the weather. Some go online to my site and other sites and having built up a sense of trust over time... trust what they read.



http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/CLX_loop.gif

My problem is that places like MYRTLE BEACH are going to get very strong squalls from bands in a hurricane just to the East of it that is strengthening and yet all the attention is on Wilmington and Wrightsville Beach and places further NNE on the Outer Banks. I would hate anyone south of the NC border (on the coast) to feel a false sense of safety and do anything foolish at the beach.

The NWS is covering this storm incredibly well at every point along the map. It's good to know that and to access that information. As good as the NHC is ...their job is to look at the storm, it's path and it's intensity. The NWS has the job along the way of focusing microscope like style on their particular place in the path of the storm. But you are not hearing about it on TWC and worried that people will go south to swim.. take the boat out and be caught unaware that Myrtle Beach is ALSO under a Tropical Storm Warning.. While they are not taking the brunt...they are getting weather from Hurricane Arthur NOW and will continue to for some time. Waterspouts, strong winds and flooding can happen when you have a Tropical Storm Warning.

For Myrtle Beach:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.69&lon=-78.9#.U7VY4vldW7J

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
INLAND HORRY...COASTAL HORRY...INLAND GEORGETOWN AND COASTAL
GEORGETOWN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

This was pretty evident yesterday that IF Arthur intensified as the models predicted that the beach areas of Myrtle Beach that run up towards Wrightsville.. including Ocean Isle Beach that faces south would get tropical storm force effects at least in strong squalls if not more.

See my job is not to replay what the NHC and TWC say ... 

... my job is to highlight dangers and thoughts that are not being said else where..

Any place that has prolonged Tropical Storm winds can and will have some damage that will need to be addressed by catastrophic insurance adjusters. Beach roads could be washed out by high surf. The areas north of Myrtle Beach are very low lying places also prone to the same problems that the Outer Banks get with not as much press coverage.

This is a HUGE storm. The image in the TWEET below shows how large. Luckily most of it's weather is to the right, but as it intensifies..and depending on how much it does grow in size or strength the shape of the storm can change some. Please remember weather is fluid. Fronts strengthen, fronts weaken. Storms grow in size and suddenly stop growing. You have to watch it in real time. 

As for places further North... no one covers NC weather better than www.wral.com

I live in NC a good part of the time. Some of the beaches that will be affected are places I love from Johnnie Mercer Pier to Atlantic Beach.

If you want to hear Jimmy Buffett music on their website and see an incredible menu for an ocean front restaurant (with decks that are raised high with a beautiful view) check out this site:

http://www.crabsclaw.com/

Mind you they are not paying me ... I just love the place. Why am I going on and on about it? Because it is a good example of how a Hurricane like Arthur will affect the local businesses. Even if he stays far off shore it will kill their 4th of July business. This place is lucky as it gets a steady local business. Other places really rely even more on Holiday $hoppers in their boutiques, stores, bars, restaurants and you name it any type of tourist business establishment you can imagine.

The Crabs Claw is owed by a lady who studied cooking...then came back and opened up a beach place that rivals ANY place I have ever seen in Key West. Her daughters work there.. her grandchildren play there. It's a family owned beach business.. like many.

The Crabs Claw is in the possible path of Hurricane Arthur.

If you are in the path...take this storm seriously. As I said yesterday it is possible (tho maybe not probable) that he can do the same sort of damage that Hurricane Bertha did in 1996. And, AGAIN... patterns persist and the pattern for MORE HURRICANES along the same coast over the next few months is high.

All the talk of the El Nino that was going to save the US from a Hurricane have gone out to sea like a low tide revealing the bones of old structures that went whoosh...gone with a storm.

The view out my daughter's window this morning shows low tide in Norton Basin. If you look carefully you will see a squarish structure at low tide that is barely visible below the surface. Once a long time ago it looked more like this...

Things change.

Weather can change on a dime and even a good forecast can be a busted forecast.

It's important to get the forecast right and with enough time for people to properly assess their situation.

We didn't used to have sites like this online:
www.spaghettimodels.com

We didn't have TWITTER where I share my thoughts with others and read the thoughts of many that I learn much from... as well as message groups in email where we often share information. @Bobbistorm

Drudge is right.. it is a Hurricane Holiday. It's a good chance to get some good Hurricane Prep done for the NEXT HURRICANE.. because trust me on this. There will be another Hurricane and with the pattern set for this year the East Coast may see multiple hits.

Surf's up along the East Coast.

Some of those beaches may not be the same in a few days.

Clean up may take time and money $$$

Added in to the loss of revenue $$$ from the lack of Holiday Beach Goers

Because it seems the biggest unwanted guest of July 4th, 2014 will be 

Hurricane Arthur

Again do not focus on the Outer Banks ... if Arthur leans towards the left and if the front is not as strong as expected he may bother Cape Cod this holiday weekend as well. You'd think people there must be putting up signs saying "Hurricane Arthur Go Home... Out to sea.. Leave us alone"

This is NOT just about North Carolina.

Model Discussion from the NHC shows nothing much has changed. The front comes, catches it.. Arthur becomes one with the front...

After that time, however, the shear increases dramatically
as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off
of the east coast of North America, and global model fields show
Arthur completing extratropical transition by 72 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close
to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 24 hours and is a little
below the consensus after that time.

But note recon found 90 MPH winds in Arthur just now, yet the 5 AM discussion also does not show Arthur being a 90 MPH storm. Will they adjust those winds down to 85 MPH at 11AM or go with 90 MPH?

Time will tell..

Good to know that Hurricane Arthur is beginning to make a right hand turn.. S L O W L Y however he is GROWING in SIZE so his wind field expands.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=ea


Besos Bobbi

Ps I'll be back this afternoon with an update both on models and on Arthur himself.