Cat 2 Hurricane Arthur Does the Outer Banks... Direct Hit. Atlantic Beach, Morehead City, Pamlico Sound..etc.

The one blessing here tonight may be the rapid forward movement of Category 2 Hurricane Arthur as he makes his way NE across the breadth of Pamlico Sound. To understand this you really need to look at a map of the Outer Banks. It's a large area that runs along the coast of NC into VA around Virginia Beach. Normally, when we say OBX we mean Kill Devil Hills and Nags Head and all those beaches where romantic movies take place or Jim Cantore stands screaming into a Hurricane wind.

Note earlier this morning I was worried about the way Cape Lookout hangs out into the Ocean as it juts out into the Ocean just enough for any respectable hurricane to not miss on it's way NE over Pamlico Sound. He is currently forecast to move NE ...though he can wobble a bit along his journey NE out to Sea. He is currently cruising through Pamlico Sound.. affecting towns along the Sound and expected to make landfall again from the back side of Kill Devil Hills. That could change in real time tomorrow morning. Kure Beach or Corolla or any beach along the way on his way out to sea.

I'm going to point out some things I said over the last few days that were all correct. It has upset me today that many saw this unfolding and yet the NHC held onto long discussion on his inherent weakness with "dry air in the eye" and refusing to up the wind speed despite evidence many had privy to that would show Arthur to be a Category 2 by 5PM when they refused to upgrade. They did later at 8PM but it should have been done at 5 PM for many reasons..other than the obvious that it was a Category 2 and also that it was taking a a track along the West side of the forecast cone. Enough with the "nudging the track a bit to the left" talk and owning up to whatever short comings were in earlier forecasts.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/07/hurricane-arthur-5pm-forecast-to-be-cat.html

Note that this same methodology created a furor over Hurricane Charley's forecast track as it kept being nudged a bit with each forecast and then they said "well it was in the cone" and it was but it is about the perception of the path the storm is taking and the information that is being received and misunderstood by the general public.

Below is what I wrote. Note earlier today and I mean a good 6 hours earlier we were discussing online the slow movement of the trof that began to retrograde back a bit and the in turn the faster movement and intensification of Arthur. While the NHC was discussing "dry air in the eye" many mets online were wondering if it was indeed an eye wall replacement cycle which happens prior to and while intensifying. 

It's nice at 5 PM they mention it might make landfall after days of saying the track would most likely stay off shore while quietly pulling the cone a bit more to the right on each advisory.

Also I don't want their justification. It's not the GFS fault or the ECMWF the buck does not stop with the models but with the forecasters at the NHC so ... enough with the justifying their track. Maybe we need two discussions.. one about the storm and the other for model justification.

"At 5PM the NHC put out an advisory keeping Arthur at 90 MPH forecasting it to become a Cat 2 in the near future. They have the final word....officially....though TWC is issuing their own excellent intensity forecast with a track with this storm.

Salient part of the 5 PM is that they have moved the cone a bit to the West.. Seems the front is late (much like El Nino) and therefore Arthur is going further west than the 11 AM advisory indicated. Who knew? Me... Michael Watkins.. many online knew. The NHC has played a very conservative game with this storm. I understand why... but I don't agree with them totally. Time will tell. I think Arthur already is by most standards stronger and a Cat 2.

" The new NHC track has been shifted

westward and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models through 36
hours.  The updated track now shows landfall in eastern North
Carolina or the Outer Banks later tonight.""

At 11 AM I wrote that it was apparent that Arthur would visit the Outer Banks.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/07/11-am-hurricane-arthur-update-90-mph.html

"Quick update of 11 AM NHC Advisory. Note as I write this info from recon has shown 100 MPH winds, yet that was not figured into the 11 AM Advisory. That wind data may not be correct...or it night and we may have a strengthening hurricane prior to landfall and that is never a good situation. 

The track has changed little. So far Arthur seems to be preferring the left lane as he travels closer to the West side of the cone. That would take him over or near the Outer Banks AKA OBX.

Discussion continues to talk on dry slots. I'm not going to cut and paste discussion that I really feel is irrelevant. The 5 AM Discussion missed the intensification to 90 MPH and all it takes is another 4... 5 mph and Arthur could be a Category 2 Hurricane. Dry air aside. Hurricane Arthur seems to have learned how to intensify and work well with dry air. Many big hurricanes have managed to intensify despite ongoing issues with dry air. 

Hurricane Arthur, dry air and all, has sped up and moved up the time frame on land fall a bit. He is now going NNE at 14 MPH."

Note I said "take him over or near the Outer Banks" as a Category 2 landfalling hurricane.


At  JULY 3RD... this I wrote about Atlantic Beach ...BECAUSE..I was pretty sure IF he didn't go out to sea first and stay safely off shore he would blast through Salter Path, Atlantic Beach and Beaufort.
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/07/as-of-5pm-intensifying-tropical-storm.html

"I live in NC a good part of the time. Some of the beaches that will be affected are places I love from Johnnie Mercer Pier to Atlantic Beach.

If you want to hear Jimmy Buffett music on their website and see an incredible menu for an ocean front restaurant (with decks that are raised high with a beautiful view) check out this site:

http://www.crabsclaw.com/

Mind you they are not paying me ... I just love the place. Why am I going on and on about it? Because it is a good example of how a Hurricane like Arthur will affect the local businesses. Even if he stays far off shore it will kill their 4th of July business. This place is lucky as it gets a steady local business. Other places really rely even more on Holiday $hoppers in their boutiques, stores, bars, restaurants and you name it any type of tourist business establishment you can imagine."
I suppose my point is that this was not a surprise... it was evident all day that the front was not grabbing it and he was intensifying

I really do believe Arthur will be the first of a few hurricanes born close in that threaten the US. They have to be better. I love the NHC. They do a great job, but sometimes... things get weird and they seem to err on the side of validating their last forecast for continuity sake rather than go with the obvious changes in the storm. There is a stubbornness there that is counter productive sometimes to their job. Hate to complain as they are historically incredible lately... but... they were slow to adjust their sails... to the winds of change. I hope post game analysis they review their action or inaction on this.

I'm worried because I think this will be a busy season for hurricanes close to land. Pattern is set and El Nino is late..

Now back to current news. By the time you read this Arthur will have left the Outer Banks behind and we will know more about the damage he has done.

May I say here.. from my new knowledge of NC storms a hit threading the Sound is a bad scenario as you get a flooding effect where the sound washes over the island chain from the backside...then sometimes back the other way.


To correct something said on TWC... OBX is not hilly... Kill Devil Hills is in a few places where there are dunes... most of the area is flat, low lying barrier islands far out in the Atlantic Ocean not close in like Miami Beach.

At 2 AM... Arthur is moving towards the ocean ... probably south of Kill Devil Hills.. maybe closer to Kure but only time will tell.

200 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

...2 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF ARTHUR MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND...

A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN PAMLICO SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 70 MPH...113 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 96
MPH...154 KM/H. A U.S. COAST GUARD STATION JUST WEST OF CAPE
HATTERAS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH...95
KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 83 MPH...134 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF MANTEO NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

Now what?

When I wake up I'll write about what has happened and where Arthur is going..

For now I am posting the always excellent Navy map from the NRL site. Anyone in the shaded area should pay close attention to this fast moving hurricane. Middle of the path and inside the circles is the area most likely to tango with Arthur.


Damage reports and his future track will be discussed more in depth in a few hours.

I was at a huge, Cat 3 Wedding on Long Island tonight... my daughter was a bridesmaid for her friend who I have watched grow up... big, fun evening. You get the idea... always good to gather your good memories while ye may...

Tomorrow the rain may fall... and the wind may blow. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams or ... Good Morning..

Bobbi
Ps...any typos sorry... it's 4:30 AM and I've danced most of the night away...while checking Twitter nonstop at the wedding on my phone ;)

Note the ABSOLUTE BEST DISCUSSION ON ARTHUR SO FAR WAS TONIGHT'S FORECAST. Beven did a good job explaining what was happening in the storm... wish they were all so good.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/040301.shtml

"WTNT41 KNHC 040301

TCDAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

The eye of Arthur is about to make landfall near Cape Lookout,
North Carolina.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 94 kt and SFMR winds of 79 kt
in the southeastern eyewall.  The lowest reported central pressure
was 976 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity was
increased to 85 kt.  Coastal radar data indicates a well-defined
20-25 n mi diameter eye is present, and the eye is also apparent in
infrared satellite imagery.

Arthur is accelerating toward the northeast due to the approach of
a baroclinic trough over the northeastern United states, and the
initial motion is now 035/16.  A continued northeastward motion and
acceleration are expected during the next 24-36 hours.  The
forecast track calls for the center to cross coastal North Carolina
during the next several hours, pass southeast of New England in
about 24 hours, and be near or over western Nova Scotia in about 36
hours.  After that, the westerlies are expected to steer Arthur or
its remnants across Newfoundland into the North Atlantic.  The
forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the
center of the guidance envelope for the first 72 hours.

Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours
as the eye of the hurricane crosses coastal North Carolina and the
adjacent northwestern Atlantic.  After that, Arthur is expected to
undergo extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete
by the time the cyclone reaches Nova Scotia.  After passing Nova
Scotia, a post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the
North Atlantic."