TD 5 Forms in the Eastern Atlantic From Cape Verde Wave
That's a strong signature on the Funktop and Dvorak also shows TD 5 with a concentrated core of strong energy.
Earlier this morning I did say this could happen and was pretty sure it would as it was pulling together faster than the area in the Caribbean. I also said earlier that timing is everything and that I thought the timing on the Caribbean system was "off" in the models. If the timing is off...the track is off. Remember that..
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 23.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WNW at 14 MPH...not 22MPH notice that?
As for the Caribbean System it has a red circle and a 70% chance of forming as of 8 PM Wednesday evening.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...AND IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
Will be back in the morning with better analysis based on the models that come in this evening and IF Recon does go down into the Caribbean system we will know for sure a few things.
Where the center is...
IF it has a center...
The rule of thumb with models is the old rule of thumb with computer data..
Garbage in...garbage out...
Better into...better modeling.
And, that is the way it is tonight when the 5th Tropical Depression of the Atlantic Hurricane Season formed.
Getting busy round here and going to get way busier.
If the Caribbean system does not wrap up faster there will be more rain in South Florida and the Keys. If it stays weak it will go west or wander a bit and linger down there a little longer like a good country song.
Sweet Tropical Dreams
Ps... Miami is sooo sooooo sooooooooo beautiful. Love it!