Model Confusion on Gulf of Mexico Tropical Storm -- BobbiStorm's Magic 8 Ball
Let's keep the above map in mind. Our focus currently is on the SW Caribbean where pressures should lower and spin should start to show it's face if the current model output is correct concerning development of a Gulf of Mexico bound tropical entity. I say entity because the models so far differ greatly on intensity of this expected tropical system.
Some models take this little piggy up into the Upper Gulf Coast as a stronger storm and others take this little piggy towards the NW Coast of Florida (with each new model run pulling East aka "Right") and still some models want to take this little piggy west as a weak disturbance caught in the lower level flow.
We have a lot of players here in this game that will affect where and how the little piggy gets to the market and how far it goes and if it goes all the way home or not.
1. The system has to show itself and it is currently riding in cloak mode as a bit of rain with some low pressures. Nothing to write home about there.
Showing visible loop here as the visible shows you more things than the Water Vapor or other loops imply.
Keep watching "down there" north of Panama and south of Jamaica. Something going on but it's on a slow simmer right now.
2. You have to watch the flow of shear, winds and latent heat/moisture content in the area to the north of that where a system would go to see how favorable the flow is and how kindly it would be treated if it tried to develop.
Does it have a window of opportunity. A definite maybe in the short term.
2. You have to keep looking UP river to see what the atmosphere holds in store for this system IF it pulls it together as far as steering currents.
Do you see any diving fronts? I don't.
I do see a strong Atlantic High pushing in for the next few days ..of course it can also snap back to the East for a few days, but for now it's strong. Fronts are to the north and sliding east, though one can dive down in a few days. Will it catch a weak system? Probably not. Will it catch a strong system? Probably yes.
3. The 7 day NWS loop does not show that front "sweeping through" but lolly gagging around in the South playing peek a boo with the Coastal South and not sure if it's ready for prime time. Climo would support it doing just what the NWS says it is doing. So, if that is true where is the motivation for a strong system to barrel north into the high as a few models show it doing? Something off there..needs resolution with reality if you ask me. Unless the models are so good at seeing a different scenario than what most can see currently. And, right now they are "implying" a system could develop, not screaming it will.
Wednesday it shows it being a strong front...
4. What does the 7 day official forecast show...doesn't show the E storm yet moving north towards a strong front diving down. It shows a strong high, a frontal boundary strong enough to make it to Dixie yet too weak to punch further down and a weak, bubble of low pressure sliding west towards Mexico.
Have to respect the NWS NOAA 7 Day Maps, they are good. Unless something changes...
And, its worth noting that the official 7 day shows what the European model currently shows. A weak system moving westward. That can change in real time if the storm does develop more. It would imply that the Euro is skeptical that the upper level winds favor development of a stronger system.
Loop the loop:
mystery song to loop by...gotta click it to see it... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P55RlFLWIOU
The Canadian Model that was singing those blues yesterday with a stronger storm are now taking a weaker storm towards the Upper Gulf Coast ...go figure...
The key here ...the secret in the tropical wind is if the timing is off and that system stays down there a little longer and pulls itself together more in it's semi-protected bubble in the SW Caribbean before it heads north and the High pulls a bit to the right (as the NWS loop does FORECAST it to do) maybe the table will be turned enough for us to get a named system in the Tropical Atlantic again.
Maybe. That is my keyword for this year: Maybe.
Ps Note the NWS "FORECASTS" whereas the models "IMPLY" and "HINT" at development. When they stop hinting and start screaming the E storm's name wildly... then we can get into deeper talks on where to rent a hotel room for a hurricane play date along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Ha..if this was November it would develop and head ENE out towards the Atlantic.. but it's August still.
And, yes Virginia I AM ignoring the Eastern Atlantic and Africa for another day or two ;) Tired of playing Fantasycane. Trust me though...something WILL develop in the near future ... week to 10 days out.