Model Confusion on Gulf of Mexico Tropical Storm -- BobbiStorm's Magic 8 Ball

Let's keep the above map in mind. Our focus currently is on the SW Caribbean where pressures should lower and spin should start to show it's face if the current model output is correct concerning development of a Gulf of Mexico bound tropical entity. I say entity because the models so far differ greatly on intensity of this expected tropical system.

Some models take this little piggy up into the Upper Gulf Coast as a stronger storm and others take this little piggy towards the NW Coast of Florida (with each new model run pulling East aka "Right") and still some models want to take this little piggy west as a weak disturbance caught in the lower level flow.

We have a lot of players here in this game that will affect where and how the little piggy gets to the market and how far it goes and if it goes all the way home or not.

1. The system has to show itself and it is currently riding in cloak mode as a bit of rain with some low pressures. Nothing to write home about there.

Showing visible loop here as the visible shows you more things than the Water Vapor or other loops imply.



Keep watching "down there" north of Panama and south of Jamaica. Something going on but it's on a slow simmer right now.

2. You have to watch the flow of shear, winds and latent heat/moisture content in the area to the north of that where a system would go to see how favorable the flow is and how kindly it would be treated if it tried to develop.

Does it have a window of opportunity. A definite maybe in the short term.



2. You have to keep looking UP river to see what the atmosphere holds in store for this system IF it pulls it together as far as steering currents.

Do you see any diving fronts? I don't.



I do see a strong Atlantic High pushing in for the next few days ..of course it can also snap back to the East for a few days, but for now it's strong. Fronts are to the north and sliding east, though one can dive down in a few days. Will it catch a weak system? Probably not. Will it catch a strong system? Probably yes.

3. The 7 day NWS loop does not show that front "sweeping through" but lolly gagging around in the South playing peek a boo with the Coastal South and not sure if it's ready for prime time. Climo would support it doing just what the NWS says it is doing. So, if that is true where is the motivation for a strong system to barrel north into the high as a few models show it doing? Something off there..needs resolution with reality if you ask me. Unless the models are so good at seeing a different scenario than what most can see currently. And, right now they are "implying" a system could develop, not screaming it will.

Wednesday it shows it being a strong front...

Then Thursday it shows it gone off in Jimmy Buffett fashion looking for Margaritaville and in this case I do not mean Key West. 

What a difference one day can make . . . 

Suddenly it's singing a different tune... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qlppj5RcyF0

4. What does the 7 day official forecast show...doesn't show the E storm yet moving north towards a strong front diving down. It shows a strong high, a frontal boundary strong enough to make it to Dixie yet too weak to punch further down and a weak, bubble of low pressure sliding west towards Mexico.

Have to respect the NWS NOAA 7 Day Maps, they are good. Unless something changes...

And, its worth noting that the official 7 day shows what the European model currently shows. A weak system moving westward. That can change in real time if the storm does develop more. It would imply that the Euro is skeptical that the upper level winds favor development of a stronger system.


Loop the loop:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

mystery song to loop by...gotta click it to see it... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P55RlFLWIOU

The Canadian Model that was singing those blues yesterday with a stronger storm are now taking a weaker storm towards the Upper Gulf Coast ...go figure...

Which is kind of a flip flop in that a stronger system would go north and a weaker system west...hmnn.

The GFS takes a very weak system towards the Big Bend of Florida. Waiting for it to go to Tampa on the next few runs which would imply a very strong cold front for the 3rd week in August to get that much of a bend, but it keeps bending right.

BobbiStorm'sBottom Line:

If I was playing with a Magical 8 Ball I'd leave it with a friend for safe keeping lest I throw it against a wall hard and damage it...  

Models are not real bullish on a real tropical cyclone though that can change and probably will with every run, especially if it begins to come together in reality vs fantasycane land.

For now it looks like P-Cola Beach is going to get more rain and so is Georgia and Georgia doesn't need anymore. 

How different is the pattern from when the first storm hit that region not so long ago?

Back in June Andrea did a similar path IF some of those GOM models verify..

That is the pattern for RAIN... tropical rain, any rain, frontal boundary trying to get their rain. Rain wants to go to NW Florida and Georgia right now. And, no they don't want anymore but as the old saying goes "when it rains it pours" and that's where old sayings come from... reality not model tripping.

Use the goal posts of the Yucatan and Cuba as a bar for development. Conditions to the north of their are not good for a developing system because of the strong flow East to West from the High over Florida. IF a system develops to the south and can head into those winds, find it's groove and the front budges more to the south a tropical ballet can develop between the two and something might give.

Note... two side bars here...one is if something in the Epac develops you can pretty much forget about anything developing that strong on our side of Panama. If that system out in the Atlantic which is not tropical in nature but really kicking up it's heels and spinning becomes stronger or drops down to Mid Level Development of any kind that could also mix up the current forecast for the six and seven day forecast.

You tell me HOW a weak system buts into that ridge and notice how the ULL out there is cranking it up even stronger. What a high... what a guy.... Oh my...

The key here ...the secret in the tropical wind is if the timing is off and that system stays down there a little longer and pulls itself together more in it's semi-protected bubble in the SW Caribbean before it heads north and the High pulls a bit to the right (as the NWS loop does FORECAST it to do) maybe the table will be turned enough for us to get a named system in the Tropical Atlantic again.

Maybe. That is my keyword for this year: Maybe.

Besos Bobbi

Ps Note the NWS "FORECASTS" whereas the models "IMPLY" and "HINT" at development. When they stop hinting and start screaming the E storm's name wildly... then we can get into deeper talks on where to rent a hotel room for a hurricane play date along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Ha..if this was November it would develop and head ENE out towards the Atlantic.. but it's August still.

And, yes Virginia I AM ignoring the Eastern Atlantic and Africa for another day or two ;) Tired of playing Fantasycane. Trust me though...something WILL develop in the near future ... week to 10 days out.