Satellite loop to watch:
Currently there is nothing much going on in the tropics. I waited today for the next set of models to run before posting my thoughts on the possibility of tropical trouble in the Gulf of Mexico. There has been a lot of discussion today when the GFS model showed a land falling system along the Upper Gulf Coast. You know the drill, a wave ...some convection, lower barometric pressure... a front dipping down. Mind you the last front stalled out and North Carolina had record hot temperatures this weekend..or close. This front would be in the mid section of the country, but still way too far out for the crystal ball to give a good reading on what the future holds anywhere along the Gulf Coast. But, I think it's fair to say that somewhere, sometime along the Gulf Coast something is going to form soon. And, after that bar is reached in the tropical season...look East as the Atlantic will percolate!
Until then we are watching models predicting development! And, anyone who tells you other wise is not being honest. Everyone likes to hype systems and scream shark at a crowded beach it seems. In a few days no one will be hyping, they will be discussing what actually forms...if the models are right.
The first good model showed a storm hitting Mobile Bay. The next run crossed the tip Louisiana and crossing over towards the Alabama/Florida line. The next model was a weaker hit of a storm in the general area, but closer to the Florida border. Who knows what the next run will be in a few hours.
The Canadian Model is showing a much stronger system hitting the Texas coastline near the Mexican border.
The truth is still yet to be seen, the story has yet to be told, the ending has not been written but we are suddenly watching multiple model runs showing something spinning and that same something making landfall.
There are some attempts at a Cape Verde System far out as well, however it's still dry out there and despite a few waves they are nothing to write home about yet or I would be blogging endlessly on the beauty of some distant wave and the rains over Africa.
A quick look at Africa shows a good wave about to come off the coast in a day or two. The most recent one did have a weak low pressure system attached, but I stress the word WEAK.
The one I like is pretty obvious...it's really the only game in town in Africa tonight.
Nice large pocket, but can it spin and can it maintain itself?
Things ARE changing slowly in the Atlantic Basin.
August 15th is really the unofficial start of the season. Things ramp up fast from there. Be warned. I told you to go shopping this weekend. Mind you the storm doesn't always hit..but the frenzy at the grocery storm does hit if a storm looks like it's going to hit...so it's better to shop when the crowds are home watching TV in AC and relaxing by the pool.
As for me. I'm heading home to Florida which is still home to me in many ways.
I'll be back tomorrow morning after some additional models weigh in and we see how they correlate with today's models.
My daughter has moved in to college and she will be busy with "Welcome Wolfpack Week" so I can hit the road and be busy with "Tropical Welcome Home BobbiStorm Week!"
Hard to say what this season will really be like. So many mixed signals. Some show it to be busier, others show it to be weaker. Others show a quieter season with stronger storms. Hey..seems if they can swim through all the dry air they must be strong swimmers.
Only time will tell.
Check back tomorrow..same tropical place and channel and Hurricane Harbor.
Sweet Tropical Dreams